胡言乱语话大盘

firecs

V good discussion.  The more the better.

Roubini

Well,  just water for fun.


老兄这个解释很有些牵强：美元很久以来都是经济消息不好时涨，经济消息好时跌；如果经济好，人家海外资金会像傻瓜似的去买3.5%的国库券吗？


Maintaining dollar strength means using dollar as the only/main settlement currency on international trade, so everyone have to buy it as reserve. On currency exchange, the value of dollar fluctuate against different currencies daily, theoretically strong economy, dollar value up (economics 101), but there could be time lag.

Strength of dollar is first in the eye of the beholder, can be maintain either by superior military power or real economy strength. Value of dollar is related to the relative economy strength.

Treasury bond come with a coupon rate, which is expected long term inflation rate plus some premium. If economy is good, a healthy inflation around 2% would be expected, so the coupon will be higher. What’s really matter to the investor is the bond yield, not coupon, it’s a matter of discount cash flow calculation. Say in the recent 30yr treasury auction, coupon is 4.25, but yield is 4.303, which means investor pay less than 1000 face value for the bond.

Some agencies/individuals have to buy the treasury, etc.
--- Central banks for reserve
--- High net worth individual for asset allocation
--- Speculator for covering their short position on secondary market


“how about keep constant fluctuation around 900?'

但您这个想法还是值得参考的。

This is only an assumption (same as yours), but this one has minimum damage to O8. Market going up now is not real, going down people will ask for 2nd stimulus package, which come with high political cost and hurt many. Stay at some range then crossing finger, hoping for a real recovery on 3rd quarter is the best scenario.



20# dividend_growth

ByStander

1# Roubini

政府为什么要着急，SPX三月份以来拣回来了一半的损失，
而且是到目前为止，拣回来的还没有超过30%的回调
VIX稳定到30左右了，市场几乎是没有恐慌了
要是这也要OBAMA 着急的话，那他要天天上吊了
keesa 发表于 2009-7-8 20:07

如果他天天上吊的话,那他就是世界第一牛人了