aone nov 18 作战计划

yaobooyao

AONE 的表现来看，严重怀疑庄家已经出逃， 在Oct 19 那周的次高点之前，已经出尽筹码， 随后利用Over allotment Option 低价cover 了在高点做空的仓位， 当时庄家的仓位Net 应该为负 。

此后的一路下跌，每个下跌周期平均5天，庄家利用空单单向打压股价向下，因为筹码多在散户手中，庄家利用小量的卖压就可以搞掉一批散户的筹码，所以日内如果当时你仔细观察过它的1分钟图上的走势， 基本上是一个5000 股一单的卖单加上心理威慑，就逼得一批散户的卖单涌出。庄家目前根本没有吸筹的意愿，属于放牛吃草的玩法。

GS、MS 这些投行，对AONE这种小盘概念股的IPO 策略都是快枪手政策， 眼前利益高于一切（因为风险高），不会尽职的做Market Price Stablization 的工作。 IPO 首日40M 的交易量（整个IPO 新股上市才25M 多， 不到30M），换手率非常饱和（头9天的换手率超过300％），一路上窜到28元， 在Oct 5日放量下跌，承销商大力做空应该就在这里开始的（他们有10％ 超额认购条款做后盾，cover 空仓根本无后顾之忧）。

做IPO 新股最忌追高和在大的价格跨度内average down， 两种做法的风险都比较大。在未来AONE的成交量没有明显放大并伴随股价走出下跌趋势的迹象之前（庄家重新回巢），不宜增加筹码，如果已经有的筹码套得比较深（但是又不占你的资金比重太大），千万别想着Average down 摊低均价，不然如果股价仍无起色的话，持股更被动。

我是18.7 进， ER前两天内17.05 止损离场的， 只买了200股。未来，如果AONE 基本面方面有起色，并且股价走出了无量阴跌趋势（最差搞个双底形态）之后，再考虑是否再进场。

以上观点纯属个人意见，仅供参考。

Diffusion

同意。也贴一点个人观点支持一下，在没有看到底部有横潘之前，最好别碰。

joep

22# Diffusion


why not short it if you believe it is going down?

Diffusion

22# Diffusion


why not short it if you believe it is going down?
joep 发表于 2009-11-21 18:48

because i don't know how far it will drop.

joep

24# Diffusion


My point is that if you trade stocks solely based on TA, there is no difference between AONE and any other stocks. If you are confident it is going down/up, you short/long it and make money. Even if you are confident it will stay unchanged, you sell options and still make money. Looks to me most people on this board are TA only but they somehow treat AONE differently.

conkers

Diffusion

24# Diffusion


My point is that if you trade stocks solely based on TA, there is no difference between AONE and any other stocks. If you are confident it is going down/up, you short/long it and make money. Even if you are confident it will stay unchanged, you sell options and still make money. Looks to me most people on this board are TA only but they somehow treat AONE differently.
joep 发表于 2009-11-21 19:26

I was occupied by something personal. Sorry for the late reply.

I'm not sure whether I fully understood what you were trying to say. Personally I think AONE is very close to a bottom, and I'm waiting for the price action to confirm my prediction. Once confirmed, I'll start to long. However, there is also non-trivial probability that it will breach important support and dive much lower. So it is not about my confidence, it is about whether the market verifies my confidence. Before that, I'll stay on the sideline. Furthermore, even the market confirmed my prediction, there is still a second consideration, the risk/reward ratio. If I'm sure the price will rise, and market also confirms my view, it still could be the case that major upside is already been taken. Should I jump in and long the stock? I guess no. When the rally approaches to the end, bulls are tired and cannot sustain bear's attack, meaning the risk/reward ratio is not good and better no touch. That's why I think AONE may still drop but I'm not going to short it at this moment.

AONE is attractive because it has good potential. Some investors believe when you buy stock, you buy its potential. I think this is very true. But as a retail investor like me, I don't have the (inside) information and expertise to fully gauge AONE's potential. There are many information on the media, but I cannot tell, from my limited knowledge, whether it's for real or from wishful thinking. So I'd better just stick with TA.

Hopefully this clarify myself. Thanks.

joep

27# Diffusion


Thank you!

zhishun

22# Diffusion


why not short it if you believe it is going down?
joep 发表于 2009-11-21 18:48

market never has anything sure..........
always about possibility and risk and reward...........
it is simply not worth to short now or buy now.........

ideall

大部队大反攻了. haha

buctusa

unidodo

silverado

解放军来噢