SPX Notes 2009

buctusa

Baybay, waiting for your updates.............

Diver

I am waiting to see your update for today, too. Thank you.

I think 90 is very unlikely.
0.0.3 shows a breakout of the falling wedge.  The wedge upperline will be retested around 3/31.  (from now to early April).
If goes to 90 and drop to this line, then it  ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-23 22:43

jasmin256

每日必读, 谢谢

bayliner1979

Unchanged swing trade picture: the falling wedge's upperline will be retested around 3/31 (between tomorrow and early April).

Tomorrow likely another (almost) inside bar, fluctuate between 800 and BB upperline.

SPY quarter option OE@3/31 should close at around 80, while QQQQ around 30.
Therefore I held all cash last weekend.
Start to build short position when SPX @ 80x.
This is perhaps my last round short before May 2009.
I am expecting a head-and-shoulder bottom pattern with right shoulder delivered at March 31 quarter OE day.
Will switch to bull side after March 31, as the market condition just changed.  (SPX RSI(14) has broken the barrier.  I think it will go to 70 for sure)
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-23 19:41

benmao

hippo

Ding Smith Laoda,
Today is a BEARISH HARAMI, so tomorrow will be more likely close lower?

KAI2002

，顶

hyf

bay老大：我还是没明白，您现在手里有SHORT仓，在这月底您的目标是70.00么？还是80.00？如果是80.00您就没必要开空仓了，所以不解。谢谢，能给解释一下么？

开小差

804# bayliner1979 . thx

soulvirus

bayliner1979

My position is neutral.
E.g., straddle and strangle.

bay老大：我还是没明白，您现在手里有SHORT仓，在这月底您的目标是70.00么？还是80.00？如果是80.00您就没必要开空仓了，所以不解。谢谢，能给解释一下么？
hyf 发表于 2009-3-24 20:44

Wolf

thanks

小咪

804# bayliner1979


谢BAYBAY

buctusa

Thanks a lot, Baybay!

ivymay99

thanks a lot.

buctusa

Baybay, waiting for your updates.............

torontonian

Aibeibei

waiting for update too ：）

bayliner1979

Unchanged swing picture.

The upperline of falling wedge (also daily MA(50) line) is retested today.
I was looking for 12/10/2008 pattern when the prediction was made.
Today it delivered a similar small-bar spinning top pattern, but with much higher volatility.

Tomorrow likely it will do 12/11/2008 move to retest the falling wedge's upperline again.
Maybe SPX will go to 750 (50% Fib retrace) and go up to 800 @ 3/31.
Maybe it will go up to 830 and go down to 800 @ 3/31.
Or I won't be surprise that we will have a series of Dojis/Small-bar spinning tops up to 3/31.

After 3/31 I am not sure yet.   But before April OE the market should be between 72x (61.8% Fib retrace) and 87x (the iron top since 1/13).

stevenw

thanks