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发表于 2009-9-17 08:21 AM
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This is the fifth time we've seen more than 30% bearish and 0% bullish since the March low. After all four of the others, the market formed a short-term peak within a day. The S&P 500's return over the following week averaged -1.9% with an average maximum loss of -4.4% and average maximum gain of only +0.7%. The dates were May 6th, June 1st, June 11th and August 7th.
Going back to 2000, there were only four other days that had this kind of setup. Those were 8/03/2000, 08/24/2000, 06/05/2001 and 03/27/2002. Except for the first date, they were all at or very near a precipice before a major leg down in stocks. |
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