Perfect Wave - 2011-Q4

greenback

I like the discussion here!

美眉妹

shyshark

Billyboy

cat2011

snowrider

10/05/2010

Comments are welcome!

大牛Steve

shyshark

Ed02

李隆基

snowrider

10/16/2011


Comments are welcome!

大牛Steve

这个浪数得好，及时，学习了。
未来的走法与班长的测算相吻合。

snowrider

Some discussion:

Quote from jas_in_hbca:
That wave count down to SP 800 or so is my wave count as well and i expect many other E wavers also. Makes me think from the contrarian side that it won't happen.

Hi jas_in_hbca, Thanks for nice commenting.  I have been talking to myself a while before receiving feedbacks.  The wave count down to 800-900 area is the replica of the fractal of 2007-2009.  This assumption works so far so good.  We will need to change wave count if the market tells us otherwise.

Quote from jas_in_hbca:
i haven't seen D & E wave labels before. Should they be some kind of 'X' wave ?

Some EW technicians mark 05/02/2011 as an "X".  It is also a valid count because after an "X", there will be an ABC, which matches what the current wave movement.

Quote from jas_in_hbca:
I also see the 2009 and 2011 moves as impulsive (1, 2,3,4,5 count) . Can corrective waves take a 5-3-5  structure ? I think they can but been awhile since i've read prechters book.  If impusive then the 2011 move could be a wave 1 of a larger 3. that would surprise alot of people.

Anyway just thinking out loud. Nice to see your charts.

It does not really matter too much now if the moves in 2009 and 2011 are impulsive or not because we do see a big 5-3-5 structure from 2009 to 2011.  Once a 5-3-5 is formed, next piece of wave movement will be either resuming or reversing.  If the wave continues in the same direction, the 5-3-5 becomes the 123 of the whole 12345.  If the wave reverses, the 5-3-5 becomes the corrective wave of a higher timeframe (this scenario is the preferred count that we have now).

About RP, he has contributed a lot of ideas/thoughts to the EW world.  But there are something that I don't agree.  And he has been wrong on SP for more than 10 or 20 years.  I used to read his analysis every week (bi-week?  I cannot remember), but I stopped reading that about 15 years ago because it seemed to me that RP does not really understand wave patterns (and how those patterns got formed by the market).  I suspect that he never really traded by using wave analysis; he would have been wiped out many times long time ago otherwise.

snowrider

Some discussion:

people who are in love with elliot wave have a selective seeing problem, when it works out they jump up and down and as in most cases it dont work out they make no mention of it on wall street you have 2 groups, those losing money and in love with EV and those who make big money who like to laugh at EV and other indicators

I spent 2 years there

Hedge212 - Thanks for commenting.  Sorry to hear that you have "spent 2 years there" (with EW) and without any success.  EW is actually one of the best TA approaches that I have experienced with.  A mature EW technician will not have any "selective seeing problem" because all scenarios need to be considered.  And "when it works out", they won't "jump up and down" because everything is known and just another same old thing that there is nothing new under the sun.  If the preferred wave count does not work, the alternative count takes over right away, and why do "they make no mention of it"???

I understand that you have big frustration on EW ... "on wall street ... those losing money and in love with EW" ... so you departed from EW because it did not get you what you wanted?!  Please honestly ask yourself if one should blame her teacher if she is not able to pass an exam?  Let me tell you the truth, a 3-year-old kid's stock pick will be better than that from the average fund managers on wall street.

snowrider

Some discussion:

MHP一下，如果按照这个spx的理解交易，若要先等小wave去1100，甚至short到1100的话，就把这个小牛市完全错过了（说不定还亏）。 请教一下，在这种情况下，wave专家们怎么处理呢？

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yupek - 問得好!  Let me explain this.  When you enter a trade, the first thing you need to know is what your trading timeframe is.

If the timeframe is a long term one, you see that the preferred wave count on 09/30/2011's monthly chart shows where a good buying area is.  The long term wave count was expecting a huge rebound anytime soon in October.

If the timeframe is a short term one, you see that the preferred wave count on 10/05/2011 (before I went to vacation) daily chart shows a short term target is above 1200.  Two questions: 1. Would you short on 10/06/2011 (I probably would if I was not away and incurred some small DT loss), and 2. Would you go long on 10/06/2011?  For an EW technician, the wave count needed a small adjustment after the market closed on 10/06/2011.  I call it "紅三兵" (asia term), and people here call it "三白兵".  I would not expect it to have correction back down to 1100 area because the formation is strongly bullish.

In conclusion, trading with different timeframes in the same market could have different results.  I have been expecting 破底翻 for a long time (please check out my past posts).  I have been shorting SP and buying 3x bear ETFs the week before it 破底.  I have also started accumulated long term bull position everytime SP dipped.  All bearish position was liquidated when it 破底 10/03 and 10/04, and also comes with a heavy adding up to my long term bull position.

Why do so?  A trend won't end unless a false break occurs.  That (破底翻) was what we EW technicians expected.

snowrider

Some discussion:

油肉跟SP 是正相关， 这个好像是对的。 两者都面临回调。...

他兩目前是"正相关", 但也有可能走成負相關甚至不相關, 這些偶都不care, 偶只管TA不管誰當皇帝

...日元不会再退到 76 以下吧。 我看是就这么上去了。

也有可能"就这么上去了", 但如果是如此走, 則不夠漂亮, 因為沒殺
若它是個股偶來操盤, 偶必殺破底才來翻

大牛Steve

仔细拜读了雪骑版主在《下周会不会开始大跌》里的点评。

我在股市中的时间不长，学习波浪理论不到两年的时间，一直苦于找不到学习的对象。
在波浪理论的学习过程中，你的规范和想象，给了我极大的启示，你是我的老师和知音啊。
感谢你的到来，让我有机会对波浪的理解特别是表达，有了一个突破。

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2011-10-17 22:39
仔细拜读了雪骑版主在《下周会不会开始大跌》里的点评。

我在股市中的时间不长，学习波浪理论不到两年的 ...

大牛 - 別別別 ...  這做行情跟下棋一樣 ...  我們都在互相學習 ... 有時我看到了某一步棋 ... 有時你看到了另一步棋 ... 重點是大家能 share 看法 ... 那麼 這個棋下起來就容易多了 ...

棋王

搬把椅子来学习。雪骑的课是一定要听的。

haohao

大牛Steve 发表于 2011-10-17 23:39
仔细拜读了雪骑版主在《下周会不会开始大跌》里的点评。

我在股市中的时间不长，学习波浪理论不到两年的 ...

偶觉得学习波浪理论是要看悟性的。。 大牛本身是Chief Engineer.. 本身经常要看图画图， 所以学起波浪理论来特别有感觉。。 不像偶。。 看见那些waves 上上下下的。。一下就晕菜了。。尼玛 。

大牛加油。。 偶挺你！！