Perfect Wave - 2011-Q4

spo

老大，期待update

cat2011

Update, please, is it taking your gray line path?

snowrider

回复 spo 的帖子

謝謝關注
請看以下

snowrider

cat2011 发表于 2011-12-8 19:06
Update, please, is it taking your gray line path?

謝謝關注

12/08/2011 SP Intraday

Comments are welcome!



SP 紫線走法未變  其他的東東走法已變
SP 目前可能在走 [[B]].[C].II
如果假設是正確 則目前買入一搏大漲是機會

cat2011

snowrider

回复 snowrider 的帖子

Some micro alternative counts is possible:
wave-a becomes wave-4
wave-b becomes wave-5
now we are in wave-II.a
and then wave-II will complete at spot index 1210-1215 (50% pullback) in that case

snowrider

spo & cat2011 - 謝謝你們的關注 若妳昨晚有如偶建議的大膽買入 現妳可將倒限移到今天的 day low 下面 (基本上若萬一被打出來是沒有甚麼賠的) 恭喜發財 :)

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2011-12-9 11:43
spo & cat2011 - 謝謝你們的關注 若妳昨晚有如偶建議的大膽買入 現妳可將倒限移到今天的 day low 下面 (基本 ...

若妳昨有進場買進　現千萬不要被這小利潤暈了頭　今天這行情只要能收在這裡偶就十分高興 因為只要能收在這裡 下週一就恢常有可能一個大洞跳上去　所以一定要持多倉過週末去賭它一個大漲下週

spo

snowrider 发表于 2011-12-9 15:52
若妳昨有進場買進　現千萬不要被這小利潤暈了頭　今天這行情只要能收在這裡偶就十分高興 因為只要能收在這 ...

大盘走出了你预测的走势，厉害！多谢提醒指教。

snowrider

12/10/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

Since you post the chart every week, is it ok to have some comments about the last week's prediction, if it is good, and if not, how you adjusted to it, etc. I think that it will be much appreciated. Thanks.
...

yupek - Thanks for reading my weekly posts.  My prediction is based on the Elliott Wave principle that everyone can find tons of references on the web.  About last week's prediction, say SP for example, my preferred count is the purple line.  The market could have taken wave-II right away last Monday.  In that case, wave-I.4 would be a simple correction.  However, the market went flat for 3 more days, and wave-I.4 became a complex correction.  Last Thursday's sell-off could be the final kick of an irregular wave-II before wave-III's marching north.

It's hard to answer the question about how to adjust wave count.  If one wants to trade EW, at any moment, s/he needs to have a backup plan - that is the alternative count.  When the market does not move in favor of one's preferred count, the alternative count may become the preferred one.  Remember one thing ... anything can happen.  Therefore, trading with EW is a process of constantly thinking.  As I mentioned many times, it's just like playing chess with the market.  I don't mind to share my view every weekend because I will be happy if readers make money and also share their thoughts with me.  More people watch the game (of chess), more thoughtful the wave count would be.

snowrider

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"大牛Steve  这轮升浪结束的时间点或许在年末，过不了明年开年。  发表于 2011-12-10 23:09"

哈太好了 謝謝大牛你的想法正合偶意 你看偶猜[[B]].[C].V的結束時間點正是吻合你的看法

snowrider

看这个图 偶是死定了 5555555555555

thirdwheel - 不會吧 多空現在都有機會 短期多頭上走 中期大空頭要來了 長期卻又是大多頭

大牛Steve

snowrider 发表于 2011-12-11 12:40
回
"大牛Steve  这轮升浪结束的时间点或许在年末，过不了明年开年。  发表于 2011-12-10 23:09"

snowrider

Thanks for comments. It is very helpful.
I just feel that Thursday's correction is too shallow. It is still possible that we have two legs down. So we may revisit Thursday's low or even go to 1220. I'm wondering why you think that we should go up from here.
...

yupek - Yes, it is possible (and anything is possible).  Please see the grey line alternative count.  Also I explained that as a micro alternative count in last Thursday's posts.  Say, if you have bot SP at Thursday's MOC, now your STP order can be placed 1 point right below last Thursday's low.  If the STP gets hit, you don't lose nothing.  We don't know if it will happen, but when an opportunity comes, one needs to evaluate if it is worth the risk to bet.  Say, if you did not enter the long of SP at Thursday's MOC, when do you want to enter?  After breaking out weekly high?  Not really a good idea because once it happens, where are you going to place your STP order?  It will be the same price (1 point right below last Thursday's low), but your risk will be much higher.

cat2011

still hold my long, not much though,  most in cash. Thank you very much!

aimei

美眉妹

iguana

大牛Steve