SPX Notes 2009

Teddy

agent smith

lake3peat

Many thanks!!!

Persistance

Thanks Bay Lao Da and QJ!!!

smartll

The worst is coming....

开小差

thx.Bay

QQQ

Bay, other than looking at SPX, I think it is important to look at US$. We can see the money is flowing out of bonds recently.  mkt is responding to US$ moves. US$ is at cross road now, either breakout from here heading to 89 or pull back from here to 80-83. It's move will make clear path for SPX.

bayliner1979

US bonds are not good for investors.  Sooner or later money will flow out of bonds.  But I doubt the same money will flow into stock market.

I think SPX won't exceed 876 even in the most bullish scenario.
For the mid-term market, the gap between NYADV and NYUPV must be filled before a bull run. [url=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P]http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P[/url]

Bay, other than looking at SPX, I think it is important to look at US$. We can see the money is flowing out of bonds recently.  mkt is responding to US$ moves. US$ is at cross road now, either breakou ...

QQQ 发表于 2009-2-15 13:31

lite1067

gap between NYADV and NYUPV
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-15 15:05

bay 老大，in the past year, the gap has been filled a couple of times but the bull run is still far away?

BTW, on the bond market, in the past month, $$ just came out of treasury market but the corporate bond market (both IG and HY) is doing quite well. Well, US treasury is about 40% market value of the whole bond market and this percentage will go up for sure as US is in huge deficit.

davidino

Bay老大的信号很有用，多谢了。

jasmin256

开小差

thx. QQQ and Bay Laoda

bayliner1979

没啥好说的，一切按计划进行着。

明天可能会回测810，走一个inverted hammer到775.  

本周OE SPY可能收在82.x。

$CPCE breaks out finally.
大跌在即。
今天SPY的phantom bars熊得不得了，前天846左右的phantom bar也有两次回测，可以认为差不多了（现在感觉只有stockcharts.com 15-min以上SPYcharts显示的phantom bars比较准，其它的phantom bars可忽略）。

Expectation slightly changed.
2 possibilities：
(1)可能明天就开始2+1+2的大跌或3+大跌，这个是Cobra0.0.1chart上的东西。
(2)还可能往上串串，苟延一两天的残喘，回测EMA(13)后再大跌，但回测EMA(34)的可能极小。

大跌目标SPX 700。
710前不宜建多仓。

lite1067

没啥好说的，一切按计划进行着。

明天可能会回测810，走一个inverted hammer到775.  


bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-17 16:28

sofa...

thanks, bay laoda.

肥皂泡

没啥好说的，一切按计划进行着。

明天可能会回测810，走一个inverted hammer到775.  


bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-17 16:28

Matirx里面没有这个图啊

benmao

Persistance

Thank you, Bay Lao Da!!!  You are amazing!!!  Does it mean we will say goodbye to SPX 800 for a long time?

xiaoyaoxl

bay, stockchart日图上 spy日图上有到82.5的phantom bar，这个算数么

QQQ

292# bayliner1979

Let me continue, after OE, say bye-bye to 8.. handle....

benmao

just a short-term bounce to kill bear in OE?

jasmin256

thanks