Perfect Wave - 2011-Q3

snowrider

08/27/2011

Comments are welcome!

hunting

看老大的图，EUR/USD盘整了4个月之后要给出方向，欧元涨，美元跌，推动SPX上涨，黄金短期回调，资金回流股票，有一点看不懂；USD/JPY对大盘有何指导意义？请老大指点，，谢谢

snowrider

hunting 发表于 2011-8-28 00:07
看老大的图，EUR/USD盘整了4个月之后要给出方向，欧元涨，美元跌，推动SPX上涨，黄金短期回调，资金回流股票 ...

" ... USD/JPY对大盘有何指导意义？ ..."

hunting - You know that all those four (SP, GC, EUR, JPY) are tradable.  I really don't relate them each other.  I treat them one by one.  It really does not matter if SP goes up or down while EUR goes up or down.  Keep in mind that anything can happen.

snowrider

Next week ... it will be 一翻兩瞪眼

snowrider

You see my preferred count, so you know what directions my positions are established in.  

snowrider

Question - How can I reply the "点评"?

From hunting ... "我想你短期看牛，中期看熊，，，，到明年变成大牛 ..."

hunting - If you are talking about SP, for now, I actually see this way:
短期看牛 (to 1260)，中期看牛 (to finish wave-[E] by taking out 1370)，到明年变成大熊 (super bearish with multiple years downtrend)

That is just my view as of now.  Things change.  If the wave structure changes, I'll change my view.

hunting

谢谢，以你的数法我画了一张图，不知道对不对，我不会数调整浪，有一点很难相信SPX今年还会出新高，

hunting

我的另一种数法，不知道有没有这种可能性，请老大指点，，

snowrider

hunting 发表于 2011-8-28 18:24
谢谢，以你的数法我画了一张图，不知道对不对，我不会数调整浪，有一点很难相信SPX今年还会出新高， ...

Very good!

With this scenario, I will rename [[D]] to [[V]].
After that next few years will be in a long term bear market.

snowrider

hunting 发表于 2011-8-28 18:27
我的另一种数法，不知道有没有这种可能性，请老大指点，，

For this one ... notice that wave-[II]'s size and timespan is not proportional to the wave degree it presents.  There is no definite way of counting waves, but it's just how I feel ... the wave-[II] is too small comparing to the wave-[IV].

For a bearish count on this market, I would relabel your [III] as [A], [IV] as [B], [V] as [C] (to complete [[D]]).  Then I'll relabel your [[II]].[C] as [[E]].[C] (to complete a higher degree [[[IV]]]).

Hope this help.

hunting

谢谢，看来我要多看两本数波浪的书才懂得怎么数，，，

snowrider

hunting 发表于 2011-8-28 19:34
谢谢，看来我要多看两本数波浪的书才懂得怎么数，，，

看書來回數遍
背它滾瓜爛熟

多看圖
熟讀唐詩三百首
不會作詩也能吟

Again, there are infintely many possible ways of counting waves.  There is no definite one.  It's really like an art work.  You will feel it and know it is good or not.

共勉之

COS

snowrider

hunting 发表于 2011-8-28 18:24
谢谢，以你的数法我画了一张图，不知道对不对，我不会数调整浪，有一点很难相信SPX今年还会出新高， ...

其實偶也不相信
但一切都是賭
機會來了 偶就賭了

snowrider

09/02/2011

Comments are welcome!









偶渡假至下週四
若有討論
或許晚上回覆

shoujie

回复 hunting 的帖子

这个看起来可能性高（跟俺想画的图一样，现在俺就免了吧）。。。。。。四目以待啦。。

suancai

我感觉47楼那个图可能性高

snowrider

I am back.
Hope everyone has made some money from this wild market move.

snowrider

suancai 发表于 2011-9-3 07:49
我感觉47楼那个图可能性高

英雄所見略同  :)

股海浪花

雪骑，welcome back。all those monthly chart are great。 你是。