下周INDU会有higher high,so will SPX,但是这个higher high不是decisively breakout of the SPX 01/18 highs,因为下周INDU最终收红的可能性很大,因此1-2-3 Trend Change pattern,依然有成立的可能。不过,既使1-2-3 Trend Change pattern依然有成立的可能,我现在还没有证据可以确认下周1-2-3 Trend Change pattern可以确认。
如果下周真有higher high的话,最大的可能是on 01/26,换句话说,01/26可能是pivot day。
先说说为什么INDU会有higher high and so will SPX,为什么INDU最终可能weekly收红。
下面的图是主要论据。INDU up 8 weeks in a row, the next week most likely was in red but a higher high was guaranteed in THE MOST RECENT YEARS。如果测试整个INDU history的话,虽然并不保证下周一定收红,但是short at the Friday’s close (that’s 01/21) and cover at the first down week close, it was 79% winning rate。因此,总体看起来,下周INDU收红的结论还是有一定的可信度的。
既然短期都不能确认是否pullback结束了,那么,中期是否top了,只能wait and see了。下面的图只是给个概念,不是说就要跌到那里了:一旦中期correction开始的话,the general target大约是SPX 1220 to 1230。
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SIGNAL COMMENT
QQQQ 01/20 S
NDX Weekly UP BPNDX is way too overbought.
IWM
IWM Weekly *DOWN *No lower low to confirm yet, but the sell off is strong, so downgrade the trend to down from up.
CHINA
CHINA Weekly DOWN
EEM
EEM Weekly UP
XIU.TO 01/06 S
XIU.TO Weekly UP
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Cobra 发表于 2011-1-22 21:50