我所信奉的奥地利经济学

waterwater

如果你问我外汇，可能我的把握会大一些...

关于股票市场，我仍然看空做空，如果你看过我周五画的那 ...
X!nG 发表于 2010-3-23 17:46

    Thank you very much.
     Dong 看空做空!

happyface

so cool.

yaobooyao

如果你问我外汇，可能我的把握会大一些...

关于股票市场，我仍然看空做空，如果你看过我周五画的那 ...
X!nG 发表于 2010-3-23 17:46

是啊，现在明显是trader 在作市， 股票不涨的时候就去pump 一下股指期货拉高一下趁机搞一波。 现在Day Trade 机器交易据说占超过大半数。

从上周五OE 那天开始，股票好像跟风股指期货上涨的动力明显减弱了， 股指Pump 一个大绿Bar，股票却不怎么动。

X!nG

是啊，现在明显是trader 在作市， 股票不涨的时候就去pump 一下股指期货拉高一下趁机搞一波。 现在Day  ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 19:04

但不管怎么说，股市熊熊最担心的还是发生了。

yaobooyao

但不管怎么说，股市熊熊最担心的还是发生了。
X!nG 发表于 2010-3-23 19:23

不少做空的Hedge Fund covered then jumped in short again...

X!nG

不少做空的Hedge Fund covered then jumped in short again...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 20:12

还好最近外汇方面都一切顺利。

你怎么样。

livefreakss

还好最近外汇方面都一切顺利。

你怎么样。
X!nG 发表于 2010-3-23 20:16

Still short gbp/eur?

revolver

Great! Another one converts to Austrian school.

yaobooyao

Can I join the FED party?

I am not from Austrian school, but I am standing on my own feet of ' Economi-physics',  which is trying to explain & measure the madness and emotional value of people and capital. And my name is Mr. DerivativeRocks.

livefreakss

Can I join the FED party?

I am not from Austrian school, but I am standing on my own feet of ' Ec ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 21:06

I like your name....

abaqus

不少做空的Hedge Fund covered then jumped in short again...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 20:12

   
Based on my reading of the bar charts, I got the same feeling,

1. more DT short activities of the past few days
2. DT shorts covered very quick, and it also help to push index inches high slowly, except today last hour
3. shorts work very hard to short every new high
.....

my question is, how you can tell the Hedge Fund short & covered story? any resource....
thanks,
...

yaobooyao

Based on my reading of the bar charts, I got the same feeling,

1. more DT short acti ...
abaqus 发表于 2010-3-23 21:16

Internal research data.  We have some morning brief stuff from some big houses.

Plus,  ask yoursefl, who can short mad like this?  Not the mutual funds, not the traders, it's the HF crazy basters.

abaqus

Internal research data.  We have some morning brief stuff from some big houses.

Plus,  ask yo ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 21:22

Then what's your view on the market? my old smartest professor?
still play DT these days?

Diffusion

Internal research data.  We have some morning brief stuff from some big houses.

Plus,  ask yo ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 21:22

    Thx for the info. I think the market is bound to drop. It only needs an excuse.

sooners

回复 1# X!nG


   

yaobooyao

回复 33# abaqus

My view is simple:

The market can go higher from here.

BUT

The buy interest is fading everyday.  Less and less discretionary buy from retail investors, no big buys from mutual funds, the buy momentum pumping the rally is purely technical (which also means program trading these days).

The market sell off will be somewhere in Q1 ER season, which will begin in April with AA again.  2 possibility but only 1 outcome- sell off, the difference is sell off on good ERs or sell off before bad news.

abaqus

回复  abaqus

My view is simple:

The market can go higher from here.

BUT

The buy inter ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 21:33

90% plus money from Mutual Funds are already in. Last time, 2007, when this happen, the market drop hard.
It might not be the same case at today. But at least, I think a correction is overdue. However, market can keep moving higher.

Thanks, Have a good one!

Diffusion

回复  abaqus

My view is simple:

The market can go higher from here.

BUT

The buy inter ...
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-3-23 21:33

Good analysis! But this will be a sad case for both bulls and bears. Bears will get burnt through Apr., and Bulls will have a sad Q2 afterwards.

Hopefully we'll see a meaningful correction till the mid of ER season, and good ER foster the bull market further.

Diffusion

90% plus money from Mutual Funds are already in. Last time, 2007, when this happen, the market ...
abaqus 发表于 2010-3-23 21:38

    Tomorrow might also be a boring day for me...

SAR

curious how can you tell? thanks!

Based on my reading of the bar charts, I got the same feeling,

1. more DT short acti ...
abaqus 发表于 2010-3-23 21:16