也谈个股----老蛇，我再挺你一把，不过

wyjhyd

creeker

挺一下冷春大哥，牛人一个。

biotech的风险极高，能一路从preclinical，clinical到FDA approval药太少了。高风险，对其中一些FA好的，绝对是高回报。DNDN做的非常成功，抓住这么一个机会，一辈子都值得骄傲。多谢分享你的宝贵经验。

冷春biotech的FA做的不错，金融方面也是大牛。同时具备了这两种能力，做生物医药股就无敌了。

请问大哥以后回国是做投资，还是做药物研发方面的工作？

Read0nly

很佩服CD老大这种有技术专业背景的投资人士，尤其是能同所投资的公司管理层有直接接触，减少投资的盲目性。但俺想提醒各位散户，没有这种先决条件，你买的biotech股票是投机不是投资。Biotech公司炒作最多的就是FDA核准的新药上市，真能上市能大捞一把，可一个官司又有可能让你损失惨重。这种公司最适合华尔街MM的pump-dump操作，没有把握的话最好还是远离，至少别赌的太大。

colderdown

回复 creeker 的帖子

A little bit both? Well the key is the money is in China now, no matter you are bull or bear. However, to understand China, even for me who are a Chinese, I have to go back and live there for a while.

creeker

刚才又仔细看了看大哥前面的帖子，发现你有两个化合物已经上临床了，佩服！能方便透露一下情况吗？什么阶段了？是小分子药物吗？感觉小分子药物在cancer方面的成功率高很多。

好像最近几年FDA approval的药里面，生物大分子方面的药越来越多。

多谢和你的交流。

jcw

quickcow

Thank you for sharing...

chinapg

colderdown 发表于 2011-6-10 11:46
回复 sandera 的帖子

非常对！我当初也是让08年整惨了，要不是因为对地产的看法还准，早关门了。所以那时候 ...

高深, 敬仰你的人品.  

colderdown

回复 creeker 的帖子

They both are small molecules, oncology and inflammation indications, one in PhaseIII, one in Phase II.

creeker

Phase II success rates : cancer (20%)

Phase III, success rates: 50%

离FDA approval很近了，祝大哥成功!

是什么信号通路的inhibitor？

colderdown

回复 cdmawcl 的帖子

Well, in my impression, that is just so so ture.

cdmawcl

回复 colderdown 的帖子

我要讲的是如果你要死磕一个股，第一，最好是你本行业的， 这样你和那些造势的MM们在information unbalance上不会输太多；第二，尽量利用一切手段，了解公司的管理层，起码把他们的简历看看吧；第三，随时把握公司大方向的进展和变化；至于看账本什么的，那是必要的功课。U buy it, you own it。把它当作自己的企业去看待。

completely agree with first 2 points, but the 3rd one, for small (or not yet a star player) company, how can you be sure their book is really rosey?

colderdown

回复 creeker 的帖子

I don't think I am as optimistic as you do. It's team work and it will be damn lucky to be a part of team who can make a real drug. I cross my fingers. Both of them are kinases inhibitors, one of them have some gene toxicity. Well, I once said :"I can make an inhibitor, but only luck can make a drug".

creeker

很多biotech都是因为有catalyst才涨的，如果不打算长期holding的话，看看小biotechnology公司的目前有多少cash/equivalent就行了吧,在catalyst之前，只要不发行新股就行了吧。

colderdown

回复 cdmawcl 的帖子

That's why it is very important to know those managment level people. However, that may still not enough, then the rest is based on your experience and some common sense. This in fact remind me a story for an American bear trader, he did not beleive a Chinese company's book and then he went to China to dig deeper, he found a big hole on its balance book. One trade he made more than $1M. Well, let's say if you have doubt, then stay away (or cut loss) because of murphy's law.

cdmawcl

回复 colderdown 的帖子

hehe.. I appreciate your attitude. It's good to be an expert in one area, it's better to be an expert across domains, but i think it's vital to have an open mind.

Xing is good and very knowledgable, but i think it's not a good thing to be stubborn on market. I do not believe any human being can always beat market. Do your study, make your decision, but do not fall in love of your decision if market constantly shows you might be "wrong".

I like YPM and I can tell he has strong ego too, but he is flexible and not stick with emotion. Personally speaking, this is a more convincing way to better survive in stock market.

Cobra has been great to creat Hutong and it's lucky to attract bunch of good guys with selfishless sharing. Thx all of you!

creeker

上面的phaseII， Phase III的成功率，是多年数据统计的结果。从preclinicla到 approval 只有万分之一的成功率。你们的药物已经分别到phaseII， Phase III了，看起来前景很不错。oncology 药物的safety的要求相对较低。FDA的门槛容易过些。

大多数生物医学研究，离临床应用太远了。很多人当初选择生物医学专业的原因，就是想做点能治疗疾病，对人类健康有用的东西。很羡慕你，你的biotech方面工作也很有成就感。当然你投资方面也很成功。

colderdown

回复 cdmawcl 的帖子

Indeed. I think Xing used copper as leading indicator for this bull run. But I can't beleive he overlooked that copper also led this down turn too. For me, I never believed this QE2 BS, so I did not make much money from this 300 points bull run. Even I go long, I just couldn't bet big. But I know it will be hard to change my style since I am a FA guy as core. It's faith.

freedom

thanks for sharing!

zmkh

仰慕，这才叫做投资。
顺便问一下SIGA有前途吗？当年6块买过一点点，赚了1块就跑了，没几个月就翻番。