牛牛小心

cartier

逍遥山人

19# q13117

大哥，麻烦看帖看仔细一些。我指的是2001年中的一段中期走势的筑顶阶段与这一段时间的大盘走势有类似的地方，并没有把整个熊市都拉来相比。

嗨，晕啊。

Fan8an

ultimate

逍遥山人

10# yingying

我相信今天就已经轧得一批熊心胆俱裂了。

另外，我有点奇怪，你为什么相信大盘一定会到950，有何凭据？或者阁下能掐会算。

q13117

>>> 但是，如果你们中有人经历过2000年---2002年的大熊市，就应该记得在2001年中的一段中期下跌走势>>> （那段中期走势以911事件为最后一击落底）的筑顶过程与最近这一段时间大盘的走势非常相似。

What exact time frame are you refering to ? 03/2001 ~ 05/2001 (up)? 05/2001 ~ 09/2001 (down)?

Persistance

谢谢提醒!  I don't think MMs will go to 950.  They just want some space and time to unload.  They can directly pull to 950.  However, that's huge risk of suicide.

阿丙

我觉得现在下结论早了点,MACD背离价格时段还有些嫌短.但要是比较起来,我同意楼主,现在熊面可能性要大一些.能观望则观望,实在忍不住,我情愿试空不试多.

逍遥山人

26# q13117

好像是05/2001~09/2001的那一段走势。不过只有四个多月吗？在我印象中那一波好像特别长。以纳指为例，我记得单单做顶就搞了一个多两个月，击穿颈线之后，反抽时居然又搞出一个小双顶，然后再打穿小双顶的颈线，又反抽，来来回回折腾得人精疲力竭。

逍遥山人

18# gege88

抱歉，我尝试过上传图片，但是实在对电脑不精通，搞了很久还搞不定，只好放弃。

penguin

long10

我倒觉得现在和2003年3月后的走势很像，无论从基本面上，市场心理上，还是技术上。

q13117

>>> 好像是05/2001~09/2001的那一段走势

This wave was very impressive to me. I was crazy to escape from NASDAQ at 2187 in 02/2001 and took a long break for 02/2001 ~ 05/2001. Then I first started to short with one of my friends from 05/2001 through 09/2001. Both of us only did short trading once a month at OE week. We were lucky to earn some from each trading because the market was keeping down (not forming of top) from May high 2300+  ~ Sepetember low 1387. It looked like I had no same feeling as yours - 在我印象中那一波好像特别长.  In 10/2001, the market was rounded and lost a little from shorting BRCD (short at 12.8x  and covered at 20.00).

Probably I had no TA sense at that time  and I did trading only OE week, so I had no same feeling as yours (筑顶过程).

I just feel the time frame after 03/09/2009 is totally different that from 05/2001 ~ 09/2001 (not 筑顶过程 - down from 2300+ to 1387). Right now is up channel whereas 05/2001 ~ 09/2001 was in down channel. Right now is the second phase of big bear market whereas 05/2001 ~ 09/2001 was still in first phase of big bear market.  Both are not comparable.

q13117

Sorry for typo.

>>> In 10/2001, the market was rounded and lost a little from shorting BRCD (short at 12.8x  and covered at 20.00).

In 10/2001, the market was rebound and I lost a little from shorting BRCD (short at 12.8x  and covered at 20.00).

coexist

严重同意. MM烈害, 大家小心

CoolMax

为什么要抢跑。陷自己于被动局面。

在牛牛小心之前，该熊熊先小心吧！

catbaby

acura

smartll

good point....top is forming....

whzdf