SPX Notes 2009

Maxie

what is the best pricing source to see these phantoms?

ivymay99

thanks

QSCNC

716# ddd


I like Bay's update everyday, Thanks to Bay first.

But this is a good point as well. Think differently may help us.

darth

jeeplover

where is Bay兄？？

turbotornado

so many phantom bars!

buctusa

BayBay, pls help us................................

bayliner1979

Phantom bars can be seen from SPY charts while there is no corresponding candlestick on SPX charts.

Well, today also got burnt and lost my 2-month profits, but no change in the big picture 800->720->78x->5xx.
SPX 1/20/2009 low is 804.47, today's high is 803.04.  Still valid to be Elliot wave points 1 and 4, respectively.
However, SPY 1/20/2009 low is 80.05, today's high is 80.90.  This doesn't look good for wave counting.
So MMs left an ambiguous sign today.   But with higher probability, 803.04 (or 804 if Doji tomorrow) is the point 4.

Plans:
A. Option variation suggests a big drop to ~760 tomorrow.  If not, a Doji is likely to be formed with lower high than today's high, then the big picture is still valid.  SPX wave 5 target < 600, no long before 600.
B. Otherwise (with 20% probability), I will recover short positions at 78x and go long.

what is the best pricing source to see these phantoms?
Maxie 发表于 2009-3-17 21:46

面包车

船老大不出来说说， 我们可要哭出来了。

lite1067

thanks, bay laoda.

What conditions will trigger you to exec plan (B)?

bayliner1979

SPX closes above 805.

thanks, bay laoda.

What conditions will trigger you to exec plan (B)?
lite1067 发表于 2009-3-18 17:06

benmao

thanks bay laoda

ppteam

731# bayliner1979

不需要吧，只要碰一下就可以

lite1067

SPX closes above 805.


bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-18 16:08

sigh, all the EW counter are looking at this. today is already razor-close.

BSW

731# bayliner1979

Lao Da, in addition to a big drop tomorrow as you suggested, how likely do you see SPX closing above (maybe slightly) 805 tomorrow and then going down on OE day?

buctusa

Thank you for pointing out direction

KAI2002

不容易啊，今天。

leftright

thank you very much

jasmin256

笑口常开

thanks Laoda for update