SPX Notes 2009

Ave

Bay and Q sister, this is my favorite thread at HT and I check everyday! Thanks for the effort and keep going. Looking forward to learn more from you...

小咪

617# bayliner1979

谢谢BAYBAY

Persistance

Thank you so much, Agent Smith and QJ!!!

Wolf

thanks a lot

ppteam

617# bayliner1979

I think soon market might begin to pull back till mid of next week, then rally to 780+ towards OE and post OE, target 796.
If so, that's perfect OE play, see what happens.

bayliner1979

The most bullish case I see is based on 4/10/2008--4/18/2008, when the candlestick pattern matches EXACTLY with the one between 3/4/2009 and today.
Then the OE will close at today's high, which is about 750.
This is possible if EMA(13) merges up with the BB midline.

But 770+ is very unlikely.

I mostly think the rally from 666 is an OE play to kill expensive puts.  It is not a meaningful bottom----it became a short-term bottom just because the March OE is coming.   If so, it doesn't make sense for the MMs to push the price higher than the necessary high at the OE time.

617# bayliner1979

I think soon market might begin to pull back till mid of next week, then rally to 780+ towards OE and post OE, target 796.
If so, that's perfect OE play, see what happens.
ppteam 发表于 2009-3-12 23:40

hyf

BAY老大：数波派都认为现在是三浪中的四浪，今天是四浪A，看B走多远，C的目标大概780-804.（OE或OE后一周）。如果C过810，则三浪结束，现在是大四浪。您曾么看？谢谢

bayliner1979

I am a swing trader.  I don't count waves.

hyf

谢老大。

ddd

Bay老大请看2008-2009的OE图：
四月 - upper BB
五月 - upper BB
六月 - lower BB
七月 - EMA13
八月 - between EMA13 and upper BB
九月 - same as above
十月 - between EMA13 and lower BB (10/17)
十一月 - closer to lower BB
十二月 - EMA13
一月 - between EMA13 and lower BB
二月 - lower BB

So really its anywhere within BB - inconclusive regarding EMA13 as a target. In reviewing the OE results in 2009 it hasn't landed on EMA13 just yet.

Also notice how "irregular" the WWW and OE weeks have become lately. Since Nov OE have landed on low or lowest notes for their weeks. Why would Mar be back to "regular"?

bayliner1979

That is my conclusion and I have my reasons.  If you read the posts carefully, you already know some of them.

hyf

BAY老大：早盘盘前已经到了758，今天会冲770-780么？谢谢

shi33

这贴真长。没想到有bay的及时update。

Diver

The most bullish case I see is based on 4/10/2008--4/18/2008, when the candlestick pattern matches EXACTLY with the one between 3/4/2009 and today.
Then the OE will close at today's high, which is ab ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-13 00:50

Maxie

bayliner1979

Well, today is like both nov.27.2008 and feb.9.2009.  (should be nov.28 as nov.27 was a market close day)

$NYADV overbought finally.  The firework is over.
Expect a small gap down Monday morning and a big drop to 71x at close.

Today is just like Nov.26.2008 (while yesterday was like nov.25.2008, the day before yesterday nov.24.2008).
But tomorrow is unlikely like nov.27.
Instead, the relation between today and tomorrow could be like 2/6/2009 and 2/9/2009.

According to Maserati's MAD postday law, tomorrow Doji on MA(20)/BB midline, fluctuates in 74x and 75x.
Short-term: 75x => 69x => 725 @ OE.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-12 18:12

Diver

Thanks Bay Laoda so much for the update and your great insight.

  

Well, today is like both nov.27.2008 and feb.9.2009.  (should be nov.28 as nov.27 was a market close day)

$NYADV overbought finally.  The firework is over.
Expect a small gap down Monday morning a ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-13 16:53

yingying

656# bayliner1979

Hi, Bay. AH's high is already higher than today's regular hours' high. This rally may haven't done yet. Do you think there's a big chance to gap down open on Monday? Thank you!

Maxie

Me Likie!

shi33

thanks bay's update.