SPX Notes 2009

newnewhand

thanks for sharing

hanayori

Thanks LaoDa! Do you suggest current month (I mean March) straddle? I worry a little bit about time decay and wonder if should play April straddle? Will your double/half estimate applies only to current month or most near term months will do? Thanks a lot!

(I guess your plan is a short term play, so maybe just hold for several days without much time decay? Pig market is bad for option holder.)

lite1067

One more thing:  $NYADV has doubled its positive divergence.
Typically huge rebound follows such positive divergence.
But in last October, more positive divergence points (5 totally) were needed to break the lower low curse.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-27 19:05

bay laoda, last Oct, the positive divergence on $NYADV was not as significantly as we are having now. In last Oct, $NYADV was nearly flat while broad market continued its plunging. Did I miss anything?

bayliner1979

It's strangle, not straddle.
You play straddle during a piggy market, not a huge up and down vomitting market.

Thanks LaoDa! Do you suggest current month (I mean March) straddle? I worry a little bit about time decay and wonder if should play April straddle? Will your double/half estimate applies only to curre ...
hanayori 发表于 2009-3-1 02:02

bayliner1979

I am expecting a 735->805->695 wave.
The 805 rebound is long awaited.  Let's see.

bay laoda, last Oct, the positive divergence on $NYADV was not as significantly as we are having now. In last Oct, $NYADV was nearly flat while broad market continued its plunging. Did I miss anyt ...
lite1067 发表于 2009-3-1 02:28

lite1067

I am expecting a 735->805->695 wave.
The 805 rebound is long awaited.  Let's see.


bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-1 03:12

好，记下了。就怕market不剧烈move，上下都行。

benmao

it's getting closer to 710, will bay laoda start boadload of long?

skitty

Bay Laoda, now future is printing 721 at midnight,  what will be next if 735 can't hold ?

[quote]I am expecting a 735->805->695 wave.
The 805 rebound is long awaited.  Let's see.

Baruch

Ding! Thanks!

bayliner1979

Confirmed bear climax run.  Remember the prediction that before 710 don't build long positions.
My target 700 is reached today.  Unfortunately, 700 is not the bottom:  $NYADV lower low, and lower closing price ahead.

Today is corresponding to either 11/19 or 11/20/2008.
Expect reaching mid-term bottom in this week.
Mid-term bottom is expected to be somewhere between 650 and 680.

Either there will be huge white bars in 2or3 trading days, or the bear's climax run is in the middle of the progress (thus continuous huge red bars).
Right now it is time to play strangle.   Expecting huge change in either direction.
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-27 19:05

ivymay99

450# bayliner1979 [/

thanks a lot.

buctusa

Scary...................

Diver

Confirmed bear climax run.  Remember the prediction that before 710 don't build long positions.
My target 700 is reached today.  Unfortunately, 700 is not the bottom:  $NYADV lower low, and lower clo ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-3-2 16:28

weigoodone01

小咪

450# bayliner1979


小猫咪好郁闷，我把它带走了啊 谢老大

开小差

450# bayliner1979 ding

benmao

cheesecake

Thanks bay laoda.

Taurus168

Thank you!

torontonian