SPX Notes 2009

Niubao

又顶上来。 今天touch了730。

buctusa

Bay Lao Da, any updates?

jeeplover

bayliner1979

今天后半段完全估计错了。

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=39940&page=2#pid461112

I think the current EMA(13)=~725 is about the OE closing price.   For the past year, OE either closes at around EMA(13) (sometimes between EMA(13) and EMA(34)) or BB lower bound.

Given the fact that the past two months OE closed at BB lower bound, the 3rd time could be different.   (Cobra's 6th law: the 3rd time could be different. )

原来预计跌到650，再在OE时涨回725。
按现在放焰火放到一半还有7 trading days的走法，这样走时间不够了。
所以改成先=> 77x (EMA(34) & Feb.26 Phantom bar)，再 => 69x => 725 @ OE。今天 = Nov.25.2008.



PS: 按老吴头的图，http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=39578&extra=page%3D1
还是我原来想的那个走法。如果是这个走法，DOW 7000是本周的顶，明天将大跌。

所以明天很关键，明天大涨则是改变后的走法:=>77x => 69x => 725 @ OE。
明天大跌则有两个可能，(1) => 6[234]x => 725@OE,  (2) OE收BB lower bound。


{:7_369:}

肥皂泡

老大又变成短期牛了

hyf

老大：找不到NOV26的图，您能说说明天会如何走？谢谢

slcgh

thanks a lot. lao da bay

bayliner1979

按老吴头的图，http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=39578&extra=page%3D1
还是我原来想的那个走法。如果是这个走法，DOW 7000是本周的顶，今天焰火就结束了，明天将大跌。

所以明天很关键，明天大涨则是改变后的走法:=>77x => 69x => 725 @ OE。
明天大跌则有两个可能，(1) => 6[234]x => 725@OE。 (2) BB lower bound @ OE。

老大：找不到NOV26的图，您能说说明天会如何走？谢谢
hyf 发表于 2009-3-11 19:06

QQQ

Bay, don't scare me with your 770. I use my second pair of glasses and only see 740-750 for this little 5 if we ever get one.

秋之皓月

嘿嘿。。。 825还有缺口没补呢。。。 SPX几乎从不留缺口的。。。

bayliner1979

A few minutes ago, Cobra already modified his 1.0.3 SPY chart to see a target at 80.65 w/ head-and-shoulder bottom pattern.

I still remember the Feb.26 phantom bar @ 77, which should be fulfilled within the swing trade deadline (typically 2 weeks).

Bay, don't scare me with your 770. I use my second pair of glasses and only see 740-750 for this little 5 if we ever get one.
QQQ 发表于 2009-3-11 19:13

zxy600

thank you for sharing. What is "BB lower bound"?

bayliner1979

3 Bollinger Band lines: upperbound line, middle line, lowerbound line.

592# zxy600

QQQ

then I need wear 3 pairs of glasses to see if I can see 825 before 3/26. anything that above 770 will change current count to B instead 4 of minor 5 of major A.

benmao

看来明天很关键,赶快给妞妞/熊熊拍电报哈

buctusa

Firework tomorrow?

bayliner1979

I don't think 82x is possible before this OE, maybe some future OEs.
77x is quite feasible though (if big up tomorrow).

then I need wear 3 pairs of glasses to see if I can see 825 before 3/26. anything that above 770 will change current count to B instead 4 of minor 5 of major A.
QQQ 发表于 2009-3-11 19:23

buctusa

Lao Da, if tomorrow is up, it should be Gap Up?

Or down first and then reverse?

If Gap Up is highly possible, I might consider loading AH

I don't think 82x is possible before this OE, maybe some future OEs.
77x is quite feasible though (if big up tomorrow).



bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-11 19:26

秋之皓月

then I need wear 3 pairs of glasses to see if I can see 825 before 3/26. anything that above 770 will change current count to B instead 4 of minor 5 of major A.
QQQ 发表于 2009-3-11 15:23

Don't preset a time to your target... target is target... time is time... i didn't say before 3/26 SPX will see 825... anything wrong if this gap fills after 3/26??

I only tell you there is a gap there... and SPX seldom keeps gap open...

我是谁

599# 秋之皓月

We might fill the gap 82.5 brfore April OE 2015?