Perfect Wave - 2011-Q4

Diver

snowrider 发表于 2011-12-22 10:32
大家知道為何今天沒有跳一個超大洞上去開盤?

是否要大膽買入

I guess this way is more powerful with solid steps than a big gap up opening.

This is the third time challenging 200DMA. The first two gapped up open above 200DMA and both attempts were rejected and fell back down below 200DMA. Thus I think this time MM will try a different way: no big gap up above 200DMA, instead, gradually but steadily push up like a bulldozer.

George25

snowrider 发表于 2011-12-21 21:17
cat2011 - That is a good allocation.  偶基本上與妳的類似 偶現在長線股票多頭倉位一直沒變(自從上次倉 ...

"2011-11-23
http://hutong9.net/forum.php?mod ... 9&fromuid=17450
持倉報告:
股票長線多頭倉: 51%
Cash: 49%"

I have 4 accounts:
1. The first one is the biggest account, loaded over 100% with long position. Still hold all of them for the Santa Rally, at least to the new year, probably much longer. May adjust positions after new year.
2. The Second oneloaded 99% long position but today reduced half position.~50% in cash.
3. the third account is a small account but loaded 80% in long position, 20% in cash.
4. the fourth account is the smallest account, 100% in cash.

snowrider

回 Diver "Please keep up your updating daily, I appreciate your hard working. I may keep asking you, if you do not mind my bothering daily. Thank you very much.  发表于 2011-12-22 21:28" -

偶也許沒有甚麼看法的改變所以沒寫
沒問題 盡量騷擾偶 那偶才知道偶思故偶在
今年沒甚麼下雪 所以偶還在灌水
往年這時都已滑雪滑瘋了

snowrider

回复 Diver 的帖子

這個晚點有空偶來說明

snowrider

回复 George25 的帖子

Geroge25 - 恭喜恭喜 那你今年大賺過個豐收年

snowrider

Diver 发表于 2011-12-22 21:32
I guess this way is more powerful with solid steps than a big gap up opening.

This is the third ...

I guess this way is more powerful with solid steps than a big gap up opening.

This is the third time challenging 200DMA. The first two gapped up open above 200DMA and both attempts were rejected and fell back down below 200DMA. Thus I think this time MM will try a different way: no big gap up above 200DMA, instead, gradually but steadily push up like a bulldozer.

Diver - Yes, you are totally right about the market's move.  Let's make an assumption that MM is going to push the market all the way up and penetrate 200DMA.  If you are the MM, what approach would you take to reach your goal?  Most people (not me because I don't watch any MA or indicator) believe that 200DMA is a resistance.  The least effort for MM to take over 200DMA is by gapping up.
1. If it was to gap from Wednesday's close to above 200DMA, it needed a huge jump.  In order to make it happen, a bigger and better news was needed BEFORE 9:30AM the market opened.  It did not happen, so MM take the second approach.
2. MM started pushing the market slowly up ... little by litte ... not too rush not to hurry.  Why?  If it surged too quick before 200DMA during the market hour, it would triigger heavey sell-off.  Then the market closed at day high.  OK, what next?  With the approach, the best time to push up above resistance is after hour.  That is what is happening now.  If everything is still in MM's control and our assuption is still correct, tomorrow morning when the market opens, it will open at above 12/08's high.  Nevertheless, MM will say ... mission completed ... 200DMA is taken over.

NYQ

snowrider

12/25/2011

Happy Holidays!

Comments are welcome.

李隆基

还是SP500那张图的可能性高。

snowrider

Quote from ammo:

snow would you do this monthly ,i havent attempted to learn ew,but if this were wave 5,whats the longer /shorter than prev wave rule,or measured move,thanks and merry xmas

ammo - Thanks.  Elliott Wave Principle is a very powerful tool.  You'd better start learning that if you believe in Natural law.  To answer your question, "if this were wave 5", my convention would label it as abcde instead of 12345 because the wave from the low of 2009-03 did not show a healthy impulsive movement.  So, say, if we call it abcde, then your question is how high the final segment could go, right?  OK, you see the second up leg from 2010-07 1011 to 2011-05 1371 has time span of 10 months and price span of 360.  You can make a guess that the max target of the final up leg won't exceed the time A and the price B before a big correction because a rule says that the 3rd wave won't be the shortest.  The answer can be measured from the correction of the second up leg, and it will be:

A = 10 months + 2011-10 = 2012-08
B = 360 + 1075 = 1435

inosine

对xgld觉得plan A 可能性不大，这么深的pullback 不太可能一个小double bottom 后直接上去，再下1leg的plan B可能大。

cat2011

Thank you for your update. Happy Holiday!

328

snowrider 发表于 2011-12-25 15:22
12/25/2011

Happy Holidays!

Snow,

首先，祝节日快乐

我注意到你好像不是一定用ABCDE或12345来label impulsive wave，有时用ABC，见如下chart，我用红线标了。但是为什么这次在[[B]].[C]中，一定用ABCDE呢？如果将来真走ABC的话，你认可3-3-3的correction wave吗？还是一定要3-3-5？谢谢。

snowrider

328 发表于 2011-12-27 13:03
Snow,

首先，祝节日快乐

328 - 謝謝 這問題問得有深度! 妳知道波有古典學派(RN) 及後來加註的現代學派(RP) 那偶的是更進一層的加註(x氏加註) ... 這"x"是個placeholder of my last name ... 開玩笑 :) 偶是根本只想賺錢而不想出名 :) 所以偶們就稱之為現代雪派(SRP or SP, i.e., SnowRider Pi).

在偶的雪派中定義: 凡是不健康的浪(推動與否) 都不標示12345

關於妳highlight的紅線 它明顯是 3-3-9 (雪派中 3-3-5 的 variation) 所以標ABC

關於目前進行中的可以是 I II III IV V 亦可是 A B C D E 但目前偶們不知道市場將如何演進
為何都可能?  因為 標示中的 A 是個漂亮健康的推動所以可以是個 I
目前在進行的 可能是 C 亦可能是 III
是否市場會衰竭而形成 Ending Diagonal (ABCDE)?  偶們要看這 C 及 D 怎麼走

妳的假設(3-3-3)恢常好
那是一種有可能的算法
謝謝分享

hunting

回复 snowrider 的帖子

現代雪派(SRP or SP, i.e., SnowRider Pi). 顶老大，很酷，，，

天地

大牛Steve

人生爱恨交错，悲喜一瞬而过；
坦荡面对生活，开心无时无刻。

在2012新年来临之际:
祝您，健康、平安、幸福，喜事多多！

snowrider

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