灌水贴

jsl

I don't worry about VIX.

Given the uncertainty in the economy, VIX will soon find its bottom. Market can still go up though.

 

oil is close to its mid term top. it can still do a final or double push up to 120 level. [speculation: then drop with the overall market]

 

INTC undid what GE has done, interesting, partly because GE earnings wasn't that bad.

 

The sentiment is that the market will continue go up for a couple of days. Some may feel like being squeezed.

oldfrog

Just want to add a quote from JSL's comment on another thread so make it easier to follow. "spx will go to 1400"

jsl

原帖由 oldfrog 于 2008-4-17 08:35 发表 Just want to add a quote from JSL's comment on another thread so make it easier to follow. "spx will go to 1400"

To make it clear, I chose 1400+ as the worst senario for shorts within one month. I wrote SDS May $55 put on the previous peak of SPX and wouldn't mind to have that excised. After another possible small rally and consolidation, the market will be in the real test. I still beleive another leg down, but I won't gamble on it.

 

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-17 10:10 发表 To make it clear, I chose 1400+ as the worst senario for shorts within one month. I wrote SDS May $55 put on the previous peak of SPX and wouldn't mind to have that excised. After another poss ...

 

agree. i think it's a mental test for both bulls and bears. for bulls, whether to wait for the next leg down to establish long positions. for bears, whether bet for the next leg down. the index shows indecision recently, but i believe eventually fundamentals will work its way out.

 

disclaimer: don't take my word as bullish-biased. you can think the fundamental to be either bullish or bearish.

littletiger

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-14 01:21 发表 Cobra,你每天的update是不必要的。当然，你总觉得对大家的支持过意不去，但如果长期下去，有害无益

Agree, weekly update plus some updates on important turn points is fine.

 

LT

jsl

surprise, surprise, I have to say about GOOG.

Normally, I won't make a good deal about a single company. Given the size of GOOG and the amount of beat, I am willing to give the benefit of doubt to the economy.

 

highlights:

20% click growh, not fantastic, lower than the 50% before, but still encouraging during this downbeat time.

50% internation business. I am little surprised by this. but it is true. It was about 40% in 2005.

international sales up 55%, I can understand this

currency translation counts for $202M out of $1.31B

GOOG has 63% internet search market share

Revenue $3.7B, beat estimate by $100M

 

thoughts:

Firms only pull out of ads under extreme conditions.

More people staying at home are clicking like crazy :), guess who?

Don't know how much the analysts have put the currency translation into consideration. $202M is about 15% of the reported income. Backward adjustment may also put the revenue below the estimates.

 

questions:

Do those ads clicks actually generate sales?

How long can the interantional brothers help U.S.?

Will the internet growth help the economy?

More bargain hunting on the internet?

 

 

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-17 20:24 编辑 ]

LDK

I disagree. Daily update is important, especially at such ER season. Also, if you don't want to read, nobody force you to read.

 

 

原帖由 littletiger 于 2008-4-17 14:52 发表 Agree, weekly update plus some updates on important turn points is fine.   LT

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-17 20:13 发表 surprise, surprise, I have to say about GOOG. Normally, I won't make a good deal about a single company. Given the size of GOOG and the amount of beat, I am willing to give the benefit of doubt to th ...

 

thx for sharing. what's the P/E now with the latest earning number?

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-4-16 00:49 发表 follow this link on wsj.com   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120824292965415733.html   U.S. Bancorp Profit Dips Bank, Others Trust They Can Weather Rise in Credit Losses By DONNA KARD ...

Not much I can find on USB. Will wait until 10-Q out. USB has 31B on MBS, 22B residential mortgage loans on book, Total 153B loans. I wonder if they write-down enough. Having more mid-west/west exposure probably helped. Visa IPO helped to offset the write-downs. My feeling is that they are trying to cook the book in order to save some borrowing cost.

jsl

祖德不让跟贴，就在自己的水桶里灌吧

祖德 笔法好，FA强，need some flexibility on shorts

littletiger

LDK, What i mean is: Cobra's daily summary does provide us a lot of priceless insightful thinking. I have learned a lot. But I am afraid, it takes Cobra too much time so that one day, he completely stops.

jsl

原帖由 还在发呆 于 2008-4-17 22:26 发表   thx for sharing. what's the P/E now with the latest earning number?

somewhere around 31.  Are you are talking about forward P/E or current?

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-19 01:24 编辑 ]

jsl

原帖由 littletiger 于 2008-4-19 01:09 发表 LDK, What i mean is: Cobra's daily summary does provide us a lot of priceless insightful thinking. I have learned a lot. But I am afraid, it takes Cobra too much time so that one day, he completely ...

shoud also encourage independant thinking and reduce outside analysis

还在发呆

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-19 01:09 发表 somewhere around 25.  Are you are talking about forward P/E or current?

 

i mean trailing PE.

oldfrog

hehe, problem solved by oldfrog.  see  http://hutong9.com/viewthread.php?tid=10819&extra=page%3D1

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-19 01:11 发表 shoud also encourage independant thinking and reduce outside analysis

[ 本帖最后由 Cobra 于 2008-4-19 01:53 编辑 ]

nstar

Most ppls like you who are active posters here are more or less experters compare to the majority  of frogs here.
Cobra;s daily charts are  for the majority frogs. If it is not your cup of tea, just ignore it.
I, for one, have learnt a lot from Cobra's precious work.  Thank you, Cobra.

jsl

原帖由 nstar 于 2008-4-19 09:04 发表 Most ppls like you who are active posters here are more or less experters compare to the majority  of frogs here. Cobra;s daily charts are  for the majority frogs. If it is not your cup of t ...

 

你说的有道理。By no means, I discount Cobra's great work. It also has nothing to do with my likes or dislikes. Everybody knows that Hutong has today is because the hard work of Cobra and Xiaobailong. 老亥is the owner, 他是神仙，我就不comment了。

 

I have reasons to say what I said, however. I know how hard to put up some quality work without blending in his own bias and without unwantedly misleading some frogs. We want longevity rather than intensity. Remember, Cobra has his own work. If something such as a fight happens in Hutong(never say never), I don't want people quit with the combination of disappointment and stress. Then "胡同静悄悄" will be on play.

 

Daily update tends to trigger short term emotional fluctuations. If you are not a trader, it will be hard to handle that. I absolutely think that frogs should trade for at least mid-term, long biased, emphasize money management.

Sometimes, you need to think about one problem really hard to learn something of your own. For example, take one of the Cobra's daily charts, have a look at others comments, form you own market view, and propose a few alternatives. I am sure it will be much helpful in learning than reading the charts alone. If you agree with me on this, you don't need a different update everyday.

 

At last, daily chart update is OK, elaborated comments are burdensome. I have notice that Cobra uses more C&P recently, which is a good compromise. Cobra will give major update when significant events happen, of course. He can't help, can he？

 

 

再加一句。Long bias means: 熊市少操作或不操作。祖德的末日论是有道理的，但投资是对抗的一种办法。做空是需要技巧的。

 

[ 本帖最后由 jsl 于 2008-4-19 11:44 编辑 ]

jsl

Starting from the recent quarters,

 

GOOG revenue 5.19B 4.83B 4.23B 3.87B 3.66B

GOOG  income 1.31B 1.21B 1.07B 0.925B  1.00B

Margin roughlys stays the same.

 

rolling 4 quarters revenue is 18.1B, income is 4.51B

 

Assume a  estimation of 25%-30% earnings growth, and GOOG is traded with PEG between 1 and 1.5, then the marketcap will be from 113B - 135B -169B - 203B. The corresponding price are $359,  $431, $539,  $647.

 

Interestingly, GOOG close at $539.

大泡泡

原帖由 jsl 于 2008-4-19 11:32 发表   你说的有道理。By no means, I discount Cobra's great work. It also has nothing to do with my likes or dislikes. Everybody knows that Hutong has today is because the hard work of Cobra and Xi ...

支持一下。 胡同需要长治久安。 哈哈

jsl

【【JSL原创】】

我一直都是一个很猥琐的人。小时候身体不好，所以调戏别家姐姐妹妹的时候经常被护花使者打得鼻青脸肿，心中很是不平。一日无意中闻得附近养猪，杀猪，卖猪肉的老头是隐姓埋名的武林高手。几番犹豫，还是决定登门拜访，心中忐忑不安。老头子看我前来，笑容满面，问我要买几两猪肉。我牙一咬，心一横，反正事也犯过了，揍也挨过了，脸也不要了，就如实招来。哪里想到老头子哈哈大笑，说道：“小崽子论下流比我当年有过之而无不及”。然后带我到后房，让我站在一块空地中间，绕着我走了两圈，捏了捏我身上三十六块骨头。我原本呆若木鸡的站着，觉得半晌没有动静，就回过头撇了一眼。发现老头正摇着头缓缓的踱来踱去。我心中一凉，万灰俱灭。难道上天就对我这么不公平！这时老头瞧见我，先楞了一下神，然后似乎下定了决心，猛然转身走到一个陈旧的小箱子旁边，拿出一个旧的发黄的白布包，打开摊在桌上，露出黑乎乎的一物。我凑近观看，好似一副金属制的鳞页护甲。我抬头望着老头，心中早已连叫着师傅，脸上露出无耻的可怜相。师傅忽然想起手上还油腻腻的，便在围裙上仔细的擦了擦，看了看弄脏了的发黄白布，露出惋惜的神情。这时我才觉得后脖子也是油腻腻的，再看裤子的膝盖处也有四块大大的油斑，心中稍有不满。

 

师傅拉过一把椅子坐下来，慢慢说道：“你人虽机灵，但后脑小，小脑不发达，我诸多上乘武功你是学不成了。但看在你我的缘分上，就传你一拳，二宝，三字。 这一拳吗，就是江湖上滥用的黑虎掏心。” 说教就教，师傅让我站马步，冲直拳。其实看的也多了，不觉得师傅这黑虎掏心和别人的有什么不同。师傅略指点一二，说也就行了。我将信将疑。师傅又接着说：“这黑虎掏心很耗力，要少出拳，出拳则要果断，击要害。你以后慢慢体会吧。”， 又指着那黑甲道：“那就是我为对付银熊特制的救命铁裤衩，七十多年前银熊轰动一时，之后每若干年便再现一次。这甲经得起熊掌，自可在遇到高手之时保你性命。” 说着抖开黑甲，在我身上比量一下，满意的点点头。与其说那是裤衩，不如说是女式泳衣，可以护住腹背要害。又指着白布说：“那也是一宝，以后会有用处。” 师傅长长的出了口气，如获重释，给了我三个字：躲跑投。师傅双手在椅子扶手上推摩了两下，仿佛在活动筋骨，然后站起身来，说：“我要做生意去了，你好自为之吧。” 我心有不甘，不会是师傅敷衍我了事吧。不管怎么说，这布包是宝贝，便磨磨蹭蹭的走出门外。待我离去时，隐约听到师傅在后面轻轻说道：“太像了！”