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[灌水] 07/30/2010 白天灌水

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发表于 2010-7-30 09:59 AM | 显示全部楼层


砖铁:
今天早上, 一个傻X的FED官员又出来说了:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Friday said there is unanimity among officials on the central bank's policy-setting panel over providing more support to the economy if the recovery suffers a serious setback.

"I think everyone on the committee is completely on board with the idea that, you know, if things got really bad, we would try to take other action," he said on CNBC television.

Bullard said he has concerns that the Fed's current policy of promising exceptionally low interest rates for an extended period could have the opposite of its intended effect of stimulating growth

But Bullard, repeating comments he made on Thursday, said his research shows the pledge could in fact cause the economy to stall at a point of falling inflation and sluggish growth, mirroring Japan's. Japan for years has struggled to escape from weak or little growth and deflation.

The St. Louis Fed chairman said that with interest rates near zero, the central bank should shift its focus from promising low interest rates to using its printing press to push more credit into the financial system as economic conditions fluctuate.

你们看看BOB是怎么预测的:

RP: This is exactly what's happening today. If there were some smart people out there that said “Let’s short them” in '08, they're not going to short them this time around because many people have decided that we're in a real recovery and the most we can do is double-dip. But as happened to Jesse Livermore, the '29 crash was simply the first shot across the bow. The real destruction occurred from April 1930 to July 1932. Stocks lost over 80 percent of their value over that period. I think that's exactly the kind of environment we're in, and it's going to fool the smartest people on the planet. If you ask the people in the administration, the smartest people on the planet are running the Fed and the Treasury. I think they're going to get fooled. They think they can guarantee all this debt and get away with it; they're even talking about how they're going to make a profit. There's no way that's going to happen. They're going to dig themselves deeper and deeper into the hole until they finally blink. They're going to realize that if they're going to maintain any credibility with creditors on the face of the earth, they're going to have to stop.
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发表于 2010-7-30 09:59 AM | 显示全部楼层
在全世界齐喊“通缩”的时候,

你需要了解“通胀”(通胀预期)何时抬头,对应风险资产配置,

...
X!nG 发表于 2010-7-30 11:50



星星大,给俺们扫盲一下,比喻也可以,拿啥。。。“通胀”(通胀预期)何时抬头,为什么30年T BOND 比10年 TREASURY NOTE YIELD 敏感的多。。。在小黑屋里也可以。。。
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:00 AM | 显示全部楼层
胀吧, 经济就像一头猪,不怕肥,就怕不肥。

肥到一定程度就该宰了。
yaobooyao 发表于 2010-7-30 11:35



    是,现在正在“增肥”过程中,这个过程有多长没人知道,但商品应该会outperform股指。。。。。。
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:02 AM | 显示全部楼层
老大现在涨的商品都是和中国息息相关的品种,所以这个通胀自然还是拿中国说事。注意下周公布的Gl ...
北京哥哥 发表于 2010-7-30 11:55


中国现在是需要原料和能源阿。。。
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:03 AM | 显示全部楼层
星星大,给俺们扫盲一下,比喻也可以,拿啥。。。“通胀”(通胀预期)何时抬头,为什么30年T BOND  ...
shoujie 发表于 2010-7-30 11:59



我刚才已经解释的很白话了啊...

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发表于 2010-7-30 10:03 AM | 显示全部楼层
谁知道 TD 里面能看 USDJPY 吗?
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:05 AM | 显示全部楼层
而基金接到指令则不停的继续买债券
X!nG 发表于 2010-7-30 11:58



    是这个吗?
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:08 AM | 显示全部楼层
金keep pushing up. 是不是等金到头彩。。。
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:08 AM | 显示全部楼层
谁知道 TD 里面能看 USDJPY 吗?
ice_tea 发表于 2010-7-30 12:03



    TD客户用thinkorswim就可以了。

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发表于 2010-7-30 10:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
小小的烧了一点点。。。
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:11 AM | 显示全部楼层
下周一ISM manufaturing. 可能还会失望, 不知道是否expectation已经降低到可以BEAT的程度.
ISM mfg 是集合各地区的, 而这月NY Empire State (7/15) and Phili Fed (7/15)都失望, 只有今天的CHICAGO PMI good.
准备抗战的牛牛要做好震仓的思想准备.
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:14 AM | 显示全部楼层
中国现在是需要原料和能源阿。。。
shoujie 发表于 2010-7-30 12:02



    说白了,中国一直很看重两样商品 - 铜和粮食。

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发表于 2010-7-30 10:22 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 X!nG 于 2010-7-30 12:24 编辑
是这个吗?
永恒罗马 发表于 2010-7-30 12:05



除了这个扯淡外,

通缩派的资产配置里会同时买债券以及商品(对冲),

今天的数据被两“派”人分别解读,所以有人买股,有人买券,

但值得强调的是,不管是通缩还是通胀,大家都狂买商品,

所以你看到今天商品,债券,股票一起在涨...

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发表于 2010-7-30 10:24 AM | 显示全部楼层
除了这个扯淡外,

通缩派的资产配置里会同时买债券以及商品(对冲),

今天的数据被两“派”人 ...
X!nG 发表于 2010-7-30 12:22



   

那又怎么让债券收益走高呢?假如大家都狂买债券的话。。。
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:26 AM | 显示全部楼层
失望也没见这周跌多少. bullish

下周一ISM manufaturing. 可能还会失望, 不知道是否expectation已经降低到可以BEAT的程度.
ISM mfg 是集合 ...
90ufo 发表于 2010-7-30 12:11
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:26 AM | 显示全部楼层
You are brave. I will not short at such a day.

小小的烧了一点点。。。
shoujie 发表于 2010-7-30 12:09
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:29 AM | 显示全部楼层
DT在这儿可以小烧一下
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:29 AM | 显示全部楼层
Xing, POT is very strong, do you think it will have head and shoulder break out, targeting $125?
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:29 AM | 显示全部楼层
要有点动作了,振幅越来越小。压大还是压小?

     VS      
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发表于 2010-7-30 10:31 AM | 显示全部楼层
牛旗已经扯出来了。
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