Bear's climax run is heating up.
Although $NYADV has positive divergence today, 678 is NOT the bottom. It won't hold for long. We will see 64x in days, pe ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-5 18:02
Bear's climax run is heating up.
Although $NYADV has positive divergence today, 678 is NOT the bottom. It won't hold for long. We will see 64x in days, perhaps in hours.
(1) If tomorrow another big drop, then the daily low of tomorrow is either the bottom or within 10 points of the bottom.
(2) If tomorrow Doji, then the bottom is still ahead to meet next week.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-5 18:02
527#bayliner1979
Bay Laoda, why do you compare the current situation with July 2008? The low for July 2008 is not multi-year low, but current level is 13 years low.
July 2008 is a slow-motion capitulation bear move, which is what the current market is.
I consider today's close is similar to 7/8/2008's close timing position right before the mid-term bottom.
527# bayliner1979
Bay Laoda, why do you compare the current situation with July 2008? The low for July 2008 is not multi-year low, but current level is 13 years low.
like2swing 发表于 2009-3-6 21:26
老蛇似乎觉得今天就是11/21/2008，mid-term bottom.
反正俺现在是delta neutral，防两边大动。
倾向于下周才见底，要么next Monday W bottom, or next Tuesday bottom at 650, 最迟 next Friday bottom at 630.
Change expectation a little.
Expect a Doji or small-bar spinning top tomorrow.
Then the gap down Wednesday morning is the short-term bottom (about 65x).
Then a rebound to 75x for OE.
Then another drop to 63x for mid-term bottom.
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-3-6 01:34 AM
美死我了。 No worry for my puts.
