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楼主: elme

清醒着是痛苦的...今天第二贴,超过额度了,但不是灌水。

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发表于 2009-5-8 04:36 PM | 显示全部楼层


糊涂好!难得糊涂!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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发表于 2009-5-8 04:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
Seems to me  LZ think the investors who bought these banks' seconaries at today's highe price are all naive and stupid.

It's the bear like LZ need to wake up.
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发表于 2009-5-8 05:06 PM | 显示全部楼层
stress test result is like 皇帝的新衣.
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发表于 2009-5-8 05:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
真正的TRADER不预测市场, 也不解释市场, 只是跟着走!
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发表于 2009-5-8 05:39 PM | 显示全部楼层
好文!已收藏。谢谢!
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发表于 2009-5-8 05:55 PM | 显示全部楼层
我不要清醒!
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发表于 2009-5-8 06:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
俺清醒着,所以俺痛苦着。。。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-8 06:50 PM | 显示全部楼层
22# frankyV


Disclosure: I don't have any position in Financial stocks as of day, no matter long or short. I am just thinking the market probably need a pull back to consolidate its unprecedented rally, especially for financial sector.  And I want to balance the bullish and bearish tones in HT a little bit.
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发表于 2009-5-8 07:48 PM | 显示全部楼层
这一贴乃一深水炸弹,将我激出水面,潜水状态从此结束。 Elme一席话令人醍醐灌顶!看来HT里也有像Nouriel Roubini, Meredith Whitney 一样的明白人。 顺便也啰嗦几句。有人注意到BAC 2Q09 ER 的date? – turns out it's as late as August 31!!! (http://www.marketwatch.com/tools ... sdaily.asp?symb=bac). My gut feeling is BAC is dying. 因为即便像C这般困难的孩子,也都老老实实地在7/13 号报账. 只要想一想BAC下面的乱摊子, Countrywide / Merrill Lynch / CREM & Credit Card default, 我相信if there are any big US banks heading for extinction, BAC一定会是第一个被肢解的!相反C却有可能会苟延残喘下去,为什么?原因有二: 1. C的问题都摆在明处,没有藏着掖着的;BAC虽然其实中干了,看起来却还挺外强的,毕竟它的祖上曾经也算是大户人家; 2. C是老实孩子,阿三从来都是第一个站出来响应家长的倡议。如此说来他还是蛮有功的哈。BAC却仗着自己曾经对革命有功,公开揭家长的短,accused家长曾要挟他,你如果是家长你会喜欢这样不听话的孩子吗? 熊熊们,想想当年John Paulson 同花街对赌房市泡沫之初,压力大的不得不每天在中央公园狂跑两小时的情景。如果你现在受不了啦,周末就跑步减压吧。
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发表于 2009-5-8 08:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pt6 于 2009-5-8 22:01 编辑

人太聰明了 也 不行。聰明程度如果大大超過了MM的話,最簡單的反應就是干啥都搶跑, 而且搶的沒譜。喝點糊涂湯,爭取把聰明程度降到與MM接近的水平。還有就是不要操心自己不該管的事。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-8 09:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
这一贴乃一深水炸弹,将我激出水面,潜水状态从此结束。

Elme一席话令人醍醐灌顶!看来HT里也有像Nouriel Roubini, Meredith Whitney 一样的明白人。

顺便也啰嗦几句。有人注意到BAC 2Q09 ER 的date? – turns ...
bianli85 发表于 2009-5-8 20:48

bianli兄,其实我本非象Roubini和Whitney这样的人,股票操作方面也是小青蛙级的水平,而且不久前还LONG了一次BAC,现在只是旁观。但是觉得越来越不靠谱了,把一些东西说出来的想法越来越强烈而已。
谢谢你把第一次献给了我,回赠:市场疯狂的时候,你不能跟着疯狂,因为市场永远没有错,犯错的只有你我。
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发表于 2009-5-8 09:49 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 mtlu2 于 2009-5-8 23:05 编辑

顶,

同痛苦,黑老大上台一百天,勾结狗剩八肥一起逼空,熊弟们死的死,残的残,还有不少被五花大绑扒光游街.
不知道这一战soros怎么样,G7后就没听到他说话了。再来回顾他的话:

经济史是一 部基于假象和谎言的连续剧,经济史的演绎从不基于真实的剧本,但它铺平了累积巨额财
富 的道路。做法就是认清其假象,投入其中,在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏

还有Jesse Livermore的话:

市场走向和你之期待相反的时候,你希望每天都是最后一天,你的小亏最终成为大亏。市场走向和
你之期待相同的时候,你恐惧市场明天会转向,你过早离场。希望使你多亏了钱, 恐惧使你少赚了钱。
然而这希望和恐惧都是人的正常天性。一位成功的炒手必须时时和人类 这根深蒂固的天性搏斗。在希望
的时候,他必须恐惧,在恐惧的时候,他必须希望。”
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发表于 2009-5-8 10:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-5-8 10:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
顶,

同痛苦,黑老大上台一百天,勾结狗剩八肥一起逼空,熊弟们死的死,残的残,还有不少被五花大绑扒光游街.
不知道这一战soros怎么样,G7后就没听到他说话了。再来回顾他的话:

经济史是一 部基于假象和谎言 ...
mtlu2 发表于 2009-5-8 22:49

mtlu2, here is an article to make you feel better. BTW, I like the T-back in your avatar, hope it will grow to be a pair of boxer in no time.

At least half of the banks pushed back, according to people with direct knowledge of the process. Some argued the Fed was underestimating the banks' ability to cover anticipated losses with revenue growth and aggressive cost-cutting. Others urged regulators to give them more credit for pending transactions that would thicken their capital cushions.

At times, frustrations boiled over. Negotiations with Wells Fargo, where Chairman Richard Kovacevich had publicly derided the stress tests as "asinine," were particularly heated, according to people familiar with the matter. Government officials worried San Francisco-based Wells might file a lawsuit contesting the Fed's findings.

The Fed ultimately accepted some of the banks' pleas, but rejected others. Shortly before the test results were unveiled Thursday, the capital shortfalls at some banks shrank, in some cases dramatically, according to people familiar with the matter.

Bank of America's final gap was $33.9 billion, down from an earlier estimate of more than $50 billion, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

A Bank of America spokesman wouldn't comment on how much the previous gap was reduced, though he said it resulted from an adjustment for first-quarter results and errors made by regulators in their analysis. "It wasn't lobbying," he said.

Wells Fargo's capital hole shrank to $13.7 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. Before adjusting for first-quarter results and other factors, the figure was $17.3 billion, according to a federal document.

"In the end we agreed with the number. We didn't necessarily like the number," said Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Howard Atkins. He said the company was particularly unhappy with the Fed's assumptions about Wells Fargo's revenue outlook.

At Fifth Third Bancorp, the Fed was preparing to tell the Cincinnati-based bank to find $2.6 billion in capital, but the final tally dropped to $1.1 billion. Fifth Third said the decline stemmed in part from regulators giving it credit for selling a part of a business line.

Citigroup's capital shortfall was initially pegged at roughly $35 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. The ultimate number was $5.5 billion. Executives persuaded the Fed to include the future capital-boosting impacts of pending transactions.

Stress Test: Complete Coverage
Wells, Morgan Stanley Quickly Raise $11 BillionWSJ.com/Finance: More stress test newsVote and Discuss
Do the stress test results paint an accurate picture of the financial industry? Weigh in at WSJ.com/CommunitySunTrust Banks Inc. also persuaded the Fed to significantly reduce the size of its estimated capital gap to $2.2 billion, after identifying mathematical errors in the Fed's earlier calculations, according to a person familiar with the matter.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc., saw a capital hole materialize at the last minute. As recently as Wednesday, PNC executives were under the impression they wouldn't need to find any new capital, according to people familiar with the matter. Thursday morning, the Fed informed PNC that it had a $600 million shortfall.

Regulators said other banks also were told they needed more capital than initially projected.
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发表于 2009-5-8 10:56 PM | 显示全部楼层
难得糊涂
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发表于 2009-5-8 10:59 PM | 显示全部楼层
不灌白不灌,灌了也白灌,周末灌水。。。。
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发表于 2009-5-8 11:06 PM | 显示全部楼层

哈哈哈, 好幽默, 顶!!!
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发表于 2009-5-8 11:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
挺好!
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发表于 2009-5-8 11:45 PM | 显示全部楼层
写得好啊,条理想象都好。已经加入收藏。
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发表于 2009-5-9 12:15 AM | 显示全部楼层
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