|
|
发表于 2011-6-1 03:02 PM
|
显示全部楼层
Jobless rate to top 7% until 2016, budget officer warns (RTGAM)
Michael Babad
These are stories Report on Business is following Wednesday, June 1. Get the top business stories through the day on BlackBerry or iPhone by bookmarking our mobile-friendly webpage.
Follow Michael Babad and Globe top business news on Twitter
PBO takes dim view
Canada's Parliamentary Budget Officer has a dire view of the labour market, projecting the jobless rate will top 7 per cent until 2016.
In new forecasts released today, Kevin Page sees unemployment running at 7.8 per cent both this year and next, dipping to 7.7 per cent in 2013, 7.5 per cent in 2014, and 7.1 per cent in 2015.
It won't be until a year later that the jobless rate falls to 6.7 per cent, still above the pre-recession level.
The PBO's forecasts are much gloomier than those provided in March by the government, which were based on private sector forecasts.
As The Globe and Mail's Bill Curry reports, the PBO has opted to do in-house economic analysis, rather than relying on the private forecasts as Ottawa does.
The PBO’s own view is more pessimistic than the private-sector average, which in turn leads the office to maintain its view that Ottawa's deficit will not be erased by 2015-16.
The Conservatives promised during the election campaign to move up that target for returning to surplus by one year.
"Recent economic data show that the Canadian economy expanded by 3.9 per cent (annual rate) in the first quarter of 2011," the PBO said.
"Despite this strong growth, the unemployment rate remains elevated and average weekly hours worked remains below pre‐recession levels ... PBO continues to estimate that the Canadian economy is operating below its full capacity."
Budget watchdog shirks rosier private-sector data, opts for in-house forecasts
Moody's hits Greece again
Greece just can't catch a break. As markets increasingly speculate that it will be forced to restructure its debts, and European leaders work on a new rescue effort, Moody's Investors Service has again downgraded the country's debt. And it says could still cut more.
Moody's said today it downgraded Greece to Caa1 from B1, with a negative outlook. It warned that Greece is running out of options, though doesn't think a debt restructuring is inevitable. The downgrade was in light of the "increased risk" that Greece won't find its footing without a restructuring.
Many market observers see a restructuring as invitable.
"A second Greek bailout package, perhaps involving some form of voluntary debt rescheduling, won’t address Greece’s fundamental problems and won’t prevent a major restructuring in the future," said Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics.
"The European Commission and some national governments, led by Germany, have pushed for Greece to undertake some form of 'soft' debt restructuring or rescheduling," he said in a report today.
"But the European Central Bank (ECB) has remained steadfastly opposed to the idea and warned that any restructuring would render Greek debt ineligible as collateral for ECB loans. Reports on Wednesday suggested that some sort of compromise package is currently being discussed which might combine an additional bailout with a voluntary debt roll-over along the lines of the 'Vienna initiative' used in Eastern Europe in 2009. Details are sketchy but the basic idea is that investors will be offered incentives such as higher coupons, preferred creditor status or even some form of collateral to exchange bonds maturing in the next few years for those of longer maturities. The hope seems to be that this will circumvent the ECB’s definition of default and hence protect the new bonds’ collateral status."
CIBC World Markets economist Emanuella Enenajor said the most likely scenario is an "enhanced package" that would see Greece past its 2012 refinancing needs. That would mean a minimum of |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-6-1 03:06 PM