Market好像已经失效了，可以这么说么？

Poo

原帖由 polopolo 于 2008-10-9 16:35 发表 Financials will be very very different coming out of this disaster. We will be looking at (potentially) 1. Govts hold majority of banks worldwide. Anyone think JPM does not need a few 10Bs? BAC？ D ...

I think you are right here!

happypuppy

Stock market is an issue but not as big as job... I am very worried that many of us are going to lose our jobs ... Anyone worried about that besides me? I am going to take out all my cash and store them in a safe deposit box and stock up food, it's going to be a long winter... It is sad to see a nation destroyed itself. :(9): :(9): :(9): All I wanted was a peaceful environment and a job... Those damn greedy people ruined the world!

xiaobailong

原帖由 ns5000 于 2008-10-9 17:16 发表 哪个情形算正常都无所谓。可以肯定的是，银行业的现状会被彻底改变。由此会导致华尔街被彻底改变，包括游戏规则和内在机制。这可能导致大盘在以后的几十年内再无新高。

前些年大家一直说中国的世界工厂角色不好，不健康。其实现在看看，中国的创新和模仿进步最快的，就是工业界。而金融行业起步比较慢，相对比较保守。　幸亏这样，躲过了一劫啊。　　事实上，中国现在的行业结构特征，才是健康的，是底部大上面小的稳定模式。而美国的头重脚轻的行业模式，是不健康的，倒三角，终有倒下来的时候。

xiaobailong

原帖由 happypuppy 于 2008-10-9 17:24 发表 Stock market is an issue but not as big as job... I am very worried that many of us are going to lose our jobs ... Anyone worried about that besides me? I am going to take out all my cash and stor ...

invest4long

没有失效，完全正常。

 

人人感到恐慌，仿佛世界末日，熊市就快结束了。

那几个没怎么跌的道指成份股再跌1周，市场差不多到底了，可以分批买进了。

 

大概十月最后那一周的样子。

[ 本帖最后由 invest4long 于 2008-10-9 17:28 编辑 ]

ILoveRice

这才是我害怕的。任何一个行业，资金运作不活跃，也就没什么油水了。 大家一五一十地拿着报表说话，没有expectation, 没有optimistical thinking, 不是要回到没有股市的年代？要知道，股票可以trade or invest 的实质就是对未来期望值的betting，发行股票的目的就是融资，是把社会闲散资金聚集起来发展有钱途的事业。本来这没什么不好，但人性的贪婪和制度对过度投机的失去监管，让一切变得本末倒置。 也许，这次过后，把菲特的“价值投资”又会风行。但我们这些不安分，投机倒把的小散，手痒时日子就不好过了。

plankton

不出一月份，肯定会有大批裁人，大萧条的时候失业率是28%？这次可能得上30%。几 乎避免不了了。30%的人没工作，现象一下那是什么情形，犯罪率肯定要升上去。 昨天晚上刚劝完河流，现在我自己的心情也坏下来了。自杀倒不至于，可是没了工作 我。。。

sss111222

是有些失效了，3点57到3点59ES的量不对，NND，没有最哆嗦只有更哆嗦

coolwind

shyuan兄，上次你的图，要不从9/1开始数39天再看看？

wufei!

是啊，很快就没工作了。。。

 

 

原帖由 plankton 于 2008-10-9 17:33 发表 不出一月份，肯定会有大批裁人，大萧条的时候失业率是28%？这次可能得上30%。几乎避免不了了。30%的人没工作，现象一下那是什么情形，犯罪率肯定要升上去。 昨天晚上刚劝完河流，现在我自己的心情也 ...

tape

原帖由 yyber 于 2008-10-9 16:18 发表 大本减息手段有问题。现在才真是panic的时候，401我觉得毫无必要cut。

俺的401k 都-45%昨天

coexist

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-10-9 17:08 发表 我要说的，正好相反。其实我想说，银行业在过去的十年间，才是不正常的呢。现在终于要慢慢回归正常了。银行刚成立的时候，有很高的资金要求。操作上也要求安全第一。他们给人的印象是刻板保守，所以要穿黑色西装。相 ...

....

tape

原帖由 polopolo 于 2008-10-9 16:29 发表 I don't know if you can blame them. After all, if market is this weak, then it will crash sooner or later. The only thing is that it crashed a bit earlier than I expected.

泻得俺都没想到.那也好,get over with it.到底算了

chairmanmeow

现在在反对BAIL OUT的信上签名的教授不知道他们的TENURE保不保得住？

xiaobailong

原帖由 chairmanmeow 于 2008-10-9 18:11 发表 现在在反对BAIL OUT的信上签名的教授不知道他们的TENURE保不保得住？

You'd better ask if Paulson and Bernanke would keep their current jobs.

I still think what the professors did are correct. Support them. The bailout plan itself causes the panic, not the people who against the bailout plan.

tape

原帖由 chairmanmeow 于 2008-10-9 18:11 发表 现在在反对BAIL OUT的信上签名的教授不知道他们的TENURE保不保得住？

有了tenure才敢写

xiaobailong

原帖由 tape 于 2008-10-9 18:17 发表 有了tenure才敢写

One again, it is the bailout plan itself causes the panic.

xiaobailong

Without the plan, there would be no such a sudden panic in public.

polopolo

Disagree,the CP market completely collapsed. It was before the bailout plan even surfaced.

faye

Are we really panic yet? Seriously, I think that many of us still think there will be a bottom and there will be a 'going-up'. Even if some of us have been "all in", we just feel we have learned a lesson by ourselves. ...