Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2

snowrider

大牛Steve 发表于 2012-6-2 04:15
雪骑老大，
与II的时间跨度比较，昨天的暴跌使得标普500的IV形成可能性降低。
然而，结合道指不规则的顶部 ...

大牛 - 你指出了一個非常重要的觀點 "时间跨度"  偶非常同意你的看法!  在偶圖中的灰線算法是 running flat 以形成 IV 來反映市場的弱勢 (除了紫線的崩盤走法之外)

时时是好时

看波图显示欧元会有较强的反弹而同期金子处弱势或下跌。
尽管雪老大说过各个市场间的相关性不可靠，但还是很怀疑欧元反弹会导致美元下跌，从而给金子的涨势提供强大的动力。

NYQ

很怀疑欧元反弹会导致美元下跌------EUR/USD is the biggest currency pair, of cause co-relation is very high. EUR is about 50% in dollar index. I don't think snowride include these two when he talked about intermarket co-relations among markets.

snowrider

时时是好时 发表于 2012-6-3 10:36
看波图显示欧元会有较强的反弹而同期金子处弱势或下跌。
尽管雪老大说过各个市场间的相关性不可靠，但还是 ...

雪派的主要原則之一就是只專注於你所交易的東西  對於其它的東西一切都蒙上眼睛不要看  聊過很多次千萬不要去關心市場之間的關聯性 - 因為許多從正相關變成負相關或變成不相關

snowrider

NYQ 发表于 2012-6-3 11:45
很怀疑欧元反弹会导致美元下跌------EUR/USD is the biggest currency pair, of cause co-relation is very ...

偶從不管市場之間的關聯性  就算心理有所猜想  操作時也堅決 trade what we see
關於美元指數 那是不重要的 一點都不重要的 不要去擔心它  以前在做交叉匯率時 沒有所謂美元指數的匯率交易 只有美元指數的期貨 而其成交量極低 沒人做!  談到外匯 就是 4 個 (或 6 個 如果要加上澳幣及加幣)  以前在國內偶什麼都做  現在偶就是只做 2 個而已: 日幣 及 歐元(前德國馬克)

时时是好时

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-3 13:34
偶從不管市場之間的關聯性  就算心理有所猜想  操作時也堅決 trade what we see
關於美元指數 那是不重要 ...

顶老大，谢谢解惑！！

NYQ

snowrider 发表于 2012-5-21 00:55
大牛 - 謝謝你整理了這麼完善的各國股指走勢圖  偶明白你的問題  根據EW理論在不規則修正中  它的C波會是 ...

偶还是不明白两位波波大师在说什么，但已经开始认可了ｔｈｅ　ｄｏｗｎ　ｉｓ　ｆａｒｆｒｏｍ　ｏｖｅｒ．细节再慢慢学吧。

bucks

回复 snowrider 的帖子

我还是觉得SP500 灰线的可能性大一点，明后两天有可能最后一击，妞妞缴械，完成三浪。当然我自己的系统是走一步看一步，目前
日线：SELL；
HOURLY: SELL，but may be close to a reversal, will watch closely tomorrow

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-3 02:48
06/03/2012

Comments are welcome!

why do you expect gold drop big? it broke out the bottom last Friday. thank you

snowrider

lilitulip 发表于 2012-6-3 20:36
why do you expect gold drop big? it broke out the bottom last Friday. thank you

lilitulip - It's hard to explain with few words why I have a bearish view on gold in the near term.  You know that I trade solely based on my wave counts.  Let's take a look my wave count back on 05/26/2012.  I expected gold to form a wave-D (after ABC) and then wave-E to end the bear market (purple line).  I wanted to see the wave-D in a diagonal triangle - a normal situation.  Let's take a look the wave count from yesterday (06/02/2012), the scenario for wave-D was still valid (but in a different wave format).  From the current price, most likely it has two possible ways to go (in normal condition): 1. collapse (purple line) to start wave-E, or 2. consolidate (grey line) and then to start the bull run.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-3 21:05
lilitulip - It's hard to explain with few words why I have a bearish view on gold in the near term ...

With that said, (in normal situation) I bet gold to go down from last Friday's high for either entering a consolidation or an impulsive down wave.  If it collapses, I make big.  If it goes flat, I still be able to exit easily.  ... Note that all these are based on the assumption that the market behavior will be in normal condition.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-3 21:11
With that said, (in normal situation) I bet gold to go down from last Friday's high for either ent ...

BTW, I forgot to mention that no matter which count (purple or grey), I see gold will set a new all time high by the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

lilitulip

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-3 23:39
BTW, I forgot to mention that no matter which count (purple or grey), I see gold will set a new al ...

thank you

NYQ

赠雪派波波：

波大沟深-------by NYQ

snowrider  哈哈哈! 花花公子版上面很多波大沟深的 -----mind you, there are subtle defferences: yours becomes more and more attractive as time went by, while play boy's are less so with time.

NYQ

大牛Steve  我学习EW的时间大概两年多吧，是个大龄学者。 ---------大牛就不要谦虚了：两年对炒股来说时间上是小学，但是你对波的理解已经是当之无愧的大哥大了。还请多多赐教。
我就是藤野先生课上在后排傻笑的那个留级生，虽然不得不认可波派的价值，但一直停留在Ｍurphy那本古书上对波派的介绍。争取波大开课后好好学习。

算是入学申请的　ｐｅｒｓｏｎａｌ　ｓｔａｔｅｍｅｎｔ吧。

snowrider

Two possible scenarios:

vanbj

vanbj

snowrider

I sold all holdings in my small troop: EDZ (2 shots), FAZ, SQQQ at opening and accept the loss.

snowrider

snowrider 发表于 2012-6-7 08:31
I sold all holdings in my small troop: EDZ (2 shots), FAZ, SQQQ at opening and accept the loss.

Wait ... my EDZ did not fill because of STOP LIMIT.  The opening price gapped down too much, and it is far below my LIMIT price.  I am still holding it. ... Nervouse now...