China Real Estate Looks Pretty Safe

wangbin

To tell the truth, why do you just sell these houses if you can get 50-30% discount? You know, to lock the profit is always the "right thing".

谢谢关心。我选择的区都是将来有前景的（比如说要通地铁、轻轨等），现在房价不高，而且通常我能拿到5- ...
dzyx 发表于 2010-8-21 20:45

kruger

This graph is misleading.

the ratio of mortgage loan to total credit means different to China and other countries.

you got to look at how many of Chinese did not have to get mortgage in their whole life.   The market in china just started probably 10 years ago.

I think there is indeed a bubble.

A better indicator may be the average mortgage to average income.  I believe this indicator is much higher in china than in other countries.  if this ratio is high, it means the mortgage is too expensive. It also means there is not much market for that mortgage.  This is where the bubble starts to appear.

shewinta

大家都是讨论吗，这么激动干吗？
各抒己见，各取所好，有何不可？

ppteam

自己的投资是自己的事，赚了是自己的，亏了也是自己的，有什么好斗气的.

kruger

I also wanted to say that starting about 5 years ago, a big portion of demand for Chinese housing market is from foreign investors like Louzhu, who had the cash to buy tens and hundreds of real estates.  Such speculation is wait for someone else to take the real estates at higher price. This indeed happened in the past few years, but a lot of them were changing hands between these foreign investors, who share the market view.  But if the final users of the real estates cannot afford to 接盘, the bubble will sooner or later burst.

dzyx

This graph is misleading.

the ratio of mortgage loan to total credit means different to China and ...
kruger 发表于 2010-8-21 21:46

那张图只是说中国的银行很稳健，即使楼价掉些也不会出现美国的情形。

我只是想share我的经验，这是买楼砍价的好时机。我的看法是基于我自己的调查。我没有推高楼价，也没那个能力。相反我起了蓄水池的作用，人们疯狂时我卖出，稳定市场。盖楼的不是我，是政府和地产商，我也没有定价权。

dzyx

To tell the truth, why do you just sell these houses if you can get 50-30% discount? You know, to lo ...
wangbin 发表于 2010-8-21 21:46

你以为这种discount好拿嘛？

kruger

Message very well received.

The graph means what you said above, but a better title for your post may be "China Banks Looks Pretty Safe Against Housing Market Turmoil".



回复 26# dzyx

dzyx

I also wanted to say that starting about 5 years ago, a big portion of demand for Chinese housing ma ...
kruger 发表于 2010-8-21 21:58

你低估了人们手里的钱。这几年国内印钱每年都增加17%以上，去年达到了28%。现在是加工资工潮，加完工资呢，买楼！

Cobra

我是好意share这些information。没想到换来的是如此的敌视。我从来没攻击过任何人。

麻烦Cobra把我的帐号 ...
dzyx 发表于 2010-8-21 21:18

    抱歉，才看到。可能有过激言论，我已经屏蔽掉了。还请原谅。HT欢迎发表不同见解。下次如有类似过激言行，你可以PM我啊。

kruger

There are two ways for income to catch housing price:

income growth and housing market crash.

the odds do not look good that the income growth is sufficiently strong...



回复 29# dzyx

shewinta

我不是TA派，没法评论图表，事实是这个世界已经充斥着泡沫，先是美国房地产，现在是美元，以后是什么，不知道，关键是在泡沫来临之际抓住之，在该泡沫快要破碎时，抓住下一个泡沫。。。高难度阿。
我倒是佩服楼主的能力，先声明我在国内没房子，也很同情高房价下的痛苦，这和本贴完全是两码事。
想买，呵呵，不过已经太贵了，没法出手了，算起来，还可以弄“套首套房“。大家一笑了之好了。

hillcrest

我是好意share这些information。没想到换来的是如此的敌视。我从来没攻击过任何人。

麻烦Cobra把我的帐号 ...
dzyx 发表于 2010-8-21 21:18

    这倒不至于，讨论问题吗

hillcrest

连任志强都服软了，可能这次是真的

任志强呼吁数百开发商：配合政府 赶紧降价
任志强劝开发商降价：“我都从了，你们也从了吧”

shewinta

回复  shoujie


呵呵，我不相信。没钱的人永远买不起，你让他们买得起，国家就得负债。目前大声叫的人 ...
dzyx 发表于 2010-8-21 17:57

完全同意楼主的见解。

ppteam

政委的大陆第一套房是2001年买的，二线城市，当时太便宜了，不买对不起党。
政委2003年在上海徐汇区和朋友一起搞了一层商家楼后弄出租，不错。总的来说是没有最高，只有更高。后来我就撤了。现在不会动大陆。美国倒不错，希望明后年价格继续下跌后在FL买套beach condo 之类的。

NumberRules

有时候，内幕的消息，高层的消息，专业的玩家，真不如农民。

2003年开春，北京二环一个楼盘开2000美元一方，2003年底，广州楼价刚到5000，全国专家学者轮着大嘴巴说海南危机再来，一大堆数据论证房价拐点，结果呢？让一群温州没读过书的农民把刚从欧洲手上换回来的皮鞋血汗钱买了过去，现在房价多少钱？

等这些专家高层专业玩家再跳进市场，开始唱好的时候，开卖的时机就到了。就跟Irving Fisher在1929才开始买股票一样。

shoujie

不要忘记，世界上从来没有永远上涨的股市，同样没有永远上涨的楼市，无论长周期的还是短周期的。。。

ppteam

回复 37# NumberRules

是啊。我还在念烟酒所时，这边NJ的一个中年同志，是GOOD DT TRADER，就在北京买了5-6套房，大约是1996-98的事。
说到这里，我又要BASH一下那些瞧不起DT的人。To me, they are bunch of people who don't have such ability to make money from day trade, or they don't understand how day traders make money, so they bash day traders.
The proper response is to give them a finger. 以前有些“出名”HT经常这样干。我非常瞧不起，就不点名了。

dzyx

多谢大家的讨论和好言相劝。