I got confusing picture, it really depends on the market stage:
1. Generally attacking stocks are strong in bull market
2. But when market reaches top, that is also the time attacking stocks hit the top and could not continue and reversal will happen like 2000 and 2007
So now if attacking ones could not continue UP, then a reversal happens, but if it is not top, then there is no upside.
dara 发表于 2009-7-31 04:12 PM 
Although I'm sure that I won't get it all right, this is my humble understanding on the issue you raised:
1) when the economy is weak in recession, in general the defensive sectors outperform the broad market. e.g. XLP in my chart (Feb to March of 2009) . Vice versa.
2) when the market starts recovering, it's always led by aggressive sectors (i.e. XLF XLY etc.) while the defensive issues underperform the broad market most of the time.
3) when a true bull market sets in, the aggressive sectors are still in charge but sector rotation steps in and the defensive sectors join the party to kick indices higher.
So back to your last line question:
I don't see sector rotation really takes place in here to fire up all cylinders, they are as weak (or weaker) as those stalling offensive issues.
Thus they both are running out of ammunition to power the winning battle going forward at the hill top.
That's why I see that this bear market rally has come near to an end upon the rolling tape.
Everybody knows the data is cooked, but it takes guts to have a real action.
Savvy?
 |
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-7-31 03:19 PM
发表于 2009-8-1 12:28 AM
