No, option is very complex and stay away from it if you have no idea how it works.
It has cost me lots of money to master the option operations.
In your example, all options will lose money if tomorrow is a Doji around today's closing price 78.94.
If a drop to 76.5 happens, today's ITM puts will make money.
SPY OE closed at a price 76.x which is closer to 77.0 than 76.0.
All cash now. Didn't make money this week but didn't lose either. But when SPX was at 803.xx, I lost 3-month profits. MMs are devils.
Expect a few days pig market between 750 and 780.
Will start to build short positions when SPX@775.
Today's SPX high 803.24, still < 804.47.
SPY OE should be between 76 and 79.x, still think Case 1 closing at a price 76.x close to 77.0 is more likely.
This requires a pattern similar to 12/4/2007, a day during the rebound after a non-capitulation drop.
But Case 2 is also very possible that this time repeats 9/2007 OE, then tomorrow will be a small spinning top, with a closing price close to 79. (between today's closing price and 79.5)
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-19 19:24
You must have played with March options, do need guts to do that.
So you still stick with your 800-720-780-600 (or as low as 550) target? No long before 600? This is what I now wish for through April. In terms of wave counts, just finished 4A, in 4b now to 720-730, then 4c goes to 780 area. Then wave 5 will let us meet below 600 to get the eventual "no panic no bottom".
Case 1 valid.
SPY OE closed at a price 76.x which is closer to 77.0 than 76.0.
All cash now. Didn't make money this week but didn't lose either. But when SPX was at 803.xx, I lost ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-20 16:02
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-3-19 08:04 PM
发表于 2009-3-20 03:23 PM