08/13/2009 白天灌水

mtlu2

15# Cobra

Cobra

Weekly jobless claims rose by +4k to 558k, which wasn’t
what economists expected. They thought claims would drop
by -5k…they did not. But the shocker to many – not to us –
was that the Retail Sales figure were expected to have rise
by +0.8%, while if you subtract out autos…then the gain
should have been +0.1%. The figures were much worse;
the headline figure showed a decline of -0.1%, and exautos
it came out -0.6%. The economist didn’t even get the
sign right, and obviously they were much more optimistic
than the many walking down Main Street. We’ve spoken at
length about the challenges to the consumer; and this
simply bears out our thoughts. Our concern: the incoming
economic figures may be worse than expected and may
level off in what is the “new normal” – a normal where growth
vacillates between negative and positive.
What we found more than interesting is that the CNBC
commentators were truly drawn back in the poor Retail
Sales figures, and were at a loss for words as to why this
could have come about. The S&P futures dropped -5 points
to show only a +7 point gain. This just goes to show that
the fundamentals don’t matter right now; and that is a
dangerous proposition for later. We remember in October-
2007 when the “sub-prime issue” was supposed to be
contained…and wasn’t. If we see further figures like this
one today…then the stock market adjustment will be a bit
larger than anyone expects.

palm

morning

trueself

1# Cobra


thanks laoda

apollochil

morning

tianshi1013

morning

金牛银熊

靠，都身先士卒的赤膊上阵了。。。。。。
又不是关键时刻。。。至于吗？。。。。。。
:lol

Cobra

 

When Price, Time and Cycles meet, they give a 90-95% chance of an important Change in Trend (CIT).

8/13-17/09 should be an important swing High. Here is why.

Price: There are 3 Price targets. The broken wedge TL Resistances (back-kiss) on 8/13 are at 1020 and 1028-32 SPX, the latter is also Fibonacci Resistance. Major Resistance at 1053.50-1055.50 SPX, which are 70.7% and 50% retraces.

Time: The next thing I look at are my proprietary CIT Timing points. I have found over the years that they are only a few timing methods that actually work precisely enough to be useful. Most of the daily CITs that I use are often exact to the day, although at times, they could be off by 1 Trading Day. There are 2 CIT Times, one is Thursday, 8/13 and a double "hit" on Monday 8/17. Furthermore, there is a reliable Astro-based CITs that are due on Friday 8/14: 8/14 is a Sun opposite Jupiter and the Midpoint of Jupiter Retrograde and Jupiter Direct.

Cycles: There is a long term fixed 8/16 week Cycle due this week and we have rallied into it. I have already discussed the proprietary Master Cycle (MC) that suggests we make a Major 8/13 High and 8/17 Highs of the Month. My conclusion can only be that we are making a Major High in the next couple of days due to the confluence of Price, Time and Cycles.

This will be my last post for quite a while as I am already supposed to be on vacation.

Please note: This blog is best viewed using FireFox, the archives and much more (on the leftside) are not showing in other browsers.

My Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email Questions to: timeandcycles@gmail.com

slp

target1

Thank you, cobra!

Cobra

开在昨天的range以内，因此应该会fill gap。

winwise

22810
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-13 13:08

这玩意一向都有点用

jzj

trueself

22811
 
When Price, Time and Cycles meet, they give a 90-95% chance of an important Change in Trend (CIT).

8/13-17/09 should be an important swing High. Here is why.

Price: There are 3 P ...
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-13 09:21

顶起来

trueself

开在昨天的range以内，因此应该会fill gap。

22812
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-13 09:23

好紧张哦
靠，还真是紧张

yoy_158

31# Cobra

好像有点不对啊。是不是牛魔王昨晚过多了？

天真的冷酷

trin is 0.32,   extreme bearish

happylux

开在昨天的range以内，因此应该会fill gap。

22812
Cobra 发表于 2009-8-13 08:23 AM

US bad news offset Europe Good news. Haha..

happylux

DOW red.

happylux

All red. Gap close as LaoDa expected.