股市诊脉 8-4-2010 More bearish VIX bets

leftright

Diver

I guess so, too. I wonder if all the VIX Calls were buy-to-open or just the total volumes of buy and sell trading. Yesterday's VIX Sept 47.5 CALLs volume is not reflected in today's open interests. Only VIX Sept 65 CALLs volume is. And today's 50K VIX Sept 45 CALLs volume was actually dealt at a price lower than yesterday's. (yesterday's bid/ask price was $0.45/$0.55, today's bid/ask price is $0.45/$0.50 and 50K CALLs were dealt at $0.50. Moreover, after 50K CALLs traded, the bid/ask price is still $0.45/$0.50. That seems someone is more willing to offer as many as possible.)

Is it possible these VIX PUT bets are hedging of their long stock positions?
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-8-4 21:17

Fan8an

thanks

terranmn

Diver

I also think the market has already priced in a good NFP data for Friday.

More bearish VIX bets

50k VIX Sep $45 calls, 24k VXX Aug $22 calls. Big players are positioning f ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-4 20:24

ypm968

Is it possible these VIX PUT bets are hedging of their long stock positions?
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-8-4 16:17

    yes, vix is always a hedge tool.
VIX closed at 22.21. Hedging all the way to 45 expressed a serious bearish view.

xiaochong

队长，I may have a stupid question, but how do you know they are  buying not selling (50k VIX Sep $45 calls, 24k VXX Aug $22 calls).

yaobooyao

yes, vix is always a hedge tool.
VIX closed at 22.21. Hedging all the way to 45 expresse ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-4 21:45

If it's hedging for long positions,  yes,  the call at that high VIX reading is really seriously bearish.

abaqus

per VIX movement, we should see 1130 break out at least..

ypm968

Thank you very much.  

Have you closed all your long positions and opened short positions y ...
Diver 发表于 2010-8-4 16:27

    I closed 60% of my long position, and bought some VXX today.
The key to watch money flows is to spot divergence. Today market up on money outflows is a bearish sign. Big guys took some profits or began distribution.

Diver

That make sense. The action that big guys chose to hedge with VIX under 1130 instead of running away under 1130 means they did not give up the efforts to break out 1130.

per VIX movement, we should see 1130 break out at least..
abaqus 发表于 2010-8-4 21:53

Diver

Thank you very much.

Yes, I agree. They just started but not finished yet. So the negetive divergence may last for a while until we see the trend change. It will not change suddenly.

I closed 60% of my long position, and bought some VXX today.
The key to watch money flows ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-4 21:57

ypm968

队长，I may have a stupid question, but how do you know they are  buying not selling (50k VIX Sep $4 ...
xiaochong 发表于 2010-8-4 16:50

    I subscribe Option Monster. They provide these information.

ypm968

I guess so, too. I wonder if all the VIX Calls were buy-to-open or just the total volumes of buy and ...
Diver 发表于 2010-8-4 16:36

    The 50K VIX Sep 45 calls were placed right after market open today

H@T

ypm968

per VIX movement, we should see 1130 break out at least..
abaqus 发表于 2010-8-4 16:53

    Have you noticed that even though S&P is above last high 1120, VIX is still unable to close below last low.

Diver

Thank you very much for the info.

The 50K VIX Sep 45 calls were placed right after market open today
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-4 22:06

Diver

I subscribe Option Monster. They provide these information.
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-4 22:03

Diver

I think VIX has been in a deeply oversold status and is bottomed.

Have you noticed that even though S&P is above last high 1120, VIX is still unable to clos ...
ypm968 发表于 2010-8-4 22:17

xiaochong

为啥 today volume 和 OI 不符呢，谁可以解释这个呢？
45.00 VIX today volume 50,954 open interest 19,882