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发表于 2011-1-27 09:32 AM
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Jobless Claims
Released on 1/27/2011 8:30:00 AM For wk1/22, 2011
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 404 K 403 K 405 K 375 K to 425 K 454 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 413.0 K 428.75 K
Highlights
The Labor Department is blaming snow storms in the South for a very disappointing and totally unexpected 51,000 rise in initial jobless claims to 454,000 for the January 22 week (prior week revised 1,000 lower to 403,000). But unfortunately the jump also reflects what the Labor Department calls "normal" volatility in the numbers at this time of year, which is the heaviest time for initial claims (Labor Department comments provided by Market News International).
The four-week average jumped 15,750 to 428,750 which is nearly 15,000 higher than a month ago and which suddenly points to trouble for the monthly employment report. Continuing claims also rose, up 94,000 to 3.991 million in data for the January 15 week. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose one tenth to 3.2 percent. In unadjusted data for the January 8 week, the department reports that 9.41 million people claimed unemployment benefits, down from 9.63 million in the prior week.
Heavy weather may be playing a major negative role in January economic data. Hopefully it will be just a one-time effect that will quickly reverse. Markets are showing limited reaction, at least initially, to today's report.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Initial jobless claims for the January 15 week fell an unexpectedly sharp 37,000 to 404,000 from a revised 441,000 the prior week. The latest decline more than offset the prior week's 30,000 boost. With recent weekly volatility, the four-week average likely provides the best insight. The average is down 4,000 to 411,750 and is down more than 14,000 from a month ago. |
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