本帖最后由 多吉 于 2009-7-4 10:03 编辑
Laoda, please post every day!!! I trust you most.
dara 发表于 2009-7-3 02:12 AM 
这一轮看空做空，Dow Theory风头很健啊，两次都right on time：
1) 6月12日此文发表，Next交易日大盘就开跌，SPX一气没去60点。
Dow Theory Nonconfirmation in Transports and Industrials
Jun 12, 2009: 4:07 PM CST
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
There’s interesting chatter in the “Dow Theory” community as to whether we’re experiencing a non-confirmation in the Industrials and Transports currently - namely, the Industrials are at a new high for 2009 and are above the 200 day SMA while the Transports are not. Let’s take a look at both.
Dow Jones Industrial Index:
One may also ask the question “Is there a ‘Three Push’ Reversal pattern forming in the Dow Jones?” It would appear so, with three consolidating ‘pushes’ or impulses up that have formed on three lower highs in the 3/10 Momentum Oscillator. That alone is a serious non-confirmation of higher prices.
We also see a volume divergence setting in underneath price, with volume in the Dow Jones Index (1.1 Billion today) reaching a level that is clearly below the recent average - more importantly is the “trailing off.”
One can also see the multitude of ‘dojis’ (often known for their ‘reversal’ signal) that have formed over the last two weeks - that is showing signs of serious indecision.
In terms of Dow Theory, the Industrials have made a new high and have risen above their 200 day Simple Moving Average which is classically bullish… but the Transports Index has not.
Dow Jones Transportation Index:
Again, while the Dow recently formed new highs for 2009, the Transports could neither break above their May highs nor its 200 day simple moving average.
A negative momentum divergence has also formed as well as a negative volume divergence.
I could have easily titled this post “Major Sell Signal in the Dow Jones Index” but I dare not be so bold, given the ability of the market to rise against a negative fundamental and technical backdrop.
From a chart (technical) standpoint, the chart is literally screaming “sell signal,” but still we operate in a world of probabilities and stranger things have happened, so do continue to guard your risk and do your own analysis for additional insights.
2) 7月1日中午此文发表，市场当场就以大跌回应，第二天SPX更是一举抹去27点。。。
DOW 理论没有给出买入信号 2009-07-01 11:44:19 EST
大千。股弟
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200907&postID=259
道理论认为，道琼工业指数（INDU）和运输指数（TRAN）必须一致突破它们的前高点或者低点，才能确定基本市场趋势，发出买入或者卖出的信号。
所有的运输股，譬如民航、卡车和铁路必先于经济复苏而上涨。今年三月份反弹以来道运输指数未能突破今年一月六日的高点（3737）。道琼工业指数一直未能突破一月六日的高点（9088）。
除非这个突破发生，不然道理论不会给出“买入”信号。
最为接近的一次是五月十一日INDU日内高点为8877，而五月七日TRAN日内高点为3458。
现在看来，二季度的季报不可能太好。因此短期内这一目标不太可能达到。DOW 理论没有给出买入信号。
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-7-3 08:00 AM
