Something about FED Day:
The market has typically done fairly well on days the FOMC has a scheduled rate announcement, especially if the S&P declined the day prior. If the S&P lost 0.5% or more, then the day of the meeting was up 65% of the time, including 9 of the last 10 instances.
Like we always discuss, however, that strength didn't often last. Over the next couple of days after the meeting, the S&P was positive only 35% of the time, and the last 8 were all negative. I could find no particular pattern with August FOMC meetings.
The typical pattern is for a drift higher into the announcement, then a couple of violent whipsaws afterwards before a more trending move into the close. If the move is large, then we've usually seen a counter-move over the subsequent couple of days. |