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发表于 2010-6-30 11:17 AM
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(ZT) 這是被Jim Cramer尊稱為最偉大技術分析師對於市場的分析，她以前在高盛做技術分析，供參考。
Staving Off Capitulation
By Helene Meisler
The question was whether Tuesday was capitulation. In the strictest sense of what I look for in a capitulatory move, I would say it wasn't.
The main reason is that I prefer it if we break a level everyone is watching --in this case 1040 on the S&P 500 -- and that didn't happen. Typically, when you break that level you get capitulation, but when you keep hanging on you get more of a feeling the market is being saved.
That being said, there were several positives in Tuesday's session.
The first positive is that the TRIN, or the Arms Index, developed by RealMoney's Richard Arms, soared to a reading over 5. By now you must realize that these super-high TRIN days tend to lead to at least a short-term rally.
The most surprising positive to me was that the New York Stock Exchange cumulative advance/decline line made a higher low.
As I noted during the day on Tuesday, there were also fewer stocks at new lows vs. the last time we were down here.
Volume also was quite high, which tends to be more bullish than bearish. As I've explained, if they weed out the weak holders, it's better.
Also the semiconductors, the transportation stocks and the utilities didn't make lower lows. Nor did the euro vs. the dollar, which is the most surprising since everyone seems so intent on calling for the euro's demise.
So while I would prefer to see a sharp move down in the morning on Wednesday to flush out those who thinking holding on to 1040 is a good thing, I fear that in the end we'll get saved here at 1040 and stave off the capitulation we need.
On the chart, you're aware of the 1040 level, but a steep downtrend line comes in here at 1040-ish. So a bounce from this level seems reasonable.
The problem with the chart of the S&P and all other charts is resistance overhead; it's everywhere. So this ties back to my capitulation situation. At this point in time so many are looking for a rally to sell into. Therefore, that keeps a lid on stocks if they should rally. At some point they should get fed up with waiting and just sell their stocks; that is when we get capitulation.
And that is why I dislike it when a market gets saved, which I fear this one will be.
So that I don't leave you on a down note, I will note that the move in bonds has become front and center. Everyone watches the spread between the two-year and 10-year yields, but I too watch the spread between the 10-year and 30-year yields. I was surprised to see someone else discuss it on television Tuesday.
It has soared up to the area of 100 basis points. This is not terribly common. On the chart, you can see three peaks just over that 100 basis point area on the left side of the chart; that coordinates with the three lows at the 2002-2003 bottom.
Then you will see a series of peaks on the right side of the chart. One is the Bear Stearns bottom, one is the March 2009 bottom, the next two are May 2009 (when the banks passed their stress tests) and November 2009 when the Dubai crisis came around.
I think this chart tells us that when folks finally start selling their bonds stocks make a bottom. So we are getting closer. The problem is that we're close to the level but we don't know if the level is here or, as it was in 2002-2003, 10 basis points higher.
To summarize, I thought we might see some capitulation but I think all we got was a decent round of selling with positive divergences. It probably leads to an oversold rally and not much more. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-6-30 10:50 AM
