本帖最后由 随机行走 于 2009-6-4 23:19 编辑
Oil Futures Running Way Ahead of Demand
Jim Cramer
Do I buy the Goldman Sachs call that oil's going to $85 this year and $95 next? I would have if there weren't such a huge short squeeze going on in the oil pits. I would if the oil futures were "deep" instead of easily manipulated. I would if there were higher margin requirements.
But you know what? These futures I am convinced absolutely have almost nothing to do with worldwide demand. When oil went to $140 - heck, when natural gas went to $14 -- these was nowhere near the demand for either that the futures were indicating. In fact, I think it is worse: The world is still awash with oil, and we know from Transocean(RIG Quote) that virtually no big projects were canceled. There's oil coming on stream all of the time. Plus natural gas. The stuff can't get out of its own way. My friend and colleague on RealMoney.com, Bert Dohmen, tells me that the U.S. Natural Gas ETF(UNG Quote) is way overvalued, and I am not disagreeing with the man who called the selloff in natural gas to
a T last year. He's way too good.
Does it mean you should sell Transocean and Schlumberger(SLB Quote) or Exxon Mobil(XOM Quote) or Occidental(OXY Quote) or the ones that I own for Action Alerts PLUS?
Nope. But the Goldman call? Technical to me, not fundamental; that's what triggered
today's rally. |
狗仔卡
发表于 2009-6-4 08:02 PM
