day-trading UNG 秘诀(稳赚, 请给小钻)

gulf

thanks!

bucks

what's your long-term view on natural gas?

bluecloser

bullish for next year. it has been priced in dude. UNG just has no way to go up. why people don't understand here that natural gas price double does not mean UNG price going up? how much should I teach you guys from basic?

bluecloser

OK. just give you guys an example. suppose there is a contract BBB to track something called AAA. In January 1st, AAA is at 20. Then in August, AAA is at 100. Do you make money in BBB since AAA has gone up almost 4 times? Is your return almost 800%?

OK, now let me tell you what is AAA. It is temperature in New York City. BBB is something like UNG to bet on the up and down of spot temperature. Now go back to do your homework again.

bluecloser

交易有时候很简单。如果你肯动脑，其实每时每刻的价格变化都是由内部的道理的。无论是5分钟，一小时，一整天，一个月还是一年。没有东西是random walk。之所以academia认为市场是random walk，是因为统计上多半支持。可是academia却并没有认真去分析为什么市场表现得好象random walk。他们的解释是：information is priced in as soon as it is there。大错特错，market之所以random是因为:
1. 无脑男的参与;
2. because of reason #1, the market can stay irrational before you can stay insolvent.
由于原因2，聪明的投资者并不总是在赚钱。从而使得所有academia的back-testing都显得统计学上return follow random walk。

以上只是我的一点看法。不知道能不能拿诺贝尔奖。

bluecloser

换句话说，market的random，不是因为其理性，而正是因为非理性。其结局就是在多数情况下以牺牲无脑男的钱达到市场的均衡有效。

bluecloser

大家要小心。今天开始能清空的就清空。我只是觉得向下的可能性极大。你若愿意去冒10%的险，go ahead!

acura

thanks

bluecloser

you are welcome。其实你看看市场的反应，盘前盘后，散户主导的时候，价钱的变化难道没有让你们觉得是在照镜子吗？一定要脱离散户的习惯和行为。散户的动作实在太好预测了。

wlee

the trick worked again today.

buctusa

Sorry, I did not  see this post timely.

I would say some MM might buy put to protect their holding of UNG.

Also, if you do not have faith, do not hold.

If you hold, trust your own judgement and have a plan at hand.

Good luck!

buctusa 老大，

帮忙解释解释,

从文学城来的


没人看到UNG恶庄今天给出的信号？   
来源: goldman2007 于 09-06-08 21:13:29 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]   




      
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gulf 发表于 2009-6-10 00:37

buctusa

Buddy, let the market be the judge!

bullish for next year. it has been priced in dude. UNG just has no way to go up. why people don't understand here that natural gas price double does not mean UNG price going up? how much should I teac ...
bluecloser 发表于 2009-6-10 09:10

bluecloser

not over yet. we have two more months to go. right now just money flow dominates. the power of fundamentals has not come back yet.

buctusa

Let us see.........

IF big MM is on UNG, they will not leave easily................

Anyway, good luck!

not over yet. we have two more months to go. right now just money flow dominates. the power of fundamentals has not come back yet.
bluecloser 发表于 2009-6-11 12:46

bluecloser

贴一个大投行对今天的分析。

Price Reaction
The New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) natural gas futures market rallied initially after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report showing a mildly below-expectations injection into storage, but the more material move higher occurred as the pit trading session wore on. It was still another triple-digit and surplus-expanding build, but the largest force in the current market has clearly become the net inflows into the natural gas exchange traded fund (ETF) — which begins its July-to-August roll period tomorrow.

bluecloser

I would rather bet the crowd will pay back. Institutional holding of UNG is only 5% now.

dara

Dear Buctusa,

Thanks! today I bought 13.87 and sold it 14.00. It seems a little higher now. How do you think today!
gulf 发表于 2009-6-9 12:21

0.13/14 < 1%?

does not worth it.

gulf

77# dara
由于我主要账户就炒这一个指数，同时每次进出的量的比较大，所以1%的利润也还是不小，有时一天进出多次，总体还是不错的。我只是认为炒这个指数，目前风险相对其它股票和指数小的多。或许我比较熟悉这个指数。因为我不懂技术分析，只好找简单的作。一点一点积累。

谢谢你的提醒！

buctusa

Profit is profit no mater small or big...................

Right now I also spend most of my tradeing with UNG. I am lucky that I never lose money from UNG..................

77# dara
由于我主要账户就炒这一个指数，同时每次进出的量的比较大，所以1%的利润也还是不小，有时一天进出多次，总体还是不错的。我只是认为炒这个指数，目前风险相对其它股票和指数小的多。或许我比较熟悉这个 ...
gulf 发表于 2009-6-11 20:08

gulf

79# buctusa
Great! Thanks for your support. I just like you. I lost money in other stock and make profit only when I focus on UNG. 基本上，我的利润都是从UNG来的，不但弥补了在其它股票的损失，还有比较好的利润。

谢谢！