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发表于 2010-6-25 08:34 PM
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本帖最后由 AGA7d 于 2010-6-25 22:45 编辑
WMT is a rare stock that has very low beta on earnings (off by a few cents at most for many quarters), consistent revenue growth, earnings growth, dividend growth. Now with a PE about 12-13, how much down side can you expect?
The big MFs are selling WMT because it is too plain vanilla, appears lacking growth potential, and price appreciation. Fidelity etc like to chase high fliers (momentum stocks) like AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, GOOG etc. You may say they are not bad picks, but there are many other bad picks by Fidelity etc. That's why these big MFs consistently lag behind the vanilla SP index. If they don't chase high fliers and focus more on blue chips, I bet they will have a better return.
The big MFs cash level is quite low - so if they wanna continue buy MoMo stocks, they have to sell some holdings and the slow-moving WMT etc are the first choices to sell. However, as I said again and again, big MFs do not have many shares left. Fidelity's holding is down to 30 million shares from at least 300-400 million shares 6-7 years ago. WMT makes about 2% of S&P, but WMT is only ~0.4% in Fidelity's portfolio as of 03/31/210. Capital Research (American funds) had over 30 million shares in 2007, now it has only ~6 million, about 0.1% of its portfolio. If the big MFs index WMT like Vanguard, WMT would be $68 (17x 2010 earnings, given its single digit growth) instead of $49.
On the plus side, Buffet's Berkshire holds almost 40 million shares (bought mostly in 2008-2009). State Street added over 80 mln shares last year. Over the years, WMT bought back (retired) 400-500 mln shares. The new buyback plan will acquire another ~300 mln shares ($15 bln).
Therefore, despite the sell-off, I am sitting tight waiting for better days to come. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-6-25 07:30 PM
发表于 2010-6-25 08:04 PM
