灌水贴

jsl

如果没有negative shock, 大盘应该再向上推一下，然后有序回落。短期内如果有shock,全面下跌的可能性很大，包括commodity。 A股却可能独树一帜。

大泡泡

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-22 20:35 发表 【【JSL原创】】 我一直都是一个很猥琐的人。小时候身体不好，所以调戏别家姐姐妹妹的时候经常被护花使者打得鼻青脸肿，心中很是不平。一日无意中闻得附近养猪，杀猪，卖猪肉的老头是隐姓埋名的武林高手。几番犹豫， ...

顶！

这黒虎掏心还要多练。 出拳太早， 自损太大。

这护身甲不知是什么东西。 cash？

躲跑投也要多练习。 动作要加快。

jsl

Maybe time to long GLD and short USO

 

 

time to load GLD, SLV again

http://www.hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=11016&extra=page%3D1

oldfrog

呵呵。谢谢JSL老大教诲。
黑虎掏心，老青蛙用过，经常打在石头上。护甲也有，不过是个男式游泳衣，免不了大面积受伤，不过本钱倒是保住了。至于躲跑投的上乘功夫。还在练。只是穿着护甲跑不快。

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-22 20:35 发表 【【JSL原创】】 我一直都是一个很猥琐的人。小时候身体不好，所以调戏别家姐姐妹妹的时候经常被护花使者打得鼻青脸肿，心中很是不平。一日无意中闻得附近养猪，杀猪，卖猪 肉的老头是隐姓埋名的武林高手。几番犹豫， ...

jsl

后来在大街小巷斗殴无数，首先对这个躲字有了认识。会轻功的，不打，跟着，待他几口真气提不上了再试两招。重如泰山的，不打，偶尔用来练练拳。会暗器的，会下毒的，不打，防不胜防。躺在地上的不打，不好打，又有诈死的。

 

这跑吗，原以为只是打不过就跑的意思，后来知道也要跟着朋友跑，这样才能少挨揍，还可以混水摸鱼，顺手牵羊。

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-23 10:28 编辑 ]

jsl

今天又发现老青蛙不能打，你一拳出去，它却跳将上来，在你小臂上一弹，直奔面门而来，着实难以抵挡。

 

再说这黑虎掏心，乍学起来觉得简单，但开始用起来也是虎虎生风，可打四面八方，让旁观的唏嘘不已。然而打不到敌人，力气耗尽，滋味也不是好受的。渐渐的，也知道了这拳是要见了人才出。看人不看下身，俺有铁裤衩保护，只要敌人这腿踢的不高，俺就不怕。看人看头肩，不管他站着，倒着，歪着，扭着，只要看出个人样，就可以一拳打出去。这头不好打，目标小，经常一拳打空，敌人再来个移行换位，头变肘，纵有护甲也还是吃不消的。所以我打肩。这打肩就怕敌人的勾拳。肩是打到了，可敌人这一记勾拳，有下至上，击中下颚，可不是闹着玩的。为了对付勾拳，我经常虚晃两招，或念着‘躲’字诀，先让敌人三招。时间长了，自己也试着左直拳，右勾拳，效果满不错。再后来，对出拳的轻重，快慢也有更深的认识，至此，这一招黑虎掏心算是有了小成。

因着铁裤衩，很多拈花惹草的事情做起来不方便，也就做的少了。时间久了，竟然也有人开始称呼我为大侠。虽然愧不敢当，心里还是美滋滋的。

jsl

Aggressive sellers or shorters jumped in again before noon, but clearly they did not cover much towards the end, they are betting on the economic news on Thursday.

 

There are 3-4 more days to go if this cycle ends naturally. Coincidentally, that put us right near the FOMC meeting.

 

If the market is up tomorrow, it will create an M top. It will be hard to believe anything can be encouraging unfortunately. The only thing positive is a contrarian view that many people have shorted the market. Even if they don’t cover, there will be less sellers since nobody want to take too much risk ahead of the meeting.

 

If the market goes south tomorrow, depending on the severeness of the economic data, the market may start oscillation or start the first wave of droping.

 

Cobra

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-24 00:35 发表 Aggressive sellers or shorters jumped in again before noon, but clearly they did not cover much towards the end, they are betting on the economic news on Thursday.   There a ...

 

我觉得相反，现在做多的人比作空的人多。

jsl

原帖由 Cobra 于 2008-4-24 00:44 发表   我觉得相反，现在做多的人比作空的人多。

You are probably right that there are sill not much shorts around. But I definitly see the loss of confidence broadly, and I do believe that the morning sell orders are from shorts. I also treat the current pattern as a bear set up, the gap between the current position and the 200smv make people, including me, think twice about timing.

Thanks for your great daily update

 

jsl

some say, it's a sector rotation day. Hmm.., not quite, depending how you define it, I would rather call it a liquidation day. Clearly, people had been betting on long oil short market type of spread, today, they decide to take a rest and relax ahead of the FOMC meeting.

FigAFlower

Hot money has to cash out the gain before the bubble busts in commodities. People want cheap gas and cheap food for summer vacation.

jsl

今天摆场子，把式也练了，吆喝也喊了，就是一个膏药也没卖出去。世态炎凉啊！ 好，我就接着说书

 

想起梅花庄那一战，真是又惨烈，又幸运，又痛苦，又幸福。当时庄里混战一片，分不清哪是牛头帮哪是银熊会。我被左一肘，右一腿，打得东倒西歪。正准备提起精神，使出我的绝招黑虎掏心，人群忽然分开，闪出几位女子来，将我围住。定睛一瞧，乃是柔情似水的Brainteaser, 热情奔放的Johnny200, 练过玉女真经的Xiaobailong, 后面又有从买买提前来助阵的Coke和汤叉的老婆Saysay分别弹起 “寂寞销魂”“碧海潮生”两曲。我粗浅内力怎经得起这架势，登时血脉贲张，真气涣散，心理道，我命休矣！

jsl

 

正在这生死关头，心中灵光一闪，取出怀中师傅送的那块白布，蒙在眼上，用布角塞住双耳，那股强烈的猪油味也遮住了众女的袭袭香气，让我心神一凛，立时静下来。按胸中所记蛇大的九宫八卦图，将黑虎掏心一遍一遍的打出去。终于将黑虎掏心的九九八十一种变化使完，摘下白布，发现众美眉已是香汗淋漓，其他人已离去，只剩下远处传来秋大的几声冷笑。我心中暗自庆幸，总算保住小命，哪里还敢留恋众女子的娇态，仓皇之中逃去。

Cobra

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-24 23:32 发表   正在这生死关头，心中灵光一闪，取出怀中师傅送的那块白布，蒙在眼上，用布角塞住双耳，那股强烈的猪油味也遮住了众女的袭袭香气，让我心神一凛，立时静下来。按胸中所记蛇大的九宫八卦图，将黑虎掏心一遍一 ...

 

 

jsl

So what's going on in the market? More and more data pointing to the south are thrown into our face, while the market seems to be trying to find any possible silver linings as reasons to move north.

 

So what’s going on? Is it because  the illusional financial bounce and long expected commodity retreat have kept bears on their toes, or the better than expected job data together with not so bad earning have give the bulls some confidence?

 

So what’s going on? Some charts look positive earlier today, other charts say, not yet. Indeed, a stick pointing up is possible, but any sharp drop will make the whole thing really ugly.

 

So what’s going on! I think we are in a situation where downside bias meets upside risk. That means when we finally go through the uncertainties, the market may actually drop, odd, isn’t it!!!

 

Finally, we did see some light in durable goods orders, hope that is not just a firefly in the tunnel.

jsl

经过梅花庄一役，自觉内力太弱，定力不足。这时的我在江湖上已有不少朋友，就到处拜师访友，打听练内力的正宗法门。经过大半年的时间，虽有小获，但不成体统。一日正在家郁闷，恰逢隔壁老张前来拜访。老张是东街店铺的会计，偶尔就到我这来消磨时间。寒暄一阵，提起我这块心病，老张就说他有祖传的一部书，他爹传给他的时候说这书中有上乘内功心法。回去取来给我一看，明明是一本写得密密麻麻的账本。机不可失，将自己所在屋里，日夜攻读，终于破解到这内功心法的名字是“彩武宝表”

oldfrog

呵呵，原来巴菲特住你隔壁。失敬失敬

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-25 01:30 发表 经过梅花庄一役，自觉内力太弱，定力不足。这时的我在江湖上已有不少朋友，就到处拜师访友，打听练内力的正宗法门。经过大半年的时间，虽有小获，但不成体 统。一日正在家郁闷，恰逢隔壁老张前来拜访。老张是东街店铺 ...

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-4-25 03:16 发表   because pigs change direction following closely the latest market development, so they are neither bulls nor bears for a measurable (predefined) timeframe. nonetheless, this sentence c ...

Indeed, I felt somewhat uneasy inside. I can still smell the market direction short term, but it is becoming more and more difficult for my own trust. When my intuition tells me something different from what my analysis show me, I usually leave some margin for mistakes.

 

I also spend quite sometime to understand my own psychology, then following the game theory, I assume major market players thinking the same way which should lead to some distortion of my original anticipation.

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-25 17:46 发表 Indeed, I felt somewhat uneasy inside. I can still smell the market direction short term, but it is becoming more and more difficult for my own trust. When my intuition tells me something different ...

 

 I was feeling the same anxiety as everyone did these days. Then I launched my weapon, 发呆, and it helped to unload my pressure. Once I unload my pressure, I figured out that my deep worry is not because of the risk of my stock positions, it is because that I'm uncertain about the future outlook. Once I saw other's posts flooded this forum, I am relaxed. As you said, I think at this point, even the most experienced pros have no idea where the market will go. So why should I worry? They have put much more money under risk and they should have killed themselves if the were as worried as me. Moreover, I figured out that the market won't go anywhere simply because everybody is clueless. That's the underlying thought drove me to compose "A day of anxiety". Just try to remind myself, this is the typical time that tries man's soul, and you better stay cool. Cause if you jump, you jump off the cliff.

 

和大家共勉

FigAFlower

Both Bulls and Bears were killed today. Bro 发呆 is a real high hand