Value Investing

jamesmith

rightonmoney 发表于 2012-10-3 11:45 AM
Thank you so much for your time and the answer.

A more recent example is JPM.
With market price when they report the situation, lost is 2 billion. But in reality, when JPM tries to get out of the trade, there will not be any counter parties at market price.
There are estimates that when executed to get out of the trade, real lost might go up to 7 billion. When one's too big and everyone else know which side you are on spells trouble...
That said...I still think JPM is a good company.

aimei

cool
:)

水明善

jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-3 12:55 PM
I looked at CHRW a bit more :)
it's business model is quite interesting. From my understanding,  ...

Thank you for your sharing! Maybe this is exactly why Buffet does not like heavy PPE.

jamesmith

水明善 发表于 2012-10-12 08:04 PM
Thank you for your sharing! Maybe this is exactly why Buffet does not like heavy PPE.

picked up anything good during the recent drop?  :)

水明善

no pick-up. how about you?

jamesmith

水明善 发表于 2012-10-16 10:18 AM
no pick-up. how about you?

I got some Apple :)
Apple will be announcing ipad mini on October 23rd.

My post about Apple here: http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 3&fromuid=11178

jamesmith

Let's put arbitrage example into action :)
I am looking for arbitrage opportunity in Aone and bought some at $0.0600

From June 29, 2012 Earnings Report, It got Net Tangible Assets $97,384,000. It has 170,600,000 shares outstanding. That gives us $0.57 per share.
Of course, we don't know how much worse things got from June 29th to now.
Looking at March 30, 2012 report, Net Tangible Assets is at $176,932,000, that is a $79,548,000 drop in Net Tangible Assets. If we assume the same amount of drop from June 29 to now, we will have $17,836,000 Net Tangible Assets left. That will give us $0.104549 per share, 74.24% upside. This is a dangerous bet though, because my investment might be completely gone.

jamesmith

Aone has been up to $0.1 pre market this morning, because there are several companies that express interest to bid for its asset (especially WanXiang from China). With Bankruptcy protection, it should be able to sell its assets in a timely manner and try to get as much value out of it as possible.
However, this is no guarantee on how much investor will receive, and this price appreciation is partly driven by speculation.
This will be a long process when deadline to submit application to appear on auction is November. The liquidation will probably take months to complete. So it is completely fine to take partial profit if anyone did look at my previous post and followed.
Logan & Company, Inc is the bankruptcy admin on this  case, any new documents related to the case will show up on here: http://www.loganandco.com/Client ... mp;DebtorTabID=3534
A123 Company is required to give update monthly.

jamesmith

水明善 发表于 2012-10-16 10:18 AM
no pick-up. how about you?

I am happy to see the recent drop of technology stocks. Some of them start to look very attractive.

Intel caught my eye yesterday.
Everyone thinks that PC is dead, and recent news confirmed it with weaker than expected demand for Personal Computers due and Tablet/Smart phone sales depress Intel's business for now.


After looking at INTC's historical earnings and ability to profit. I am hoping and praying negative sentiment sent it to even lower prices.


With current prices, INTC is paying above 4% dividend (almost 40% payout ratio). 21% profit margin for this year and earning yield of 10.97% for past twelve months. This is very attractive. I believe PC industry will not die and I might start a position in INTC in near future...

水明善

jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-16 01:23 PM
I got some Apple :)
Apple will be announcing ipad mini on October 23rd.

Thank you for your sharing.

Just share some of my thinking:

As to INTC, someone in Buffet's team did buy it, and sold it within few months. From financial perspective, this company is a very good target for value investment. However, if you looked at the financial picture of Blackberry early last year, the scenario would be wonderful too. I mean there is certain kind of risk which can't be covered by financial analysis.  In the mobile world, Intel lags behind... I am not a tech guy, can't judge what may have real negative impact on INTC. Have you made comparative study among GOOG, MSFT and INTL? In fact, AMZN is a very tricky stock for me now, it seems a leader in cloud computing while its retail is a solid cash cow, it even does banking business to make loans for small business owners!

I found another interesting stock called DEO. My logic is a little crazy, I am trying to find some stocks which will NOT be negatively influenced too much by the risk of the second economic depression if there is. In fact, if you read ER reports, one obvious character is revenue is behind estimate, but EPS is fine. We all know there are more space for bottom line than for top line from accounting rule perspective, so the chance of 2nd depression is more realistic for me now.

Both PM and DEO will be less influenced by the worsen economic situation. Today, both PM and DEO are more independent from the impact of the whole.

It is still not the time to buy in dip, I am afraid, or small buying only.

jamesmith

水明善 发表于 2012-10-19 11:42 AM
Thank you for your sharing.

Just share some of my thinking:

I try to learn from Buffett so I am aware as well.
Berkshire's position of Intel:
started a position of 9,333,000 shares at Q3, 2011
Added 23.17%  or  2,162,000 shares at Q4, 2011
Reduced 32.62%  or  3,750,000 shares at Q1, 2012
Sold out all of remaining 7,745,000 shares at Q2, 2012

A very clever trade, they sold all of Intel shares at relatively high spot, sometimes Buffett does short term trades like this.

That said, Intel is very different from RIMM. Intel's biggest business is making CPU, Mac and PC both uses Intel's CPU, and there's really no one that can take their position in near future. However you are right about Intel's weakness in mobile, they try to address that by making low power chips for tablets and cell phones, not much success yet. But Intel's 2 year chip shrink cycle is still holding up, with 22nm chips out this year and next year, they have the technology lead in chip design (they spend 8 Billion on R & D last year to gain an edge. ) Also Intel has a strong balance sheet that's not causing them any worries. Even with mobile getting more and more popular, I don't think PC will die out at the speed the market thinks it will.
I am assuming a very low growth to no growth scenario. With 4.23% dividend (today's price is $21.26), and pretty consistent share buyback, Intel is looking very attractive to me.
I usually try to have 10 to 20 positions for diversification...of course INTC won't double in a short time like a small cap stock, but it has consistent profitability and good dividend. Let's see where it is in 1 to 3 years.

By the way, I like the market's scary panic feeling today
I hope it drives price lower before I buy.

For comparing  MSFT and GOOG, I did a quick look...
MSFT has 6.51% earning yield for last twelve months, profit margin is 23% for 2011, dividend is 3.21%
GOOG has 4.75%  earning yield for last twelve months, profit margin is 26% for 2011, dividend is 0%, but it is growing much faster compared to INTC and MSFT.
I will take a look at DEO and look at MSFT, GOOG more this weekend :)

水明善

jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-19 02:12 PM
I try to learn from Buffett so I am aware as well.
Berkshire's position of Intel:
started a pos ...

If AAPL and GOOG are stable, it will be the chance to buy dip. Now I have no idea about how the falling will slow down. From volume perspective, timing is not there.
INTC is a good choice, considering about its status in its industry.
You have 10-20 stocks? That's a lot.

heheboy

it seems aapl and goog have huge volume on down day....very bad sign

jamesmith

I bought INTC at $21.5 and added AAPL at $620

jamesmith

An interesting story from a famous market technician.

The Fable of the Fishing Boat

Then there was the time in 1978 when the bear market was taking its toll on Putnams holdings. Walt (The technical analyst of the firm) just couldn't make the portfolio managers understand that bear markets trump even the best fundamentals.

So he circulated the following memorandum to Putnams investment department, which he considers the best thing he ever wrote:

Once upon a time, there was a big fishing boat in the North Atlantic. One day the crew members noticed that the barometer had fallen sharply, but since it was a warm, sunny and peaceful day, they decided to pay it no attention and went on with their fishing.

The next day dawned stormy and the barometer had fallen further, so the crew decided to have a meeting and discuss what to do.

I think we should keep in mind that we are fishermen, said the first to speak. Our job is to catch as many fish as we can; that is what everyone on shore expects of us. Let us concentrate on this and leave the worrying about storms to the weathermen.

Not only that, said the next, but I understand that the weathermen are ALL predicting a storm. Using contrary opinion, we should expect a sunny day and, therefore, should not worry about the weather.

Yes, said a third crew member. And keep in mind that since this storm got so bad so quickly, it is likely to expand itself soon. It has already become overblown.

The crew thus decided to continue with their business as usual.

The next morning saw frightful wind and rain following steadily deteriorating conditions all the previous day. The barometer continued to fall. The crew held another meeting.

Things are about as bad as they can get, said one. The only time they were worse was in 1974, and we all know that was due to the unusual pressure systems that were centered over the Middle East that wont be repeated. We should, therefore, expect things to get better.

So the crew continued to cast their nets as usual. But a strange thing happened: the storm was carrying unusually large and fine fish into their nets, yet at the same time the violence was ripping the nets loose and washing them away. And the barometer continued to fall.

The crew gathered together once more.

This storm is distracting us way too much from our regular tasks, complained one person, struggling to keep his feet. We are letting too many fish get away.

Yes, agreed another as everything slid off the table. And furthermore, we are wasting entirely too much time in meetings lately. We are missing too much valuable fishing time.

Theres only one thing to do, said a crew member. Thats right!

Aye! they all shouted.

So they threw the barometer overboard.

(Editors Note: The above manuscript, now preserved in a museum, was originally discovered washed up on a desolate island above the north coast of Norway, about halfway to Spitsbergen. That island is called Bear Island and is located on the huge black and white world map on the wall in Putnams Trustees Room where weekly investment division meetings took place.)

jamesmith

heheboy 发表于 2012-10-19 03:23 PM
it seems aapl and goog have huge volume on down day....very bad sign

I believe AAPL will have record breaking sales figure in this holidays season and I am buying the dip a little at a time.

jamesmith

水明善 发表于 2012-10-19 11:42 AM
Thank you for your sharing.

Just share some of my thinking:

I got access to ValueLine, here's the cheat sheet for DEO.

By the way, if anyone wants to look at the cheat sheet for some company, just post the symbol here.

DEO.pdf (34.17 KB, 下载次数: 23)

2012-10-22 04:28 PM 上传

点击文件名下载附件

水明善

jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-22 10:06 AM
I bought INTC at $21.5 and added AAPL at $620

You are very decisive.

水明善

jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-22 11:00 AM
An interesting story from a famous market technician.

The Fable of the Fishing Boat

very good story

水明善

jamesmith 发表于 2012-10-22 05:29 PM
I got access to ValueLine, here's the cheat sheet for DEO.

By the way, if anyone wants to lo ...

Thank you very much for your sharing. AAPL will release ER soon, good luck!