SPX Notes 2009

小咪

728# bayliner1979


谢谢

bayliner1979

The probability was already written in my #728 post.

I expect that at 4:00pm EDT this Friday SPY will close at 76.x, QQQQ will close at 28.x.
So tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, one is long red Marubozu and one is Doji.
It doesn't matter which one is which one.

731# bayliner1979

Lao Da, in addition to a big drop tomorrow as you suggested, how likely do you see SPX closing above (maybe slightly) 805 tomorrow and then going down on OE day?
BSW 发表于 2009-3-18 17:13

weigoodone01

manhattan

"I expect that at 4:00pm EDT this Friday SPY will close at 76.x, QQQQ will close at 28.x.
So tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, one is long red Marubozu and one is Doji.
It doesn't matter which one is which one."

Could you elaborate on your reasons for your prediction?

笨妞妞

Thank you bay lao da!

ivymay99

谢谢BAY老大!

sgli

thanks

开小差

742# bayliner1979 thx.ding

comecomegogo

Thanks for Laoda's update, your pics are so funny. love them.

秋之皓月

今天老秋再说SPX ８２５的缺口要补掉， 信了吧。。。
下次是补完后老秋再来CONFIRM 一下了。。。

秋之皓月 发表于 2009-3-17 12:39

今天803+了。。。 这下825没问题了吧？

cyco

Where is Bay laoda? We are waiting for you.

buctusa

Co-Ask for BayBay!

bayliner1979

Today's SPX high 803.24, still < 804.47.
SPY OE should be between 76 and 79.x, still think Case 1 closing at a price 76.x close to 77.0 is more likely.
This requires a pattern similar to 12/4/2007, a day during the rebound after a non-capitulation drop.

But Case 2 is also very possible that this time repeats 9/2007 OE, then tomorrow will be a small spinning top, with a closing price close to 79.  (between today's closing price and 79.5)

Phantom bars can be seen from SPY charts while there is no corresponding candlestick on SPX charts.

Well, today also got burnt and lost my 2-month profits, but no change in the big picture 800->720->78x->5xx.
SPX 1/20/2009 low is 804.47, today's high is 803.04.  Still valid to be Elliot wave points 1 and 4, respectively.
However, SPY 1/20/2009 low is 80.05, today's high is 80.90.  This doesn't look good for wave counting.
So MMs left an ambiguous sign today.   But with higher probability, 803.04 (or 804 if Doji tomorrow) is the point 4.

Plans:
A. Option variation suggests a big drop to ~760 tomorrow.  If not, a Doji is likely to be formed with lower high than today's high, then the big picture is still valid.  SPX wave 5 target < 600, no long before 600.
B. Otherwise (with 20% probability), I will recover short positions at 78x and go long.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-18 17:04

ddd

这次会retrace 61.8% （751）吗？

bayliner1979

两周内肯定会访问751的，明天可能不行。

这次会retrace 61.8% （751）吗？
ddd 发表于 2009-3-19 19:26

skitty

  Like Bay!

hyf

755# bayliner1979

老大:问您个OE问题，我不会OPTION,大家买OPTION，OE收盘是否离谁买的价格越近越赚钱？比如，明天收76.50，是否谁买的76。50附近的挣钱，80.00和70.00可能就赔了？谢谢

jasmin256

hxx437

bay lao da, what's your opinion on next two weeks after OE? big drop? what's your plan for next weeks?

OrangeTea