每日灌水--道听途说

feelucky

美国国债市场奏响忧郁蓝调（上）

泡沫已经破裂了。

我们说的是美国国债，而非房地产市场。2008年末时，规避风险的投资者纷纷买入美国国债，推动国债收益率降至几十年来的最低水平。30年期国债的收益率降到了3%以下，短期国债的收益率降到了零。

从那以后，经济就显现出了触底回升的迹象，信贷市场的功能不断恢复正常，股市从3月份的低点大幅反弹。美国国债现在已是熊市，而信贷市场中的公司债券、市政债券和抵押贷款证券等去年底受到冷落的品种则维持了看涨的热情。比如，30年期美国国债的收益率从2008年底的2.82%上升到了4.10%，价格则下跌了20%。

《巴伦周刊》在2009年初的一篇封面文章中曾表示，美国国债已经见顶，而债券市场中的其它品种则已触底。并非只有我们认识到了去年底这种明显的变化。巴菲特(Warren Buffett)曾提到，他的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)在2008年末赔钱抛出了美国国债。巴菲特在2月份致股东的年度公开信中写道，当书写这十年的金融史时，2008年底美国国债泡沫将同本世纪初至2005年前后的房地产泡沫一起赫然在列。而国债市场现在的情形如何？出于几个原因美国国债看来仍没什么吸引力。以历史标准来衡量国债收益率非常之低，为弥补创纪录的财政赤字，美国政府正在大量发行国债，而联邦政府经济刺激计划的巨额支出最终有可能大幅推高通货膨胀率。

Pimco的执行副总裁罗德斯基(Steve Rodosky)说，其他高质量债券的投资价值更大。Pimco经营着美国规模最大的债券基金Pimco Total Return。该基金今年的投资回报率继续领先于同侪，今年迄今为止是4.8%。Pimco的首席投资长埃尔-埃连(Mohamed El-Erian)去年底时曾直言不讳地说，把国债脱手，它们太贵了。

虽然国债持有人最终都能把本金收回来，但国债价格在它们到期之前却有可能大幅下降，投资者作为本息拿回来的美元可能已经大幅贬值。国债收益率未来一年中有可能继续上涨，这意味着随着美国经济开始走强国债价格将会下跌。30年期国债的收益率有可能突破5%，10年期国债的收益率有可能从目前的3.15%升至 4%以上。

2008年的债市主旋律是投资高质量品种，而今年迄今为止的主旋律是脱离高质量品种，因为那些最高的收益率大体上都是由级别较低、更具投机性的证券提供的。垃圾债券和较低评级市政债券的投资回报率已经突破了20%，而政府债券收益率的上升已经成为一种全球性现象。

但即使是最近连涨几个月后，企业债券市场看上去仍然具有吸引力。美林(Merrill Lynch)高收益率指数所涵盖各垃圾债券的平均收益率已经从去年底的19.5%回落至15%，依然不低，而那些有着BBB这一较高评级的企业债券则有着 8%左右的收益率，足足比长期国债收益率高出四个百分点。

市政债券市场2009也一直呈上扬之势，顶级长期市政债券的收益率从5.25%降至4.5%左右，而烟草收入债券和医院债券等评级较低证券的收益率在去年底突破10%以后，目前已下跌了一个多百分点。

30年期高评级市政债券的价格目前看来处于合理水平。去年底时，顶级30年期市政债券的收益率竟然是30年期国债的两倍。而现在，顶级30年期市政债券的收益率为4.5%，只比30年期美国国债的收益率略高。

以历史标准衡量，这二者间的息差依然巨大。人们很难对10年期以下中期债券抱有太大投资热情；它们的收益率都在3%及以下。评级较低市政债券的价格可能还有进一步上涨的空间。

如果美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)能成功将最高一档个人所得税率由目前的35%提高到39.6%，市政债券市场将从中受益，因为税率上调会提高免税利息收入的吸引力。但美国许多州和地方政府的财政状况都一团糟，加州的情况尤其如此，这既是因为经济状况疲弱，也是因为政治家们不愿着手解决政府雇员退休金和医疗成本不断膨胀的问题。

而按揭贷款支持证券领域的两个市场也是冰火两重天。政府国民抵押协会(Ginnie Maes)发行的政府担保证券和房地美(Freddie Mac )及房利美(Fannie Mae)发行的准政府担保证券对投资者没有太大吸引力。这些证券的收益率仅为4%。这意味着Vanguard GNMA等大型基金的投资回报率可能令人失望。这只基金的收益率目前为4.3%。

而另一类风险较高但也更具吸引力的按揭贷款支持证券则是所谓的非机构住宅和商业按揭贷款证券。这些证券的收益率仍在10%以上。在非机构按揭贷款市场有风险敞口的基金包括TCW Total Return，它目前的收益率为10%。

feelucky

Greenspan Says Banks Still Have a ‘Large’ Capital Requirement

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled that the financial crisis has yet to end even as borrowing costs tumble, warning that U.S. banks must raise “large” amounts of money.

“There is still a very large unfunded capital requirement in the commercial banking system in the United States and that’s got to be funded,” Greenspan said in an interview yesterday in Washington. He also said that “until the price of homes flattens out we still have a very serious potential mortgage crisis.”

Greenspan’s comments suggest he sees a bigger capital shortfall in the banking system than reflected in regulators’ stress tests on the 19 biggest U.S. lenders. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers yesterday that banks have issued more than $56 billion in new stock or debt since the tests found 10 firms needed to raise about $75 billion.

A lack of capital at banks may inhibit lending to consumers and businesses, tempering any economic recovery. The former Fed chief, who left the central bank in 2006, said that the continued slump in home prices is putting at risk millions of borrowers.

“We’re on the edge and if this thing doesn’t get resolved quickly I’m worried,” he said before a meeting with House of Representatives members on financial regulation that was organized by the Washington-based Bipartisan Policy Center.

Home prices will only start to stabilize once the “liquidation” rate of single-family homes has peaked, he said. “I don’t think we’re there yet.”

‘Remarkable’ Improvement

More broadly, “things have unquestionably improved” across the economy and financial markets, he said. “They’ve improved everywhere in the world. It’s remarkable.”

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for three- month dollar loans fell 3 basis points yesterday to 0.75 percent, the British Bankers’ Association said, the 35th straight drop. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of banks’ reluctance to lend, narrowed to 55 basis points, the least since February 2008. It was as high as 364 basis points in October.

That’s an “extraordinary improvement,” said Greenspan, who last year said that the credit crisis would be at an end once the Libor-OIS spread narrowed past 25 basis points. “Virtually all of the various credit spreads not only in the U.S. but globally have come down.”

Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman, also said on Capitol Hill that “if there are no more reversals, history will judge that by May 2009 we will have passed the worst of the crisis.”

GDP Call

“My current guess would be in terms of GDP the second quarter will be a bottom and by the third quarter we’re eking out a positive,” Blinder said.

Greenspan agreed, estimating that U.S. gross domestic product will decline at an annual rate of 1 percent in the second quarter.

Members of the Fed’s Open Market Committee who met in Washington April 28-29 saw “some signs pointing toward economic stabilization,” and some officials detected prospects for “a trough” in the housing market’s downturn, according to minutes of the meeting released yesterday in Washington.

Fed governors and district-bank presidents project that the economy will shrink 1.3 percent to 2 percent this year and grow 2 percent to 3 percent in 2010, according to median estimates released yesterday.

Greenspan separately said he opposed the creation of a “systemic risk regulator,” a concept that has been backed by the Obama administration and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. The agency would be given an impossible task of trying to foresee crises, he said.

“If you put the power into the hands of people, very smart people, but if you ask them to do more than is possible I think they will create problems for the system,” said Greenspan, who said in congressional testimony in October that “a flaw” in his free-market ideology contributed to the “once-in-a- century” credit crisis.

The former Fed chairman also reiterated his view that the central bank’s emergency lending should be done instead through the Treasury.

feelucky

631K new jobless claims, total benefit rolls 6.7M
New jobless claims drop to 631,000, while continuing claims rise to nearly 6.7 million

    * On Thursday May 21, 2009, 8:38 am EDT

    *
      Buzz up!
    * Print

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government says the number of newly-laid off workers requesting unemployment insurance dropped last week after spiking the previous week due to auto layoffs.

The Labor Department says initial claims for jobless benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 631,000, from a revised figure of 643,000 the prior week. That nearly matches analysts' expectations of 630,000.

Claims jumped two weeks ago as Chrysler LLC shut its factories after filing for bankruptcy protection April 30. Wall Street economists expect factory shutdowns by Chrysler and General Motors Corp. will inflate the initial claims numbers through June.

Continuing claims, rose to nearly 6.7 million, the highest total on records dating to 1967 and a 16th straight record.

palm

thanks fpr sharing.

jiaming12

看bloomberg 好像很多投资者对jobless claim这个数据都看得不是很重

feelucky

Chrysler Says Dealers Face Elimination if Sale Isn't Approved

A Chrysler LLC executive said Thursday if the company's sale of most of its operations to Fiat SpA isn't approved by bankruptcy court, all 3,181 of its remaining dealers will face elimination.

Chrysler has already notified 789 dealers that it plans to drop them from its retail network next month as part of its restructuring in bankruptcy court. Some of the dealers have been gearing up to challenge the move in court, although it's unclear how much chance of success they have.

Steven J. Landry, Chrysler's executive vice president for North American marketing said, "The auto industry cannot support the number of dealers in the marketplace." He noted that from 1990 to 2007, the industry sold about 16 million new vehicles annually, which compares with the nearly 10.5 million expected this year.

Mr. Landry said the company's dealers didn't make a profit last year, posting an average loss of $3,184.

As for concerns that numerous dealerships are going under as part of Chrysler's restructuring, Mr. Landry noted that 44% of 789 being shed sell vehicle from competing auto makers and 83% sell more used than new vehicles.

feelucky

Treasurys Rise as Unease Returns

NEW YORK -- Treasury prices rose Thursday as stocks slipped after Standard & Poor's lowered the credit rating outlook on the U.K. and ahead of the last Fed Treasury buying operation of the week.

The move though was tempered by supply concerns as investors girded themselves for the Treasurys announcement Thursday as to the amounts of two-, five-, and seven-year Treasury notes it will sell next week.

The 10-year note was up 12/32 at 99 23/32 to 3.16%. The 30-year was up 26/32 to 102 11/32 at 4.11%. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The five-year was up 5/32 at 99 12/32 to 2.01%, while the two-year was up 1/32 to 100 3/32 to 0.83%.

"We're still looking at the same tug of war between supply and the (Treasury buying) right now," said Rick Klingman, head of Treasurys trade at BNP Paribas.

The bond market has enjoyed a brief break from supply, with the last Treasury note auctions held in early May. Sales next week will kick off Tuesday.

In recent trade, the 10-year note was 12/32 higher to yield 3.16%. Bond prices move inversely to yields. The 30-year was up 26/32 to yield 4.11%, and the two-year Treasury was 1/32 higher to a 0.83% yield.

Thursday marks the last full trading day ahead of the Memorial Day holiday. Markets will close early Friday for the holiday and will be shuttered Monday.

Early Thursday, U.S. stock futures slipped after S&P, in a surprise move, lowered the U.K.'s outlook to negative from stable citing the possibility that government debt could equal the country's output. S&P affirmed the U.K.'s credit rating at AAA though.

For Treasurys, outlook downgrades have typically resulted in a flight to quality bid, with the bond market gaining as fears rise. In this case though, concerns about the U.K.'s debt trickled over to the U.S. "We don't exactly have the best fiscal picture either," Mr. Klingman said. "This raises some worries of, is this the same place we'll end up in."

Meantime Thursday, market participants are awaiting the Fed's last Treasury purchase operation of the week. The Fed Thursday will buy Treasurys maturing in four to seven years, those between Sept. 30, 2013 and Feb. 15, 2016. The Fed has bought Treasurys three times before in that part of the curve: $7.5 billion April 2, $7.3 billion April 14, and $7.0 billion April 27.

Analysts at Wrightson ICAP expect the Fed will buy about the same amount Thursday. The Fed has now bought a total of around $115 billion in Treasurys since March, a little more than a third of the total amount it's pledged to buy up to by September.

The latest Fed Treasury buying operation follows word Wednesday in the latest Fed meeting minutes that some Federal Open Market Committee members were mulling a possible expansion of the Fed's securities purchase programs. That gave Treasurys a boost Wednesday afternoon.

Early data Thursday showed the number of workers filing new jobless claims in the latest week fell by more than expected, 12,000 to 631,000 in the May 16 week versus economists expectations for a 7,000 drop.

feelucky

Geithner says must let market forces work

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Thursday said that a bailout for banks was steadying the financial system but care must be taken to ensure that normal market forces are allowed to operate.

"While TARP (the Troubled Asset Relief Program) is proving effective at improving the immediate stability of the financial system, the scope of the issues this administration and this department face ... include striking the delicate balance between intervention and allowing market participants latitude to operate," he said in prepared remarks for delivery to a U.S. House of Representatives appropriations subcommittee.

Geithner laid out a tough agenda for Treasury, including devising a new and more effective regulatory structure and deciding what form government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should assume in the future.

He said that, once economic recovery is under way, the government will have to move swiftly to ratchet down deficits that are swelling as the government pumps hundreds of billions of dollars of capital into banks.

"We must get our fiscal house in order or risk having government borrowing crowd out productive private investment," Geithner said.

feelucky

US swine flu deaths hit double-digits

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Swine flu forced Christina Huitron to make a choice no mother should ever have to make.

On Wednesday she told doctors to take her 21-year-old son off life support, making Marcos Sanchez the nation's 10th fatality associated with the newly discovered virus that continues to spread across the globe.

"I knew he was suffering," Christina Huitron told KSL-TV. "I don't know how he was feeling, but I just knew I had to do it because he was passing away slowly anyways, and I didn't want him to suffer anymore."

Sanchez checked into a suburban hospital Saturday, vomiting blood and burning with fever, Huitron told The Salt Lake Tribune. By Tuesday he was suffering from multiple organ failure.

Dr. David Sundwall, executive director of the Utah Department of Health, said Marcos, the state's first swine flu fatality, was overweight and had chronic medical conditions, including respiratory problems, that put him at risk.

"This is not a person who was overall genuinely healthy," Sundwall said.

Sanchez had not traveled recently. Dagmar Vitek, medical director for the Salt Lake Valley Health Department, said an investigation to determine how he contracted the virus was under way. Utah has 122 confirmed cases of the virus.

In neighboring Arizona, health officials said Wednesday a 13-year-old boy from Tucson also has died with swine flu. The teenager died Friday of complications from the flu. He had been hospitalized May 10.

Arizona Department of Health Services spokeswoman Patti Woodcock said an older sibling of the teen is hospitalized with the virus, while other family members have recovered.

Swine flu has sickened more than 11,000 people in 41 countries and killed 85, according to the World Health Organization, whose figures often trail those of individual countries. Mexico has reported 75 deaths, the U.S. 10, and one in both Canada and Costa Rica.

In New York City, officials, colleagues, friends and family gathered Wednesday at a funeral home to remember Mitchell Wiener, an 55-year-old assistant principal who died of swine flu Sunday.

"Whenever I needed help, I used to always go to him," student Jeffery Grey told reporters outside the funeral home. "I really don't know who to go to now when I need help."

Two more New York City public schools closed because of swine flu, bringing the number of city public and private schools shuttered within the last week to 23. One school closed Thursday across the Hudson River in Fort Lee, N.J., another closed in Reno, Nev., and four schools closed in Lodi, Wis., after students were sickened.

Judy Davis, a spokeswoman for the Washoe County District Health Department in Nevada, said state, county and school officials agreed that closing Mendive Middle School in Sparks was "best course of action" to prevent further spread of the flu after five students were sickened and one was hospitalized.

But experts said closing schools once students were already ill would do little to halt the virus' seemingly inexorable spread.

"As a disease containment measure, it is not likely to be effective," said Dr. Paul Biddinger, associate director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness at the Harvard School of Public Health.

feelucky

Philly Fed shows factory sector still struggling
Highest reading since September, but far from recovery

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business worsened for the eighth straight month in May for manufacturers in the Philadelphia region, but the decline was slower than at any time since September, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank reported Thursday.

The Philly Fed index rose to negative 22.6 from negative 24.4 in April, the highest since it broke up to positive 1.9 in September just before the global financial panic.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a bigger improvement in May, to about negative 15.

Any reading under zero indicates more companies say business is getting worse than say it's improving. The index has been below zero for 17 of the past 18 months.

"The survey does suggest that the rebound from the post-Lehman shock is not yet morphing into a sustained recovery story," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics.

With most of the components of the Philly Fed index in the negative 20s, the index shows many firms are still experiencing declining sales and production after months of recession. In May, about half the firms reported no change in business activity, while about a third said business got worse. The remaining sixth said business improved.

Other data from the Federal Reserve through April have reported the largest drop in industrial output of any recession since the end of World War II, with little hope for a near-term turnaround, given the woes in the auto industry and the recession raging in foreign economies.

The details of the May Philly Fed report were mixed.

The new orders index worsened to negative 25.9 from negative 24.3. The shipments index improved to negative 19 from negative 35.7. The inventory index improved to negative 28.6 from negative 40.2.

About 45% of the firms expect demand at their firm to increase in six months or more, compared with 17% that expect higher demand in three months or less.

feelucky

GM, UAW reach deal with U.S. gov't on restructuring

GM/UAW (UPDATE 3):UPDATE 3-GM, UAW reach deal with U.S. gov't on restructuring
pic

* GM, UAW reach agreement with U.S. Treasury

* Details being withheld, ratification votes scheduled
Article Controls

Emailemail

imageprint

imagereprint

imagenewsletter

imagecomments

imageshare

imagedel.icio.us

imageDigg It!

imageyahoo

imageFacebook

imagerss
Yahoo! Buzz

* GM shares rise 11 pct; bonds tick higher

(Recasts first sentence, adds background on GM bond exchange, details on final stage of talks; updates stock price, adds bond price)

By Kevin Krolicki and David Bailey

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp ( GM - news - people ) and the United Auto Workers cleared a key obstacle in GM's restructuring plan by agreeing to cut its labor costs and changing the terms of $20 billion in debt for retiree healthcare.

The UAW deal would give the embattled automaker a blueprint for concessions that could be carried into a bankruptcy filing expected at the end of this month, analysts said.

The tentative agreement, which was reached Thursday after a round of intensive talks involving representatives of the U.S. Treasury, will now go to a ratification vote by GM's roughly 54,000 UAW-represented U.S. factory workers.

View

谢谢

feelucky

China Grows More Picky About Debt

HONG KONG — Leaders in both Washington and Beijing have been fretting openly about the mutual dependence — some would say codependence — created by China’s vast holdings of United States bonds. But beyond the talk, the relationship is already changing with surprising speed.
Skip to next paragraph
Multimedia
China’s Changing RoleGraphic
China’s Changing Role

China is growing more picky about which American debt it is willing to finance, and is changing laws to make it easier for Chinese companies to invest abroad the billions of dollars they take in each year by exporting to America. For its part, the United States is becoming relatively less dependent on Chinese financing.

China has actually bought Treasury bonds at an accelerating pace over the last year — notwithstanding Chinese officials’ complaints about American profligacy. But the borrowing needs of the United States government have grown even faster. So China represents a rapidly shrinking share of overall purchases of Treasury securities. “China’s demand for Treasuries has increased over the past year, but it hasn’t increased at anything like the pace of the Treasury’s sale of new Treasury bonds,” said Brad W. Setser, a specialist in Chinese financial flows at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Americans and investors elsewhere are buying Treasuries instead. They are saving more and have been shifting out of other investments — including equities until the past two months — and into Treasuries.

China bought less than a sixth of the Treasuries issued in the 12 months through March. Less than two years ago, by contrast, Chinese purchases of Treasuries, which included purchases in the secondary market as well as newly issued securities, briefly exceeded the entire borrowing needs of the United States.

Financial statistics released by both countries in recent days show that China paradoxically stepped up its lending to the American government over the winter even as it virtually stopped putting fresh money into dollars.

This combination is possible because China has been exchanging one dollar-denominated asset for another — selling the debt of government-sponsored enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a hurry to buy Treasuries. While this has been clear for months, new data shows that China is also trading long-term Treasuries for short-term notes, highlighting Beijing’s concerns that inflation will erode the dollar’s value in the long run as America amasses record debt.

So China’s rising purchases of Treasuries do not represent the confident bet on America’s future that they might seem to be on the surface. For instance, China does not appear to be dumping euros or yen to buy Treasuries, economists said.

That said, recent Chinese and American data suggest that an astounding 82 percent of China’s $2 trillion in foreign reserves is in dollars, according to calculations by Standard Chartered.

The development has caught the attention of the leaders of both countries.

“The long-term deficit and debt that we have accumulated is unsustainable — we can’t keep on just borrowing from China,” President Obama said last Thursday.

Wen Jiabao, prime minister of China, also has expressed concern.

“We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried,” Mr. Wen said earlier this year.

China now earns more than $50 billion a year in interest from the United States, Mr. Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations calculated.

China’s leaders were able to buy more Treasuries in recent months without buying more dollars because they have abruptly turned their back on the market for securities issued by government-sponsored enterprises.

China was the world’s biggest buyer of these securities a year ago, splashing out more than $10 billion a month.

But in the 12 months through March, it actually had net sales of $7 billion, and ramped up purchases of Treasuries instead.

China has also changed which Treasuries it buys. It has done so in ways calculated to reduce its exposure to inflation or other problems in the United States. As recently as a year ago, China actively bought long-dated bonds, seeking the extra yield they could bring compared to Treasury securities with short maturities, of which China bought virtually none.

But in each month since November, China has been buying more Treasury bills, with a maturity of a year or less, than Treasuries with longer maturities. This gives China the option of cashing out its positions in a hurry, by not rolling over its investments into new Treasury bills as they come due should inflation in the United States start rising and make Treasury securities less attractive.

The big question now for policy makers and economists alike lies in whether the Chinese government’s purchases of American securities will rise or fall in the coming months.

Two big forces are at work — but they are pushing Chinese investments in opposite directions and might cancel each other out.

The first big shift is that Chinese foreign exchange reserves might start growing again, after shrinking early this year.

A senior Chinese economic policy maker, Xu Lin, expressed concern here on Monday that the reserves might grow faster if speculators started pushing more foreign exchange into China in the months ahead.

China is strongly opposed to any significant appreciation or depreciation of its currency, Mr. Xu said at a press conference. But if international investors conclude that the Chinese economy has stabilized ahead of economies elsewhere, they may start pumping more money into the Chinese economy, he said.

feelucky

To keep its currency at the same level, the Chinese government buys foreign currency flowing into the country in excess of China’s needs. If overseas demand for Chinese exports recovers, then China’s trade surplus could start widening again as well. This would also tend to fatten Chinese reserves.
Skip to next paragraph
Multimedia
China’s Changing RoleGraphic
China’s Changing Role

But the countervailing trend is that the Chinese government is trying to foster channels for foreign currency to be pumped out of the country without the involvement of the central bank. The government has been buying a wider range of assets and encouraging the private sector to invest more money overseas.

“That’s part of a strategic move by the authorities to diversify,” said Wensheng Peng, the head of China research at Barclays Capital. “The reserves growth should accelerate because of inflows, but it will not be as large as what we observed in 2007 and the first half of 2008.”

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which is part of the central bank, issued draft regulations on Monday that would make it considerably easier for private companies to raise dollars in China to spend on overseas investments — a step that would lessen the need for the Chinese government to buy up those dollars.

This spring China has also been stepping up its purchases of commodities, which are usually bought in dollars. Iron ore has been piling up on Chinese docks, government stockpiles of crude oil and grain are being expanded and stockpiles are being started for products like gasoline, diesel and sugar.

After six years of silence, China unexpectedly disclosed last month that it had been gradually buying gold from domestic producers. The country’s reserves had climbed from 600 tons in 2003 to 1,054 tons, worth $31.8 billion at prices late Wednesday.

The disclosure, which produced a frisson of excitement in gold markets, may have been aimed at reassuring a domestic audience that the Chinese government was not putting all the nation’s savings into American dollars. But the actual investment was tiny compared with China’s foreign exchange reserves — and showed that China was accumulating gold at a much slower rate than foreign currency.

A person in periodic contact with China’s central bank, who insisted on anonymity to preserve his access, said that a Chinese central banker complained to him last year that “we have so much money and there’s so little gold, we can’t buy much without driving up the price.”

feelucky

21号S&P4小时图两种假设

时间:2009-05-21 13:00:45 | 作者:Winson | 来源:The News Angle

在S&P图面上，基本依照我们在18号的估计，出现了下跌。
当下，我们觉得有两种主要的潜在走势（当然，其他的走法并非不存在）。我们认为893.25和874是趋势确认的两个主要价格点。
如果价格跌破874水平，那么接下来股市应该倾向看空。而如果893.25区域出现大的反弹，则市场倾向继续看涨。
排除这两种技术图面上的看点，我们认为，市场在874-893.5之间维持几天盘整也是可能的。

建议：离场等待。

feelucky

欧元兑美元走势分析

时间:2009-05-21 13:08:00 | 作者:MoIFX | 来源:MoIFX

欧元兑美元仍维持在小幅区间内整固。技术图表显示此对货币超买及上行动力衰竭，下方关键支撑是1.3740水平，如果破了，则此对货币将展开更大幅度的修正行情；若站上1.3850水平，则其看涨趋势将重启。跌破1.3740水平，将考验下一支持位1.3710和1.3670区域，而突破今日高点，将挑战下一阻力1.3880和1.3920。

feelucky

美联储4月份FOMC会议纪要

时间:2009-05-21 22:35:00 | 作者:曹解 | 来源:The News Angle

美联储(简称Fed) 4月份会议纪要显示，部分Fed官员对提高抵押贷款担保证券及国债购买规模持开放态度。

Fed之前承诺收购1.75万亿美元抵押贷款担保证券及国债。

与此同时，较之三个月之前的预期，Fed官员们目前预计经济衰退程度会更深，并预计未来2年经济复苏步伐会更加缓慢，因为就业市场仍面临压力。

20日公布的4月28日至29日的公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要显示，部分成员指出，在适当时可能有必要进一步扩大债券购买总规模，以促进经济更快复苏。

Fed在4月28日至29日会议上将联邦基金目标利率维持在接近零的区间内，符合普遍预期。

Fed官员在三周前发布的货币政策声明中称，联邦基金目标利率将在更长的时间内维持在极低的水平，暗示Fed到2010年为止或将维持利率不变。

声明还称，自3月份的会议以来，经济前景已有适度改善，这引发有关经济衰退已接近尾声的预期。但是自4月底以来，经济数据喜忧参半，疲弱的支出和就业数据抵消了消费和商业调查中显示的企稳迹象。

4月份的会议纪要显示，自从3月份FOMC会议召开以来，数据显示实体经济的萎缩势头已开始放缓，因金融市场状况有所改善，而住房和商业信心也出现回升。

Fed经济学家上调了对09年下半年和2010年的国内生产总值(GDP)预期。会议纪要显示，实际GDP预计将在09年下半年小幅增长，并在2010年继续温和增长。

不过，会议纪要中的季度经济预期则显示出09年年初以来经济前景已变得更加黯淡。Fed官员预计，09年的GDP将下降1.3%-2%，而1月份时预计为仅下降0.5%-1.3%。

Fed官员预计2010年GDP仅增长2%-3%，低于1月份时的预期。Fed官员还下调了2011年GDP增幅预期，不过仍普遍认为2011年GDP增幅将稳定在3.5%-4.8%之间。

Fed官员还预计，失业率将在2009年底升至9.2%-9.6%之间，大大高于1月份时的预期。一位官员预计，失业率将在09年达到10%。预计失业率将在2010年维持在9%上方。

Fed还称，通货膨胀应该会维持在“低位”，不过，很多官员认为通货紧缩风险已经下降。

会议纪要还显示，FOMC讨论了在潜在的资产购买方式问题上与市场的沟通策略，以及在何种情况下应该改变上述购买方式。

会议纪要称，所有委员均认为应该在货币政策声明中指出，FOMC将根据经济前景及金融市场状况的发展来评估资产购买计划的时间和总规模。

官员们还暗示，虽然Fed对提高透明度持开放态度，但不太可能会透露采用Fed借贷工具的银行名称。

Fed称，披露向Fed借款银行的名称很可能会令银行放弃使用Fed的流动性和信贷工具

feelucky

Standard Bank金属市场评论

时间:2009-05-21 23:46:00 | 作者:Standard Bank | 来源:Standard Bank

基本金属市场普遍遭到较强的抛售压力，以铜为首，LME盘初跌破4500美元。市场研究机构Markit Economics21日发布的数据显示，欧元区5月经济收缩进一步缓和，因制造业和服务业活动下降出现缓和。欧元区5月综合采购经理人指数由4月的 41.1增至8个月来高点43.9，市场预期中值为42。指数值高于50.0表明部门扩张，而指数值低于50.0表明部门收缩。其中制造业采购经理人指数由36.8增至40.5，预期中值为38.3；服务业采购经理人指数由43.8增至44.7，预期中值为44.5。

美国费城联邦储备银行周四公布的数据显示,美国大西洋沿岸中部地区5月制造业活动指数连续第八个月萎缩,报负22.6,预估为负18,4月为负24.4.该指数为负数,即显示制造业萎缩.美国股市周四全线遭遇抛售而收低,股市低迷也拖累了商品，只有黄金保持平稳。在亚洲和欧洲，主要经济指数下跌，基本金属面临巨大压力。

铝库存增加34950吨,总存量4176625吨。石油价格走低，股市走软均打压金属价格，LEM铝跌破1485美元。

铜库存减少5,400吨,总存量336,075吨。三个月期铜MCU3收报每吨4,469/4,470美元,周三收报4,640美元,今日盘中触及 4,425美元的低点. 国际铜业研究小组（ICSG）在最新的月度报告中指出，2月全球精炼铜产量为292.7万吨，而消费量从去年同期的297.1万吨降至284.1万吨。 ICSG指出，今年2月份全球铜市供应过剩86000吨，去年同期则为短缺61000吨。ICSG在报告中指出，今年前两个月，全球铜使用量较去年同期减少4.4%或130000吨，尽管中国显性使用量增长33%，但不及其他三大地区分别高达25%、44%和25%的需求削减幅度。ICSG最后指出，除中国以外，全球铜消费量减少18%。

锌受到铜的影响，跌破1500美元，尽管锌库存下降300吨,总存量318,050吨。镍库存增加30吨,总存量109,704吨，镍持稳在12300美元。不过，这两种金属可能会受到铜和铝的影响。

feelucky

美国或遭债信评级被下调威胁

时间:2009-05-22 01:08:00 | 作者:Dailyfx | 来源:Dailyfx

由于美国预算赤字过高，市场开始担忧美国可能将遭遇债信评级下调威胁。在昨日标准普尔将英国评级展望由稳定下调至负面后，市场已经如风声鹤唳。加之美国上周初请失业金人数录得63.1万，高于预期的62.5万。4月领先指标月率和费城联储制造业也指数也均低于预期，道指日内低开，并最终收跌1.54%。美元全盘被抛，美元指数跌至4个月新低80.10.面对可能遭受的债信评级被下调的威胁，美国财长盖纳表示，奥巴马政府将减少财政预算赤字，将致力于将预算赤字占GDP的比例自今年的12.9%降至低于或等于3%。恐慌情绪可能将延续至今日亚市。

美国时段重要数据和事件：加拿大经济俱乐部举办题为“当前经济危机兑养老金市场的冲击 ”的讨论。美国4月领先指标乐律0.1%、5月费城联储制造业指数-22.6.

亚市重要数据和事件： 日央行公布利率决议。日本3月经济领先指标修正值、同步指标修正值。

欧元

欧元/美元纽约开盘于1.3760，之后受美国上周初请失业金人数高于预期打压，道指低开，也打压汇价跌至1.3729低点，该位的官方买盘支持汇价反弹至4个月高点1.3928.尾盘进入盘整。日土看涨，小时图均线看涨，但超买，倾向逢低买入。

日元

美元/日元纽约开盘于94.99附近，升至95.00后，受股市下跌和标普下调兑英国经济展望的打压，跌至日内新低93.98.尾盘在94.00-50区域窄幅震荡。日图看跌，小时图趋势指标也看跌，倾向逢高抛售。

英镑

英镑/美元开盘受美国疲软数据打压跌至１1.5628后，受到强劲买盘支持反弹至6个月新高1.5891.尾盘进入盘整。超买日图仍看涨，小时图均线也看涨，倾向于逢低买入。

瑞士法郎

美元全盘被抛，打压美元、瑞郎跌至４个月新低1.0951，尾盘道指进入盘整，汇价也围绕1.0951低点进入盘整。日图和小时图指标均看跌，倾向逢高抛售。

澳元

澳元/美元纽约开盘于0.7701附近。受美国疲软的就业数据打压，道指低开，汇价跌至0.7669，之后受到日内低点0.7670上方买盘支持强劲反弹至0.7804.日图看涨，小时图均线看涨，倾向逢低买入。

feelucky

5月22号日本央行维持利率0.1%不变

时间:2009-05-22 05:36:00 | 作者:The News Angle | 来源:The News Angle

日本央行（Bank of Japan）今日决定维持基准利率于0.1%不变，并近3年来首度调高经济评估，因迹象显示最坏情况可能已过。

央行理事会一致通过维持基准利率不变。央行还决定接受外币计价国债做为担保品，以让银行能更容易取得资金。日本央行自06年7月以来首次上调对经济的评估，意味央行可能不愿扩大买进国债和公司债的金额。

日本央行称，经济恶化但出口和产出趋缓，一改过去几个月秉持的经济快速恶化的观点。

日本央行还预计经济将在09财年底开始恢复增长。对于通胀，日本央行认为，通胀率的降幅有可能会超出此前的预期，这暗示日本央行并不急于改变当前的宽松货币政策。同时，日本央行还承诺将全力确保物价稳定，并支持经济复苏。

日本央行指出，金融市场的压力近期有所缓解，央行将研究接受外币债券作为担保品，美国、德国、法国、英国的主权债券都可作为担保品。

日本财长与谢野馨表示，第1季的GDP报告意味最坏情况可能已过，但还是得努力让经济恢复向上。
日本目前还面临多项困境。一是H1N1新流感，一是日圆兑美元5月来已升值4.7%，22日达到9周高点，因财长表示政府不考虑干预汇市。