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发表于 2010-6-4 12:11 PM
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I steal it from Sweettomato posted today:
ML BOA 的，今天出的
NYSE advance-decline line breaks uptrend line
The old adage “Sell in May and go away” proved true. Volatility returned, meaning
investors need patience again as the market corrects part of the 80% gain since
the March 2009 lows. Volume has been negative for weeks, but now the NYSE
advance-decline line, a measure of market breadth, is losing its uptrend line from
March 2009 (sidebar). The stocks only a/d line is still holding, but if these trends
deteriorate, it would be just another signal that equity markets may be in for a
deeper correction. Also keep an eye on the 150-day moving average, which is
beginning to flatten and roll over on the S&P 500; the 150-day exponential moving
average is already decelerating. We would be remiss if we did not report that the
point and figure chart for the S&P 500 has moved to a sell signal. Meanwhile,
short-term indicators are oversold and a rally is still possible to test S&P
resistance at 1100-1130. But the longer the market cannot respond to these
oversold signals, the more likely they are becoming bad oversold readings.
Leverage is back to September/October 2008 levels
Margin debt has increased as investors have become more confident in the US
equity market. On a month to month basis, March levels were up 5.4% and April
was up stronger at 6.3%. Dollar amounts reached $262bn in April. The last time
levels were this high was in September/October 2008. The risk is that in a deeper
correction margin calls hit the equity market.
Levels to watch
A close below 1084 on the S&P 500 points to filling the upside gap created on
May 27 between 1074 and 1068. Key support to watch remains 1044.50 – a close
below this level would indicate that a deeper correction is likely to test support
near 1000-950. The point and figure sell signal counts down to 920, but this level
would hold an important uptrend line on the point and figure chart. Resistance
remains 1100-1130. Our market outlook would improve if the S&P 500 can get
above 1150 (January 2010 highs) and hold this level.
US equity mutual fund outflow worst since 2009
TrimTabs weekly flows of US equity mutual funds – worst outflows since 2009
Source: TrimTabs Investment Research – www.Trimtabs.com
Support and resistance levels
Support Levels 1st Support 2nd Support
S&P 500 1050-1044.5 1000-950
DJIA 9835-9774 9680-9430
NASDAQ Comp 2200-2100 2040-2000
Resistance Levels 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance
S&P 500 1100-1130 1180-1185
DJIA 10300-10540 10950-11000
NASDAQ Comp 2270-2335 2450-2535 |
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