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发表于 2009-4-17 10:18 PM
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To #19 gdtrader:
Totally agree with you.
Not only see VIX, but also see volume, daily volume during 10~20 days PLUS other TA indicators.
Here is my volume analysis on 03/14/09 in http://www.hutong9.com/viewthrea ... amp;extra=page%3D1. I do not know why so many guys in Hutong9 did not see the volume changes since 02/20/09, especially JPM's volumes since 02/20/09 then catch MMs' pace.
To: #3 LaoDa
>>>I do not agree with you this time. Last Novemebr is a mid-term bottom which has held for >>>several month and had a huge volume at 11/21. This one, we did not even see any >>>panic. No panic, no bottom! Volume! Volume! Volume! Only volume tell the truth!
From my note everyday, since 02/20/09 average daily volume among 16 trading days is highest. (7.6~8.0 billion - 4 days, 8.0+ ~ 9.0 billion - 9 days, 9.4+ ~ 10.00 billion - 3 days). However, since 11/17/08 OE week through 12/10/08 average daily volume among 16.5 days is not too high. Daily volume on 11/20/08 was 10.275 billion and daily volume on 11/21/08 was 9.497 billion as well as daily volume on 11/24/08 was 8.756 billion. Let's see detail - 3.0+ ~ 7.6 billion - 12 days (11/28/08 half day), 8.0+ ~ 9.0 billion - 1 day, 9.4+ ~ 10.00 billion - 1 day, 10.00+ billion - 1 day. You can see only huge volumes above 8.0 billion since 11/21/08 were three days whereas recently huge volumes above 8.0 billion since 02/20/09 were 12 days. First time three-day huge volumes resulted in panic. This time 12-day huge volumes does not result in the panic which you refer to. But they can tell you truth. I guess MMs are building positions. FYI - Among JPM's trading volumes since 02/20/09 within 16 days, 14 days were 100+ million, 1 day was 85.6+ million and 1 day was 94.98 million; In January bottom, JPM's daily volumes above 100 million were 5 days; In 11/ 21/08 bottom, JPM's daily volumes above 100 million were 4 days. Brother, what conclusion do you get from these statistics? Just my thoughts... |
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