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发表于 2009-8-17 08:03 AM
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The S&P was earlier indicated to gap lower by more than -2%, the first time we'd seen a gap down that large since March 30th. When the S&P futures have opened -1.5% or lower on a Monday, then they managed to close higher than the open only 40% of the time (8 out of 20 occurrences), with an average return of -1.6%. When Friday was also down, then Monday's win rate dropped to 36%, so obviously there weren't a lot of times we saw an immediate rebound.
However, buying the close on Monday and holding through Wednesday's close led to 75% winning trades anytime Monday gapped down -1.5% or more, and of those 11 times that Friday also closed negatively, then buying Monday's close and holding for two days led to 91% winners with an average return of +3.6%. |
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