09/18/2009 大盘回顾 （Bullish Percent Index Record High）

atrader

thanks!

rosyrosy

happyface

ROOKIE2

WELL DONE!

Bencat

good, thanks.

Noah

Thanks!

Dtrader

Cobra,

In the past several months, whatever you wrote, you showed deep bearish bias. 8 out of 10 days you tried your best to find some plausible bearish indicators, which undoubtely affected many readers ' sentimentals, me included at early time.

As bull market often lasts way more than 6 months, and even yourself expected SP500 reach 1200 sometime in the near futrue, why not make a big change in your writing by experimenting having constant bull bias?

It may sound like a crazy idea, but I bet you will be hailed as genius soon as long as you dare to stick to bullish bias no matter what happen in the market for the next 6 months.

But I knew you won't change, right?

Ave

想发

Thanks

quickcow

Cobra,

In the past several months, whatever you wrote, you showed deep bearish bias. 8 out of 10 days you tried your best to find some plausible bearish indicators, which undoubtely affected many  ...
Dtrader 发表于 2009-9-20 14:55

老蛇是谨言慎行。  那么多人天天看。  大鸣大放，万一把人坑了怎么办？  

再说老蛇现在有客观的短中长信号，有他自己的感觉， 剩下的读者自己定了。

实在不行，咱们那他当反指。

humbletrader

Cobra

Cobra,

In the past several months, whatever you wrote, you showed deep bearish bias. 8 out of 10 days you tried your best to find some plausible bearish indicators, which undoubtely affected many  ...
Dtrader 发表于 2009-9-20 14:55

抱歉哈，看不明白你说的是啥意思。

Cobra

Cobra,

In the past several months, whatever you wrote, you showed deep bearish bias. 8 out of 10 days you tried your best to find some plausible bearish indicators, which undoubtely affected many  ...
Dtrader 发表于 2009-9-20 14:55

另外，俺也没看SPX 1200。

surya

xuetu

53# Cobra


:lol

Dtrader

52# Cobra


Corbra,

Sorry for my frankness, I really enjoyed your writing, but I did feel you showed a lot of unfounded bearish bias in your writing, for example:

1. You like to put emphasis on not high vol. as rally being suspicious, but if you dig furthur, you will find research already done  in wall street that overall vol. has almost 0 correlation with market up or down

2. You like to put emphasis on technical indicator divergence as rally being suspicious, but logically after strong price move (up or down), divergence (often means momentum decrease)  should be norm (>80%), no-divergence should be rare. Market may pull back, but it is often not due to divergence

3. A lot of data near high, which you often suspect market pull back soon, like number of unfilled gaps, or market already up 6 days in a row, or $BPSPX near high etc., but do you really have statistical basis for them? You mention them in a kind of bearish way, but you can definitely mention the same thing in a bullish way if you want. To me, actuualy only very few works if agaisnt big trend.

I really feel you can interprete the indicators better way to be with the market, but it still could be just  my illusion. Thanks for bearing my ranting.

PacificLegend

Cobra

52# Cobra


Corbra,

Sorry for my frankness, I really enjoyed your writing, but I did feel you showed a lot of unfounded bearish bias in your writing, for example:

1. You like to put emphas ...
Dtrader 发表于 2009-9-20 16:55

收到。非常感谢，俺也同意，并且也意识到这些问题了，有的时候明明是long term bullish的，因为short-term有可能negative，被俺一说，就成了bearish的。最典型的是这个报告说BPI record high，俺本意其实不是bearish，估计大家都看成bearish了。这个俺想法改进吧。你提得很好，再次感谢，以后还请多提宝贵意见。

另外，关于数据统计，俺最近买了软件，正在测试俺的很多idea，有的被证明是对的，有的被证明是错的。比如，你说的price up on volume down，介个确实并不bearish（不过俺真的其实没有认为这个马上就bearish。如果你指的是Russell 3000 Dominant Price Volume Relationship的话，介个，俺是抄的Don Worden的，他的理论依据在哪里，俺不知道。这方面的数据测试，也有人做过，好像Don Worden有一定的道理，当然不总是work啦）。又比如，俺也发现，确实连涨n天，并不是做空的理由。Anyway，俺明白了，太局限于局部细节，没啥意义，还是看看森林比较好。

trueself

thanks!

zhyangi