灌水贴

jsl

BSO 一下， 上周末就（让别人）杀入A股，没等2800+，赚翻了。

看客都下班了，有空，那我就再说一段

话说我得了这“彩武宝表”，便日夜习练，可修到第二重之后，觉得无法再更进一步。百思不得其解。一日又见张会计，便问起来。张会计尴尬的说道：“有愧与先祖，彩武宝表我不曾练过，但听我祖母曾提到过要修行大金刚经才行。”恰逢右舍的博大妈经常拜佛求经，便登门造访。博大妈笑容可掬的迎我进屋，高兴的告诉我，她上个月刚刚从风得寺讨得一本大金刚经，答应借我一看。时间不多，我挑灯夜战。虽说这大金刚经讲的是 前市之因，后市之原，世市轮回，诸般佛法，对内功修为却有极大帮助。不久我便打通一经一脉。

jsl

Came back from grocery shopping, notice some more pressure on food inflation, maybe the rice panic overseas triggered some food price escalations here.

 

According to the history, an engineered recession had proven to be one way to control run-away inflation. Do we want that? Now financials worked half-way through the crisis if we trust what they say. Given their record, that is a hard thing to do. But without better alternatives, we can only hope that they are at least more watchful about their mouths. As the risk of economic collapsing reduced, the rate hikes will soon be an option on Fed’s table. Will that be a solution? It is maybe still too early to ask this question, since we don’t even know where we are right now.

 

To put my imagination forward, I think the Fed already has a discussion. It is probably more like a debate on the topic of whether it is important to tame the inflation or give some time to the early recovery. Then the case studies of the great depression and the great stagflation become the focus.

 

There is one thing I have noticed about the criticisms on the Fed, people love Fed taking tough stance on inflation, whereas when the Fed wanted to save the economy through stimulus policy, they will shout at “the unwanted intervention”, and argue that economy should work through its own way out. Hmm..??

jsl

Brainteaser的傻帮要旨，我给修改了一下，好记，希望不要见怪 。他原来的帖子莫名其妙的不见了。

 

一根阳棒后 防跌不做短
未破阻力线 起伏看不见.
神仙没几个 傻福在人间
有心人共勉 胡同齐庆欢.

jsl

黑虎掏心，见机事行

波浪有用，宫图更灵

金刚坐镇，宝表先行

跟贴不够，灌水不停

jsl

 

回想当年，窦唯王菲

几只曲，几首歌，

却看不透，悲欢离合

人生如戏，不由你我

 

 

曾经不顾，年少轻狂，

争功名， 贪享乐，

世事沧桑，忽觉蹉跎

荣辱输赢，成败如何

大泡泡

这贴好像不能顶， 顶多了你不灌了， 我们就没得看了。

jsl

亏时苦，涨时快，殊不知缘由所在

看浪起，观潮落，恰好似胸中澎湃

事有因，物有源，平常心可辨黑白

远为主，近为辅，方可利长短之材

 

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=11264&extra=page%3D1

jsl

memo:

Should we use TA on VIX as if it is a stock index?

Should we be afraid of a single head&shoulder?

What need to be cautious about for a breakout?

 

put a link here for the stray post.

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=11287&extra=page%3D1

jsl

可爱的小yager 转贴过一篇文章

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=10906&highlight=vix

 

Should we use TA on VIX as if it is a stock index?

 

I keep this question in mind, since many people here tend to hammer on this nail-like thing.

 

Volatility trades started to gain some ground about 3 or more years ago. I have no data to support that. Most of the strategies trade volatility through individual stock options and index options at some hedge funds (homework: how would you trade and hedge?). Just because of self-fulfilling effect, I do believe there are some merits talking about support line, though not quite a whole lot. BTW, I beileve that anything that are intentionally traded will show some kind of patterns. However, we all know that VIX is naturally range bound, so a trend line doesn’t make much sense except for short term. In other words, VIX has its unwritten upper limit. Volatility clusters and we should treat it as a cluster of pulses. This makes it very different from stock indices (how do you model this). In addition to measure panic level, I would also like to think it as a measure for uncertainties. People panic due to lack of information.The fundament of VIX is information level, clarity of the market. Very often uncertainties are considered risk and that contributes to its negative correlation with the stock market.

 

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-29 00:45 编辑 ]

jsl

my intuition is that the market will go up after FOMC.

I never trust, never go against my own intuition

 

14:12

now the market starts geting nervous, and seemingly share some of my intuition also. wait and see

 

14:17

sounds like a positive statement from FED, let's see

 

14:34

major moves will appear near the end of the day

 

14:44

the move is likely to be on the positive side

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-30 14:44 编辑 ]

jsl

wrong on the last thought. I overestimated the bearish sentiment before FOMC.

 

What did I see from the reaction to Fed.

 

1. Pre announcement short run was due to nervous bears that short before the event.

2. speculators did see the Fed statement as a positive for the market, they reacted right after

3. stock holders couldn't see any reason to hold longer.

 

So the FOMC was gone without any surprise and an upside risk went away, market retreat confirmed that the market internal indeed has a negative bias.

jsl

I was expecting a sharp rise yesterday which didn't happen. I took the reaction of yesterday as an exhibition of ‘worry’. Today, the market was climbing a wall of worry, maybe not quite in the same sense of the traditional definition. We do have the worry that the market has bounced quite a lot since the low; we do have the worry that the economic has shown no sign of recovery, but we did get a temporary relief with the oil drop and it seems that the economy has been hanging on there, whether you trust the government data or not.

 

So what might have really happened yesterday and today? First of all, the Fed did the best and said the appropriate words, which is more like nothing, the market didn’t shoot up. People treated that as a sign of low upside risk and decreased their net long position and possibly into net short just as many among us did. They did that by selling the winners of the past. Today, many also realized that, for a short term, the downside risk also dropped. As the market climbing up, they started to cover the shorts that made money for them. During this process some were squeezed, some were convinced.

 

I will characterize today as ‘junk’ rally. Many of the names that were cut in half or dropped a third made a strong run for the reasons I mentioned above. Junk rally can lead a true rally and can also mark a climax run during bear markets. Anyway, this rally could go on for a few more days. This is not important, what after is!

 

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-5-2 00:50 编辑 ]

jsl

曾经参与AAPL的讨论

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=10825&highlight=

就在这里检讨一下

Brainteaser's chart was something like this

This is quite reasonable on a 3year span on linear scale. However, I thought that this is too bullish under with the weak consumer sentiment. Also the recent low has a longer consolidation period and not quite comparable to the 2006 low which was a downward spike. So given the overall market, I thought there would be a channel switch like this

In other words, I took the major trend line as the lower side of the channel.

 

From TA point of view, AAPL delivered inline earnings, though I personally doubt its futures earnings growth, at least a short term risk was gone. AAPL is mainly traded on growth expectation, with PEG 1.5 which is not cheap, but not expensive either if it can really maintain 23% growth for a coulple more years. The negative sentiment on apple has grown quite fast as the stock bounce back too quickly. A favorable overall market can easily trigger a "short" squeeze. (I treat underweight as short as well)

jsl

Just to speak out my mind.

 

Obviously, the market is on an interesting point where, on one hand, things don't look encouraging and on the other selling from here is not quite convincing either. If you didn't look at the charts, just look at the different opinions here.

 

Fundamentally, nothing has changed much other than deterioration has slowed down and much of it has been priced in through the recent rally. The weak consumer spending has not been fully reflected in the earnings. The growth of the economy and earnings will be low if not to contract, so don't expect any mulitple expansion. Topy Commodities and bottomed-out dollar give people some hope on inflation pressure reduction and some purchasing power recovery. the Fed's aggressive move started to take some effect and let people to reconsider the length of this recession.

 

I still remain bearish with light weight long. If there is truely another leg down, I am willing to treat that as the last one in a couple of years.

 

From TA and psychology point of view

the green parallelogram indicates a continuation of upside after a short pull back.

the dark green horizontal lines define short term risk. I feel that the lower level should be lower, but I am too lazy to redraw it.

The blue trendline is/will be still be a concern even if broken in the future. A long consolidation period may just shift it to the future.

jsl

 

 

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=11590&extra=page%3D1 (美元逐渐转强 金价或跌破800)

美元对黄金和石油的影响是毋庸置疑的。LZ的见解和论据很专业。

 

对于石油，美元的影响只是一方面，demand increase and peak oil acknowledgement are also import for the dramatic rise of oil price.

 

对于黄金，recent appreciation also reflect the investors' appetite for long term commodity exposure with relative low risk. As for what is a good investment entry level for mid-term, I don't know, 700-800 is probably good.

 

The food commodity price are likely to experience a pull back soon, not the end consumer price however. This volatility may keep oil and gold in the current level or lower for some while. As a result, the stock market may have a rally of some kind. The timing is tricky for me, since I am still quite bearish for now.

(这个帖子发的很不爽，不小心错按了键，输入了两遍，nnd)

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-5-5 00:39 编辑 ]

jsl

some say the worst is over, some say something like the last one is coming. I mainly refer to those using chart comparisons between now and 6-7 years ago (no offense).

 

I don't think the worst is over, but it won't be much worse either and I will be prepared to take another leg down as an opportunity. I still maintain my target of 1200-1250 on S&P. If one has the ability to pick good names, it will be good to stay a bit long and sell covered calls to play the waiting game.

 

nstar

Cant agree more!

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-5 00:55 发表 some say the worst is over, some say something like the last one is coming. I mainly refer to those using chart comparisons between now and 6-7 years ago (no offense).   I don't think the worst ...

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-5-5 00:55 发表 题目听起来很好，就写个短的吧

 

本来打算今天一定写出来，不过实在没时间。大概说说，现在股市的焦点在inflation，主要是food / gas price。food短缺是因为美国人把大量土地投入biofuel。所以归根结底只有一个问题，就是oil。oil背后是阿拉伯人，他们虽然手上石油美元多，但是国内经济脆弱。真出点事，这油价降下来也是很容易的事。油价要是真的降下来了，就没什么能拦住这头疯牛了。

xiaobailong

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-5-5 04:12 发表   本来打算今天一定写出来，不过实在没时间。大概说说，现在股市的焦点在inflation，主要是food / gas price。food短缺是因为美国人把大量土地投入biofuel。所以归根结底只有一个问题，就是oil。oil背后是阿 ...

油价一跌，小布什的军队就在伊朗湾开两枪，这油价就又上去了。阿拉伯世界真要出什么事情，石油挖不出来，油价不是更要涨吗？

xiaobailong

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-5 09:09 发表 油价一跌，小布什的军队就在伊朗湾开两枪，这油价就又上去了。阿拉伯世界真要出什么事情，石油挖不出来，油价不是更要涨吗？

现在就看共和党是要大选，还是要眼前的石油利益。怎么样在这二者之间取得平衡。