准备长期持仓的朋友最好等明天再决定。

dzyx

《道德经》云：“勇于敢者死，勇于不敢者生！”

长期会难做，中短期会好一点。Shorten the time to hold LONG position and slightly increase the holding time for SHORT position at this moment.

Market still pointng to the down side in near term.

For other viewers, YMYD.

bobcat

长期会难做，中短期会好一点。Shorten the time to hold LONG position and slightly increase the holding time for SHORT position at this moment.

Market still pointng to the down side in near term ...
dzyx 发表于 2009-10-30 12:37

最近超短线也许不如短、中线。

Diffusion

最近超短线也许不如短、中线。
bobcat 发表于 2009-10-30 14:11

短中线向上还是向下？

bobcat

短中线向上还是向下？
Diffusion 发表于 2009-10-30 14:35

我说的“最近”是指这几个月时间，短中线做多的赢利大概超过超短线做多。市场趋势强时往往是这样。

Diffusion

我说的“最近”是指这几个月时间，短中线做多的赢利大概超过超短线做多。市场趋势强时往往是这样。
bobcat 发表于 2009-10-30 15:09

I see, you are saying "recently", I though it was "near future".

估计这样的好日子不会再有了...

bobcat

I see, you are saying "recently", I though it was "near future".

估计这样的好日子不会再有了...
Diffusion 发表于 2009-10-30 15:13

如果大跌一阵，就会带来新的机会。如果较稳定地发展，市场效率将逐渐增高，不论做什么交易，
都会越来越难。
炒家绝大多数，不论是做超短线的、短线或中线的大致从三月以来都会以做多为主。Dzyx 大致
以做中线为主，从三月开始重仓做多，到一周前出仓，在这些月的超强趋势下，必定战果硕硕。
我们做超短线的，中间反而会漏掉不少机会。超短钱的好处是，风险极小，在震荡的股市中较其他方法
收益高。

dzyx

从Q3的数据看，SP500 2010年的EPS想达到73可能会有困难，可能也是股市担忧而下跌的原因。

比较理想的是本波掉到950点左右。

如果年底收1200点，明年将可能是平成一年或是yoyo一年。

dong_wd

stringzero

象楼主致敬

多吉

RE: 准备长期持仓的朋友最好等明天再决定。

Q3 GDP的构成并不理想。而且Revenue的projection不好。




dzyx 发表于 2009-10-29 10:35 AM

兼听则明，看看老印分析师乐观的commentary是怎么解读这Q3 GDP数据的。。。





Recession is history, economy back in business
Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust
October 29, 2009 - Daily Global Commentary


“The recession is behind us. Real gross domestic product of the US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter after a 0.75 drop in the prior quarter. This is the first increase of real GDP after a string of four quarterly declines. Real GDP has declined in five out of the six quarters of the recession.



“The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research will make the official announcement after it confirms the turning point based on revisions of economic data. This recession is the longest on record in the post-war period and the deepest also. Real GDP has declined 3.8% from the peak in the second quarter of 2008 to the trough in the second quarter of 2009. This is the largest peak-to-trough decline of real GDP in the post-war period



“In the third quarter, consumer spending accounted for the largest part of the growth in real GDP, followed by exports, inventories and residential investment expenditures. Of these four components, exports and inventories are most likely to continue to make large contributions in the quarters ahead. Consumer spending is projected to advance in the quarters ahead but at a noticeably slower pace. The surge in auto sales from the ‘cash for clunkers’ program in the third quarter provided the temporary lift to consumer spending.

“Going forward, the lift to the headline GDP number in the third quarter is partly from future auto sales, which implies that consumer spending and GDP growth are most likely to show more muted growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010. The Fed is hold for several months until it is confirmed the unemployment rate has peaked.”

dzyx

听起来，兄台还是旧相识？

撇开其它的数据光看失业率。我个人的看法，这两者并不矛盾。

我在3、4月是对Q3和Q4 GDP的预测是3%和4.2%，在5、6月对失业率的预测是：“it will be peaked during November to January 2010 这段时间”。

股市目前的回调，我的看法是基于几大原因： （1）股价在discount明年可能出现的低增长，现在没人心理有底明年会怎样。领先指数已显示有明年增长率降低的迹象，但还不能肯定。但低增长还是增长，我对经济前景有信心；（2）股价对200MA的偏离超过2个STDEV，股价在这个区域待不长。（3）公司Q3开支还是-2%，这个Q4会转好，但Q3这么低有点出乎预料。

10月份的数据显示，inventory补充开始了，Q4一定会高过Q3。

好好利用这次回调。