2012-10-W4

Diffusion

bucks

hellofriend

snowrider

No trade for today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:
- SPY 20% (10%-07/11, 10%-07/24)
- Cash 80%

SAC Troop:
- TBT 22% (10/25)
- XME 25% (10/25)
- Cash 53%

The market closed as a pin with lower shadow penetrating the past few day's flat area's lower boundary, indicating that perhaps the market is bottomed.  Today's low also hit a 50% fib retracement measured from wave-[B] (07/24/2012).  Hence a sizeable rebound is possible next week, given the significance of today's low.

Wave count (based on the purple line scenario):
06/19's high = [A]
07/24's low = [B]
10/05's high = [C]
10/12's low = A
10/18's high = B
10/26's low = [D].C
11/09's high = [E] @ 1500

Alternative Count:
10/12's low = I
10/18's high = II
10/26's low = III.1
10/31's high = III.2 @ 1433
11/07's low = III.3 @ 1372

snowrider

vanbj

  Thanks for the update!

ethanlinear

顶雪大

daveyhorl99

contr

snowrider 发表于 2012-10-26 04:45 PM
No trade for today.  The following explains my portfolio as of today's close:

Big Troop:

I like your SAC troop:)

bucks

austinjoe

Thank you for updating your wave count -- there are many other wavers hold the same view as your purple line, i.e. from 6/3//2012 low, SPX is 5 wave rise, finished 1, 2, 3 and the current drop is wave 4 which should be done on 10/26/2012 low 1403. Purple line viewers are expecting SPX new high > 1474.

However, from 缠论级别, this wave count does not match. The down run from 10/05 SPX 1471 should be on the same 级别 as the rise from 6/3/2012 low SPX 1266. Hence I think your alternative count is the the right one. We'll see how market verify it here, by end of next week. The answer will be clear.

snowrider

austinjoe 发表于 2012-10-27 11:20 PM
Thank you for updating your wave count -- there are many other wavers hold th ...

Thanks for sharing your view.  My alternative count mirrors the downward move of this May.  It could happen again.  I will be very happy if it does happen because I don't have much stock holding now.