这里是最近几天一直拉锯的地方

flying_bird

37# dara

something great to know. thanks.

兼听则明

唉！罢了！
我还是闭嘴好了。
CoolMax 发表于 2009-8-11 14:52

我没有说你不对啊，我刚才也买了。只是在你的基础上再补充一下，提醒大家小心。不要以为现在就可以高枕无忧了。很多事情还没有确定。不确定有不确定的做法。对吧？

其实到底大盘怎么走，还是要看基本面的，现在谁都不知道。

Cobra

现在institution没啥，就是有钱。Liquidity介么高，俺是想不出来，咋才能让institution突然没钱了。

Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action.   If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up.    Right now, Liquidity inflows are remaining very high as discussed last week.  Yesterday, there was a small down tick on liquidity.

dara

Finance is pretty weak today,

BAC/WFC/C did not attend today's rally at all.

兼听则明

Hoho, I am tired to write something now. You post what I thought.

To be a long now? buy Apple at 160+, GS at 160+, even if they go to 200, so what? that is only 15% gain.
The down side? I w ...
dara 发表于 2009-8-11 14:46

你说的没有错，现在都是些骨头。除非将来大跌，跌出空间。
FRE是个DT的好标的，明天就玩它了。

Cobra

Some of the Institutional investors were concerned about the dropping volume as the market rallied.  This first chart below, show's the SPY and its volume with a 14 day simple moving average.  During this bear market, there were 6 occasions where the volume's 14 SMA moved down and then broke a resistance line to the upside.  On all 6 occasions, the SPY went lower afterwards.

 

Today: As you can see on the chart, the SPY started trending up in March, and its 14 day SMA shows that the volume has been down trending since.  Last Friday, the SPY's volume moved slightly ABOVE its resistance line.  However, there was no confirmation from the NYA Down Volume, so a the SPY volume condition is negated.  (The studies I ran showed that the a SPY volume break to the upside needed the confirmation of the NYA Down Volume breaking a trend to the upside.)

 

ppteam

明天可能会很热闹。K。

dara

你说的没有错，现在都是些骨头。除非将来大跌，跌出空间。
FRE是个DT的好标的，明天就玩它了。
兼听则明 发表于 2009-8-11 15:03

FNM was my money machine last year.

I got almost 500+ call when FNM drop from 35 to 18 then to 35+ in the same month right before OE last year.

weigoodone01

Cobra lao da:

Based on what you posts about liquidity and declining volume, seems point to a confusing outcome. Volume tells us a potential big drop is imminent; while the liquidity story says otherwise. I am wondering if liquidity is so high, how come the volume is so low. So it's just MMs sell from left hand to buy from right hand!

Diffusion

唉！罢了！
我还是闭嘴好了。
CoolMax 发表于 2009-8-11 14:52

酷玛的意思是这四点很确定，所以是good play。没参透这层意思，那是把炒股当成猜大小，应该回去反省。

Cobra

Cobra lao da:

Based on what you posts about liquidity and declining volume, seems point to a confusing outcome. Volume tells us a potential big drop is imminent; while the liquidity story says othe ...
weigoodone01 发表于 2009-8-11 15:13

呵呵，你说的对啊，俺没仔细想。俺已经发现stocktiming的很多model有点似是而非了。俺觉得还是看volume比较好啦，paid service的model，不一定准确。

Cobra

呵呵，你说的对啊，俺没仔细想。俺已经发现stocktiming的很多model有点似是而非了。俺觉得还是看volume比较好啦，paid service的model，不一定准确。
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-11 15:20

根据stocktiming.com的思路，弄出来的volume watch确实很有意思哈。

Diffusion

根据stocktiming.com的思路，弄出来的volume watch确实很有意思哈。

22730
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-11 15:25

有趣，是不是看price / volume divergence? 没有量支持的新低新高就会转向？

Cobra

有趣，是不是看price / volume divergence? 没有量支持的新低新高就会转向？
Diffusion 发表于 2009-8-11 15:29

NYDNV很低的时候就是top。有空，俺好好研究一下这个东东，这是新武器。

zero

weigoodone01

根据stocktiming.com的思路，弄出来的volume watch确实很有意思哈。

22730
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-11 15:25

This is good. So the market is likely close to a top if not passed!

兼听则明

酷玛的意思是这四点很确定，所以是good play。没参透这层意思，那是把炒股当成猜大小，应该回去反省。
Diffusion 发表于 2009-8-11 15:16

现在还确定吗？ 当然如果是三重底会更牢靠点。但是一定会吗？

记住，在股市里不确定是必然，确定是偶然。如果炒股票就是看几张图那么简单，还有人上班？

当然我没说图不好，我也看图，但它只是参考。所谓的支撑和阻力都可以破的，只是有些强一点，有些弱一点。看图只是增加了赢的概率。除了图以外，还有很多东西帮我们提高赢的概率，但是即使你全部掌握，也只是大大提高赢的概率，而不是必赢。

所以做投资切忌太迷信，太执着，否则，会死的很惨。

记得我在SWIFTTRADE 培训的时候，老外经理对我们说了这样一个故事：以前有一个公司里的TRADER，突然发现了一种交易方法，百试百灵。然后的几个月，他一直是公司的TOP TRADER,每个月都赚十几万，但是后来。。。    这种事情天天都在发生，千万不要以为自己很聪明。要知道有多少人在那里研究致命绝招，但是真的有吗？

trueself

现在还确定吗？

记住，在股市里不确定是必然，确定是偶然。如果炒股票就是看几张图那么简单，还有人上班？

当然我没说图不好，我也看图，但它只是参考。所谓的支撑和阻力都可以破的，只是有些强一点，有些 ...
兼听则明 发表于 2009-8-11 16:29

【切忌太迷信，太执着】

大顶！

lazbug

waiting for next weak double head or weak new high,

penguin