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楼主 |
发表于 2009-5-28 02:43 AM
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从雅虎上看到的消息，貌似高潮在7月或9月。但是也有风险，比如CEO被干掉....
* End-of-Review meeting ... June 2nd.
* DSCO receives the "Minutes" of that meeting ... range of June 23rd thru July 2nd.
* DSCO provides the "Update" PR ... range of June 30th thru July 16th ... this is "the first event" most will be waiting for, and planning their Trading around ... this "update" PR could be notification that DSCO has re-submitted to the FDA (similar to VNDA, after the FDA told them they needed a new clinical trial; VNDA responded by resubmitting within 30 days of their End-of-Review meeiting), which would make the "class decision" the next event, and which would occur approximately 2 weeks later (note that DSCO's last class decision was a whole week late).
* FDA "class decision" announcement ... range of mid/late July (assumes DSCO re-submitted, as described above) ... the lead-up to this event will cause DSCO to spike considerably ... $3/share +- $0.20/share is my current best guess, but could be as high as $4/share (and yes, I'm taking into account DNDN, VNDA, CTIC, MELA, HEB, MAPP, ANPI, etc., as well as what the sector sentiment was leading-up to the last class decision).
* Next FDA PDUFA date ... early/mid Sept if a Class 1 review, or early/mid Jan 2010 if a Class 2 review ... if Class 1, and then Approval in early/mid Sept, DSCO will definitely hit "at least" $9/share (stabilized price; NOT the overshoot), if the sector sentiment doesn't change much, and the company doesn't dilute the stock much between now and then.
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Wildcard #1: Surfaxin LS is a BIGGIE, and any positive news towards the clinical trial for this drug candidate could "easily" bump the stock by $1/share or more ... a Surfaxin LS trial would be extremely quick, in comparison to traditional biotech trials (most of the relevant analysis occurs within the first two months from birth).
Wildcard #2: If DSCO releases news that the CEO has been ousted, all bets are off ... the stock will spike by "at least" 50%-100% from where ever it is currently trading.
Disclosure: Long DSCO, & holding 28K shares. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2009-5-24 09:45 AM
