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发表于 2010-8-11 11:15 AM
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ZT: WSJ.com
* August 11, 2010, 12:08 PM ET
Is the Stock Market’s Post-Fed Pain Mostly Over?
How bad can the market get today? History suggests that the worst of the day’s declines might actually be over.
Bespoke Investment Group went back and looked at six past trading days with moves analogous to today’s. All were days following Fed meetings, on which the S&P fell more than 1% by 10 a.m.
The reasons for the declines varied, but the outcomes were remarkably similar. In each case, the bulk of the declines were done at 10 a.m., as investors digested the Fed news and then looked ahead to the future.
In four of the six cases, stocks actually rose after 10 a.m., although they eked out a gain for the full day only twice. Of course, six data points don’t exactly provide an iron-clad precedent. Stocks could easily break with the past and continue down today. For one thing, there was fresh bad news today, as the trade deficit came in much worse than expected, with exports down and imports up. That weakens hopes for an export-led recovery.
On the two days when stocks continued lower after falling 1% by 10 a.m., the day’s further declines were less than 1%. One of those days came in September 2001, just after the Sept. 11 attacks, in the midst of a long bear market. The other was in Sept. 2002, as stocks were just reaching the end of that same long bearish stretch.
Bespoke checked all the days following a Fed interest-rate announcement going back to 1994, the year the Fed started announcing its interest-rate policy decisions. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-8-11 11:13 AM
